stated that there was no consensus and that the arithmetic averaging of "sentiment" with actual modeling results is statistically incorrect. The 50-50 results you reported here are consistent with the notion that nobody knows, but should not be presented as a probability of recession.
2008 Bespoke Market Poll: Chance of Recession 50/50 [View article]
mnrtrading.blogspot.co...
stated that there was no consensus and that the arithmetic averaging of "sentiment" with actual modeling results is statistically incorrect. The 50-50 results you reported here are consistent with the notion that nobody knows, but should not be presented as a probability of recession.
Why Volatility and Beta Matter [View article]
mnrtrading.blogspot.co.../