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jhooper

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  • Treasuries And The U.S. Dollar: Not A Safe Haven [View article]
    This also helps equities. Regulatory barriers to newcomers protects existing equities. Add to this high unemployment keeps pressure for wage increases in check, and cheap financing allows for debt to be even cheaper than equity.

    The trick will be to watch the subsidy risk in addition to fundamentals, or at least start considering the subsidy mix as part of the fundamentals. Such analysis may help prevent any "flat footedness".
    May 18, 2012. 08:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Treasuries And The U.S. Dollar: Not A Safe Haven [View article]
    The highest deck of the sinking ship.
    May 18, 2012. 08:20 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Demographics And The Likelihood Of A Housing Recovery [View article]
    Texas has one of the most business friendly environments in the US. The main reason people buy houses is because they have a long term expectation that they job they have will be around for a long time. Interest rates, matter, but what matters most is a job someone has faith in.
    May 17, 2012. 06:56 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Treasuries And The U.S. Dollar: Not A Safe Haven [View article]
    "where the real growth and hope and excitement for the entire planet could be coming from the next 100 years."

    Not necessarily. I think it is easy to say that, because we don't know what new technology is just waiting to be discovered. If such technologies are going to be discovered, it would more than likely be in the US instead of a place like India where they are still trying to get indoor plumbing in alot of places.

    If you removed gov price blind regulations that have been instituted for the main purpose of squashing competition, you would probably be amazed at the growth the US could create. But because of the economics of concentrated benefits and diffuse costs, I wouldn't hold your breath for such damaging regulations to be removed anytime soon.
    May 17, 2012. 05:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Will The Greek Drama End? [View article]
    Well, its beneficial for the people in the export business. Its not beneficial for everyone in the economy. People not in the export business in those economies lose purchasing power (which is bascially what a tax does).

    Its like a lost leader for a store. You sell one thing at a discount to get people in the store, then they buy other things. The problem I see is that they aren't letting other areas of their economy develop. Like China, they subsidize exports, but they have to do it buy pegging to US currency. So the dollars they get, they don't invest in other producing assets, just more treasuries. I'm think Europe will do the same.
    May 17, 2012. 12:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Will The Greek Drama End? [View article]
    "strong dollar and weak euro than with the reverse"

    OK. I should have thought about that more. Basically they tax their populace to sell us cheaper exports. If they are willing to do that, then let them. Its like a tax cut for us.
    May 17, 2012. 12:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Will The Greek Drama End? [View article]
    Maybe.

    It will depend if fiscal policy isn't changed. If more regulations and taxes are ramped up at the same time monopolized money mediums are being created, then what you will have is an increasing ratio of money mediums to real asset creation. That's when you get malaise. Unless they go hog wild printing, then you get a hyperinflationary scenario, which I don't think they will do.

    Europe and much of the US suffer under the mistaken assumption that expropriation taxes are vital to "funding" a gov, and that price blind gov regulations of productivity are somehow superior to price sensitive private regulations (ie, if the food is bad in a restaurant, you don't go back - gov bails out the restaurant).

    So, I'm afraid, that at the same time they are issuing notes whose value is derived from their productivity, they will be engaging in policies that will kill that productivity.

    What you are describing is one of the problems with a gold standard. If productivity in other parts of the economy are growing faster than the production of gold money mediums, then you get a deflationary scenario. People have the productivity to justify consumption, but because the gov has decreed gold as the official money medium, then their consumption is held back, resulting in falling prices to induce people to buy.

    This scenario assumes nothing is holding productivity back, so whenever there is deflation these guys all assume its because there is not enough money mediums. So they just assume the solution is to print, and print alone. When the real solution might be to lower taxes and regulations, or maybe print and lower taxes and regulations.

    In the case of Europe (and much so the US), there are scads of policies that hold back productivity. In this case issuing more gov monopolized money mediums will indeed be inflationary, and inflation is a subsidy for existing wealth (ie existing businesses and thus stock markets). They could keep that current wealth subsidy going for a long time if they did start to print, but it wouldn't be good for the overall economy, but it would be good for their current equities (and probably ours). You would still have lots of unemployment and anemic growth, and the result is a system that gives just enough income to pay your expenses with just a small bit left over. It won't be enough for a 8% to 9% GDP growth and unemployment in the 4% range.

    You can have a strong stock market and high unemployment and a fair/good economy, or you can also have a really strong stock market, low unemployment, and a really great economy.
    May 17, 2012. 11:35 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Initial Jobless Claims: 370K vs. 371K consensus (prior week revised to 372K from 370K). Continuing claims -29K to 3.26M.  [View news story]
    You would be if you claimed or implied you could heal them with your superior medical knowledge. Then if they died, your claims would be proven false.
    May 17, 2012. 10:40 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Will The Greek Drama End? [View article]
    Perhaps what will happen will be the ECB gradually grows more and more accomodative as more and more pressure is brought on Germany to cave. That would then make you think that the Euro will lose value, and slowly inflation grows, keeping Europe in a malaise for a long time like the US.
    May 17, 2012. 10:37 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Initial Jobless Claims: 370K vs. 371K consensus (prior week revised to 372K from 370K). Continuing claims -29K to 3.26M.  [View news story]
    Not very encouraging. It would be much better to see something in the 300k range to give support that bank collateral would show signs of strengthening in the next few months. This number would indicate that malaise will be with us a while longer.
    May 17, 2012. 08:49 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Some Additional Perspective On Europe [View article]
    Isn't it interesting that it requires the individual to question the collective. If the collective truly existed, no individual would ever recognize themselves as an individual.

    What people will find is that the protection of the individual will produce an overall aggregated good that lifts the standards of all.

    The questions that expose tyranny will never be answered because tyrants never come to power promising to hurt the individual. They always come to power promising to be a savior for the collective. Which is again ironic, as the collective is yet again looking to an individual to save them, and what they want is not collective salvation but individual salvation of their own self interest.

    So you will hear the platitudes and empty promises of compassion and safety, but what you will get is people being shot and imprisoned for not getting in line when the compassionate ones tell you to. How safe is that?
    May 16, 2012. 06:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Some Additional Perspective On Europe [View article]
    So if the so called collective decides to collectively go after looterism, should you stand up and oppose that, or should you just go along with it because obedience to the collective comes first?

    If you say, "of course not", then how can others be attacked when they decide to stand up against the idea of a "collective" because they believe the collective is going down the wrong path?

    Doesn't the fact that the individual can challenge the "collective" when the individual believes the "collective" is wrong (as we have seen done here), say more about the value of protecting the individual than the value of protecting the "collective" over the individual?

    And if the individual is supposed to sacrifice for the "collective", then why don't the lesser or nonproductive sacrifice themselves by eliminating themselves from the "collective", so as not to weigh down the performance of the entire group?
    May 16, 2012. 04:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Some Additional Perspective On Europe [View article]
    Did she speak in favor of gov forcing people to accept the terms of the collective bargain in favor of the union, so the union could extract higher compensation of which a portion could be sent back to the politicians that used gov guns to support the position of the union?
    May 16, 2012. 03:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why 'New York Times' Economist Paul Krugman Is Partly Right But Mostly Wrong [View article]
    Well now, that is indeed a conversation for another thread, but isn't it interest that the lessons learned from the material have implications for the more than material.
    May 16, 2012. 02:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why 'New York Times' Economist Paul Krugman Is Partly Right But Mostly Wrong [View article]
    In the end though, all things are about consumption. What good is a pile of food, if it is never eaten by someone, somewhere? Like plentiful resources. What good are they if they are never converted into consumable assets by human labor and intellect.
    May 16, 2012. 01:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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