Seeking Alpha

jhooper

jhooper
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View jhooper's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Spain's provisional GDP data comes in at -0.3% Q/Q and -0.4% Y/Y, better (surprisingly) than the expected -0.4% Q/Q and -0.6% Y/Y.  [View news story]
    You make it sound as if their first devotion was to central gov. Well if they were all for central gov at any cost, then they should have just stayed in the Union. What they really wanted was a central gov as long as it protected their interests (as tyrannical as they were), but once the time came that they determined that that wasn't going to happen (in their minds), they decided to leave (as the Northern states once considered doing in response to the Louisana purchase). Once they decided to leave, they were denied that right.

    Overall, the issue is one of voluntary associations, and govs that decide to force associations will have to result to violence. Lincoln didn't have to fight the Civil War. Once the South decided to leave (regardless of their motivations) he could have just let them leave. Clearly the South wasn't attempting to save central gov at any cost, they were more concerned with looking out for their own interests (as socialist as they were).

    The same is true for Europe. The EU wasn't just for the sake of a union, the same way collectivism is not about the group. It is and always will be about individual interests. If it was about the group then the sick and the weak should self terminate for the benefit of the group, the same way the South should have stayed in the Union regardless of what they might think they would have to give up.

    If people were really collectivists, then Germans would be willing to cut their standard of living in half so that the Greeks and the Spainairds wouldn't have to adjust their standard of living. Of course if the Greeks and the Spainairds were really collectivists, then they wouldn't ask the Germans to sacrifice either. The nonproductive would simply cull themselves.

    Make no mistake. Europe doesn't have the logic to solve the problems they have, just as your comments above didn't have the logic it needed to make the case the South believed in central gov at any cost.

    The best way to play this is to recognize reality for what it is, and the name of the game now is wealth transfer to equity markets from the general populace. This is not about growth from real increases in productive knowledge (though some of that will always be in around). The play will probably be equities (but you will have to get more and more selective) with retreats that provide buying opportunities bonds at higher yields for short periods. Then sell the bonds at gains, move to cash, and get ready to move back into equities before the latest round of CB action ramps them back up.

    If you live in illogical fantasy land, you will continue to lose money.
    Apr 30, 2012. 12:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Growth Pact And Infrastructure: Hollande Co-Opting The Inevitable [View article]
    If such a thing occured, you would need to figure out how to play the investment bubble. You would really want to be one of the politically favored construction companies that would get most of the contracts, and have the wealth transferre your way. This would also boost equities during the period of spending and make earnings look much better, but since the infrastructure will be built in the wrong places and cost way more than they should, the would soon prove to be a drain on other productivity and then hurt earnings. The trick with this would be to time the bubble. Have the wealth transferred your way via this timing, and then get out before the bubble bursts.
    Apr 30, 2012. 12:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Spain's provisional GDP data comes in at -0.3% Q/Q and -0.4% Y/Y, better (surprisingly) than the expected -0.4% Q/Q and -0.6% Y/Y.  [View news story]
    "st time we tried that experiment it led to the Civil War."

    No that was the desire to have a central gov have more power. The North could have just let the South go. Eventually slavery (100% income taxes and 100% regulations) would have made them so poor compared to the North (massive emmigration just like Mexico but with a similar language and cultural elements), the South and slavery would have collapsed, and then they would be begging to be let back in.

    The Union would have been saved (and Lincoln's life) and other countless lives. Ironically, the test of slavery is if you are free to leave. When the South wanted to leave to preserve their ability to prevent their slaves from leaving, the North would not let the South leave. The North did to the South exactly what the South was doing to the slaves.
    Apr 30, 2012. 12:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Initial Jobless Claims: 388K vs . 375K consensus (prior week revised to 389K from 386K). Continuing claims +3K to 3.31M.  [View news story]
    "not even a really smart benevolent despot"

    That despot would need to be omniscient, instead of "really smart". Only when an individual has perfect knowledge about production, can that individual not be a threat. After all, if you have perfect knowledge about production, the society that you control would have nothing you don't already have. Anybody else will always have incentive to think of their survival over those they are supposedly to "take care of".

    Look at the Fed. Supposedly by putting the experts in charge of the economy, all our problems were supposed to go away. But even these experts are constantly at each other's throat over their mistakes.

    Gov can only regulate the things with which it has to the tools to regulate. Gov has been given a grant of force by the populace, thus gov can regulate with regards to force and fraud. The only way a gov could regulate a market is if it could be given some special grant of superior market knowledge.

    Now think about that. If people in the gov knew more about the markets than everyone esle in the market, think about how much that information would be worth. It would be worth far more than BBs $189k a year salary. It would be worth trillions. Since you don't see a massive flow of gov employess moving to the markets to make trillions, the only conclusion is that they don't have special market knowledge. As such, they can't regulate pricing issues since they are blind to prices.

    Expect more malaise.
    Apr 30, 2012. 12:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Spain's provisional GDP data comes in at -0.3% Q/Q and -0.4% Y/Y, better (surprisingly) than the expected -0.4% Q/Q and -0.6% Y/Y.  [View news story]
    The right to be provided with anything can only occur if the right is assumed to make your neighbor a slave. That's not altruism. Its tyranny.
    Apr 30, 2012. 11:13 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Spain's provisional GDP data comes in at -0.3% Q/Q and -0.4% Y/Y, better (surprisingly) than the expected -0.4% Q/Q and -0.6% Y/Y.  [View news story]
    Europe hasn't been educated with the principles of enlightenment. They will never get it right. You could get everyone in Europe to do exactly what you think should be done (more taxes and more price blind gov regulation), and they would still be in this mess. Gov has access to guns. Gov policies don't learn. The guns allow them to make the same price blind mistakes for years and years. Gov can't manage and regulate an economy for the same reasons it can't manage and regulate a religion. Its guns make it blind to prices (signals) about what creates more production and what does not.

    For the next few years, we should be able to count on capital flights from Europe to the US (assuming we don't implement their failed policies of taxes and price blind gov regulations faster than they do).

    So we should be good for scares and then CB action. The scares should produce equity retreats and flights to safety (low treas yields), followed by a CB action that will create a wealth transfer from the general populace to the financial markets that will allow equities to recover and cause treas yields to increase. If you can time the dips, you can have quite a bit of wealth transferred your way.

    If they do implement higher taxes and more price blind gov regulations, these cycles will only be heightened.
    Apr 30, 2012. 11:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Spain's provisional GDP data comes in at -0.3% Q/Q and -0.4% Y/Y, better (surprisingly) than the expected -0.4% Q/Q and -0.6% Y/Y.  [View news story]
    Low taxes and and a lack of price blind gov regulations led to the US being the largest economy in the world, and there are smaller examples of such examples, like the Netherlands after they achieved freedom from Spain.

    http://bit.ly/Ie2QVX


    The point is you guys promised all the problems would go away if we just let the experts run our lives, and you guys have failed to deliver. Success doesn't need to make excuses, and excuses will never deliver success.
    Apr 30, 2012. 09:43 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Market At Equilibrium [View article]
    Don't you think though, that another Greece like scare could cause an equities retreat? Then, people go to cash/safety, and then either the ECB, Fed, or both ramp up accomodation. Then you get recovering equities, and if you sold, took gains, and then bought back at the bottom, the result would be you participated in the wealth transfer CBs offer.

    The trick will be what signals will be needed to initiate the action. When to sell before such a pull back. It would seem to be some sort of confluence of economic news from both the US and Europe, like GDP.
    Apr 30, 2012. 09:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Spain's provisional GDP data comes in at -0.3% Q/Q and -0.4% Y/Y, better (surprisingly) than the expected -0.4% Q/Q and -0.6% Y/Y.  [View news story]
    What you are saying is that you can't count on your regulations being there when you need them. Again, more excuses.

    The evidence that you need to prove your position, is a country somewhere where GDP is twice that of the US, with taxes twice that of the US, regulations twice that of the US, and where nothing ever goes wrong.

    Deductive reasoning is tough enough without confusing it with specious reasoning.
    Apr 30, 2012. 09:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 22 Signs That The Collapsing Spanish Economy Is Heading Into A Great Depression [View article]
    The trick for the leaders will be...

    "Just think how much worse things WOULD have been, had we not been in charge. You should be grateful."
    Apr 30, 2012. 08:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Spain's provisional GDP data comes in at -0.3% Q/Q and -0.4% Y/Y, better (surprisingly) than the expected -0.4% Q/Q and -0.6% Y/Y.  [View news story]
    Yes. Let the parade of excuses begin. Over and over we are told to be like Europe where the experts run everything, and we are told to let the experts run everything, that way the private sector idiots won't be allowed to cause problems. Then when the experts can't deliver and make an even bigger mess, instead of admittng the obvious we are treated to the parade of excuses.

    Some day, some how, all we need is just one more tax or just one more regulation, and then at last, all will be perfect. Just be patient. With a little luck, it may only take 1,000 yrs.
    Apr 30, 2012. 08:16 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Friday's Must-Know News [View article]
    Marxism, like socialism, is looter ism. They can't exist because nothing would ever be produced, and then you would have no people. You should leave the darkness and embrace the principle of enlightenment.
    Apr 29, 2012. 10:04 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Friday's Must-Know News [View article]
    You have very austere expectations of gov care. Typically of tyranny. We should be thankful for our crust of bread and cup of water.
    Apr 29, 2012. 10:00 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Friday's Must-Know News [View article]
    Then I know I am on the right track.
    Apr 29, 2012. 09:58 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Friday's Must-Know News [View article]
    It's the answer that is meaningless. That's why you are too afraid to answer. It would expose the fraud.
    Apr 29, 2012. 09:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
6,139 Comments
6,246 Likes