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  • (96)-Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #96  [View instapost]
    "The fee, which drew swift objections from oil industry groups, is part of a broader administration plan to shift the nation away from transportation systems reliant on internal combustion engines and fossil fuels."

    http://bloom.bg/1L1jBVS

    Funny, gov builds roads, roads are a subsidy for cars, we wind up with lots and lots of cars, then gov wants to tax oil to reduce the number of cars. Finally, gov says we need infrastructure spending on roads and bridges, which will provide room for more cars, then increased car sales are hailed as a sign of a booming economy, which then an oil tax is aimed at getting rid of car sales.

    Thank goodness the experts are in charge.
    Feb 4, 2016. 04:44 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jobless Claims at 285K, misses consensus  [View news story]
    Its just evidence that the Fed is not run by "experts". They are basically ideologues who only proclaim their ideology to be expertise. Although, I guess you can say they are experts in the ideology, like Bossuet, but just because they are experts in their ideology, does not mean their ideology is correct. In fact, if you ignore all the charts, data, and theory proclamations, and look at the basic premise under which they operate, and see if it actually fits with the laws of nature, what we find echos Sir Thomas More.

    'Some men think the Earth is round and others think the Earth it flat; it is a matter capable of question. But if it is flat, will the King's command make it round? And if it is round, will the King's command flatten it? No, I will not sign.'
    Feb 4, 2016. 04:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat 287   [View instapost]
    Looks like they are working on giving themselves an out. Of course, what will they do, if unemployment data is decent through Fed and March?

    http://bloom.bg/1PWS9jy

    NFP has been tracking fairly close with ADP lately, so Friday may be enough of a relief to create a collective sigh of relief that we pop over 1950 on the S&P.
    Feb 4, 2016. 12:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • (96)-Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #96  [View instapost]
    Trying to give themselves an out? Let's see what NFP brings on Friday. ADP and NFP have been tracking a little closer lately, so we good see an emotional sigh of relief that pushes the S&P over 1950.

    http://bloom.bg/1PWS9jy
    Feb 4, 2016. 12:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Will The No Taper Surprise Affect Stocks?  [View article]
    "increasing wages, but that has it's own set of problems, namely, inflation (et al)."

    That's actually a myth. The Fed has actually written this is a myth, yet the top Fed people still believe it.
    Feb 4, 2016. 12:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • (96)-Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #96  [View instapost]
    "Jobless claims climbed by 8,000 to 285,000 in the week ended Jan. 30"

    This is a fair comment.

    "While the uptick in claims bears watching, it may also represents the week-to-week volatility common to claims data around holidays, economists said"

    http://bloom.bg/1PWuTC4

    Also, we are still under 300k. Not a big help for the Fed, but also not a roadblock either.
    Feb 4, 2016. 10:09 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jobless Claims at 285K, misses consensus  [View news story]
    Even with an 8k jump, under 300k still provides cover for Fed to keep raising rates.
    Feb 4, 2016. 09:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why So Negative?  [View article]
    If a CB really wanted to stimulate, instead of buying assets off of banks, they could receive a download from the IRS of all tax returns where people paid taxes, and then deposit that exact amount into the DDAs of all these people at their respective banks. The CB could continue to do this until GDP was 4% or 5%.
    Feb 4, 2016. 09:38 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Will The No Taper Surprise Affect Stocks?  [View article]
    "loverly"

    Before this is over, we could all be saying, "all I want is a room somewhere."
    Feb 4, 2016. 08:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Economy added 205K jobs in January  [View news story]
    Now all we need is more employees and employers.

    http://1.usa.gov/pSpjQo

    Perhaps if we had the economic opportunities that were available in prior years, we would.

    http://1.usa.gov/1Ok4JYo
    Feb 4, 2016. 06:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat 287   [View instapost]
    "Employment, however, is a lagging indicator and as such only the most hardened hawk would advocate another round of tightening in the face of job growth that is unambiguously slowing coupled with retreating inflation pressures as well"

    This seems logical, but what if the Fed feels backing off will be an admission that December was a mistake, and that by admitting that they are now saying, "Things are way worse than we said", and that would bring about the big drop they are fearing. So to avoid that, they keep saying the data is showing their models to be accurate, so they keep raising, thus exacerbating the very thing they are trying to avoid, which then has them raise again in June as well.

    http://bit.ly/1QGCHFe

    1.82 on the 10 yr is the next resistance level.
    Feb 3, 2016. 03:52 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Economy added 205K jobs in January  [View news story]
    Who says they are not coordinating with the Fed.
    Feb 3, 2016. 02:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat 287   [View instapost]
    "ADP private-sector report suggests solid jobs growth despite market turmoil"

    Interesting take on this.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    How about this. Employment data gives Fed cover to hike again in March. Then we get a repeat of Jan 16 in Apr 16, then on top of that, in May, employment data falls apart.

    Maybe that's when the Fed backs off.
    Feb 3, 2016. 12:32 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • (96)-Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #96  [View instapost]
    And given the discussion of the lagging nature of employment, we now have this.

    "The ISM non-manufacturing index fell more than expected, dropping from an upwardly revised 55.8 in December to 53.5 in January. While this is the third month of decline and the lowest level since December 2013, the index remains above the contraction reading of 50. The service sector continues to expand, albeit at a slower pace. "

    "Today’s ISM hit harder than Monday’s because services were to be this year’s bright spot while manufacturing deals with a higher dollar and global growth issues."

    OK, so here's what may happen. The lag pushes us out past the Fed decision in March. So the Fed hikes again in March, we get a repeat of Jan 16 in Apr 16 (1800s on the S&P and 1.70s on the 10 yr), but the Fed keeps using "transitory" because the employment data doesn't start to show real weakness until May this year.

    Then the real fun starts.
    Feb 3, 2016. 11:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • (96)-Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #96  [View instapost]
    Well now, this is interesting. Speaking of employment data as lagging, this guy discusses this topic.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    I like to follow all sorts of people. I would say I disagree with this guy on lots of things. He often tends to call recessions and downturns because his analysis indicates the gov isn't doing enough, but never-the-less, following people that come at things from different angles has proved useful for my analysis. Maybe that's the case for JE this time.
    Feb 3, 2016. 11:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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