jhooper

jhooper
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  • (97)-Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #97  [View instapost]
    We might have to move to Denmark before all of this is over.

    http://bit.ly/1osfcGM
    Feb 10, 2016. 12:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Rebound Will Fuel A 'Rip Your Face Off' Rally In The Stock Market  [View article]
    "until you cannot pay your creditors"

    And when they won't take what you can print, then you cannot pay them.
    Feb 10, 2016. 12:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • (97)-Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #97  [View instapost]
    Hang-on, this just in. Everything is just fine. Rate hikes are a go.

    “Since my appearance before this Committee last July, the economy has made further progress toward the Federal Reserve’s objective of maximum employment. And while inflation is expected to remain low in the near term, in part because of the further declines in energy prices, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) expects that inflation will rise to its 2% objective over the medium term.”
    Feb 10, 2016. 10:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • (97)-Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #97  [View instapost]
    Boy the fear mongers are out today. Don't they know things are so good that we are going to new highs?

    "she is sticking close to the January FOMC statement on the economic outlook with an added caveat about financial conditions tightening,"

    http://bit.ly/1Q7iwx4
    Feb 10, 2016. 10:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • (97)-Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #97  [View instapost]
    "If the Saudis could convince their OPEC pals to reduce the # of barrels being produced, the cost per barrel would rise tomorrow."

    Which wouldn't be a reason for the markets to go up and stay up. Earnings from oil companies might cause an increase, initially, but as people start to pay more for energy, they will pay less for other things. Then earnings for those other things will go down, and then the market would retreat again.
    Feb 9, 2016. 08:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • (97)-Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #97  [View instapost]
    "go back to the 1550 breakout level.. "

    And the frustrating thing I see this time, is that there really isn't anything that will have it bounce back to the May 15 high.

    I would have to see some large, macro policies changes for the positive to have me thinking about entry points. The QEs were far easier to time, but this scenario just has too many variables based on decisions from fickle politicians and regulators.
    Feb 9, 2016. 06:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • (97)-Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #97  [View instapost]
    "The Fed can no longer exert the same influence on markets due to the credit overhang."

    I was more thinking of the emotional high that could produce a rally for a few weeks if the Fed capitulated. In fact, it might last as long as June.

    I was thinking the occasional tip over 1900 and even 1950, but then back down into the 1800s. Again, emotion driven.
    Feb 9, 2016. 06:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • (97)-Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #97  [View instapost]
    """""and before anyone decides to accuse me of "hoping' , away the issues"""""

    Easy hoss. I was just spring boarding off your comment because it got me to thinking, and I used my comment to think out loud about what sorts of reasons would lead to oil bouncing back and what sort of effects and affects would be involved in that.

    Perhaps you've already discussed this somewhere, maybe not, anyway, its irrelevant. I just wanted to work through if I could see the scenarios in which oil would make the difference you noted.
    Feb 9, 2016. 06:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • (97)-Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #97  [View instapost]
    Interesting attempt to quantify how low the market will go.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Perhaps someday there will be a model that can quantify all this better, but the difficulty will always be factoring in the affects of risk-on or risk-off from gov action. In a natural free market, there would be no cycles. Only growth, so it wouldn't really make sense to measure the ups and downs.

    The important thing is to just consider the big, macro factors to determine the general direction. I would say the needle is now just pointing to risk-off. Fed capitulation in March could move it slightly to risk-on. We will see if they will make a tantamount admission that Dec was a mistake.
    Feb 9, 2016. 04:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • (97)-Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #97  [View instapost]
    10 yr is sitting at 1.73. The lowest yield in the last 2 yrs was 1.68 in Jan 2015.
    Feb 9, 2016. 04:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • (97)-Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #97  [View instapost]
    "reverse the trend in oil "

    Of course, what will reverse that trend. We can also say a magical fairy will come down and cure all disease, and thus, the less people have to spend on medical needs, the more they will have for value added things. Of course, what will make the magical fairy come down.

    For oil to go up, you will need a massive reduction in supply. Of course, for that to happen, that means something has happened to supply or production. That means there is a problem. That will translate into higher prices for the same productivity and thus a lower standard of living. In other words it would have the same effect as a tax or the Fed shrinking its balance sheet. So, for this scenario, we would want to look at a "peak oil" scenario. Of course, what we have shown is the technology is available to bring new oil online. So, that will tend to be a balancing force.

    Now, another option, would be the demand for oil suddenly shoots up faster than what the demand is now. That would be indicative that something has changed in the economic environment that has made new economic opportunities available. That generally requires some new advance in technology or a reversal of fiscal policies that are holding economies back (ie China becomes the Netherlands of the late 1500s).

    Trends just don't change. They change for reasons. By examining what those reasons are, you can examine the environment and see if any of those reasons are evident. If not, then there is no reason to assume a trend will change.

    Logically, it would make sense that lower energy costs would act as a tax decrease. People would spend or invest the savings on things that make their lives better, whereas before the higher costs of energy meant they were spending more for the same living standard. The savings in costs should improve their living standards, but it seems what people are doing is simply using the savings to pay down debt. In other words, simply pay now for what increases in their past standard of living they borrowed from the future (the current present).

    http://bit.ly/1MNKNb9

    There really doesn't seem to be a reason for the trend in oil to drastically change. Even if we assume people are done paying off debt, then if energy does go up, then their switch from deleveraging to consuming will be hamstrung, and they will have to revert right back to being taxed via energy.

    All this seems to fit with this long "U" that seems to be developing with the real question as to how long it will take for the right part of the U to form.
    Feb 9, 2016. 04:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Further To Fall Before The Market Is Cheap?  [View article]
    If the Fed stops talking about rate hikes and starts talking QE4, that would be a good signal. However, Fed power is going to be muted because fiscal policy is finally catching up with us. Increased regulations and taxes since 2009 is producing enough risk-off now that Fed risk-on will be challenged.
    Feb 9, 2016. 03:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • (97)-Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #97  [View instapost]
    Oh yeah, NIM for banks is about 3.09. Q115 was the lowest at 3.03. In 2015 NIM did trend up, but overall it has been trending down since Q1 of 2010 when it was 3.84. 2015 NIM is lower than 2008 NIM. Weaker earnings mean its harder to increase capital.
    Feb 9, 2016. 03:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • (97)-Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #97  [View instapost]
    "I was just wondering if anyone does have info that suggests the banks are not well capitalized and in better shape now. "

    Well they are certainly better than Q408 when Tier 1 was about 7.45. At this point Q315 is a peak at 9.61. Q415 dropped slightly to 9.59.

    A couple of things of note. NPLs have dropped from 261 billion in Q113 to 137.8 billion in Q415, but what is interesting is the drop has been 4 to 5 billion each quarter. From Q3 to Q4 in 15 it was only about a billion drop. That's interesting because 30-89 ticked up in the same period about 3 billion and charge-offs by about 2 billion. 30-89 has been growing during 2015. 30-89 is typically where trouble first appears.

    Granted, these increases are small, and its tough to tell if there really is a trend showing, but it would make me feel better if they were all improving.
    Feb 9, 2016. 02:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat 287   [View instapost]
    In Jan of 2015 the 10 yr hit 1.68, which was the lowest yield in the last 2 yrs.

    I saw 1.71 today.
    Feb 9, 2016. 02:15 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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