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  • Are They Bad? Bullish? Let's Talk Negative Interest Rates - Bezek's Daily Briefing  [View article]
    ECB June 2014 - first negative rate.

    German 10 yr

    http://bit.ly/1nZQ227

    BOJ Jan 2016 - first negative rate

    Japan 10 yr

    http://bit.ly/1TDr3vX

    Scooping water from one end of the bath tub and depositing it in the other end of the bath tub, will not mean you will increase the depth of the water in the bath tub.
    Feb 1, 2016. 04:19 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are They Bad? Bullish? Let's Talk Negative Interest Rates - Bezek's Daily Briefing  [View article]
    "... and the (allegedly) strengthening US economy. The rest of the world, largely, sees collapsing exports, tattered currencies, and credit markets freezing over. ... while the rest of the world faces ever-weakening economic conditions.


    Combine with the horrendous 0.7% US GDP growth for the fourth quarter, and you have a Fed that simply can't hike now... the US economy is suddenly and rapidly slowing, ... The case for hiking rates - as flimsy as it was - is totally gone now.

    ... the particularly weak GDP number almost compel the Fed to stand down.

    As the bears are prone to do, they're now saying that absent central bank manipulation, they would have been right."

    Wait, are the bears right about bad economic data, or are you right about the bad economic data and the bears are wrong because stocks are going to up because of all the good news?
    Feb 1, 2016. 04:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 Update: Bulls And Bears Focus On Crude Oil And The Fed. Both Have Taken Their Eye Off Of What Really Matters - Earnings  [View article]
    ISM still shows contraction (fourth consecutive month & Nov revised down a bit)) though there was a rebound in new orders and production.

    New orders: 51.5; up from 48.8 in Dec.
    Production: 50.2; up from 49.9 in Dec.
    Employment: 45.9; down from 48.0 in Dec.
    Prices Paid: 33.5; same as Dec.

    "Manufacturing payrolls have only contracted in two months since August 2013; a 45.9 ISM employment reading may put that stability in jeopardy."

    This is not the type of thing that adds to the hopes for new highs for the S&P. It just adds to the notion that we may be looking at this range for several years.
    Feb 1, 2016. 01:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are They Bad? Bullish? Let's Talk Negative Interest Rates - Bezek's Daily Briefing  [View article]
    Or they could say, "we definitely might or we definitely might not."
    Feb 1, 2016. 11:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 Update: Bulls And Bears Focus On Crude Oil And The Fed. Both Have Taken Their Eye Off Of What Really Matters - Earnings  [View article]
    Part of the reason the Fed could keep hiking. Our understanding of what they think data dependent is probably very different from what they think data dependent means.

    "Put in polite terms, this suggests the Fed should stop
    explaining away long-running market conditions because they don’t fit within the theory FOMC members learned on their way to a seat on the committee."

    http://bit.ly/1nZ2HSL
    Feb 1, 2016. 10:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 Update: Bulls And Bears Focus On Crude Oil And The Fed. Both Have Taken Their Eye Off Of What Really Matters - Earnings  [View article]
    "Fed Vice Chairman Fischer will be speaking at the Council for Foreign Relations in NY this afternoon. Last time he spoke, it was to defend the necessity of rate hikes. Let’s see if he sounds any less hawkish today."

    Their problem is that even though they have been claiming "data dependent", they have also been claiming the good data requires rate hikes. So, if they back off on rate hikes because of the data, then that means they no longer see the data as good. That signal could be a reason for people no longer to be optimistic and the data gets even worse.

    As I said, bad news is bad news and good news will be bad news.
    Feb 1, 2016. 09:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 Update: Bulls And Bears Focus On Crude Oil And The Fed. Both Have Taken Their Eye Off Of What Really Matters - Earnings  [View article]
    Grinding lower is a trend that should draw attention, and its in line with the PCE deflator falling 0.1%. So, in theory, this would lend to the Fed not raising rates, but now its also a trend that indicates "new highs" are also less likely.

    "Consumer spending was flat in December, with November revised up 0.2 tenths to 0.5%. October was unrevised and, like December, flat. The saving rate rose from 5.3% to 5.5%. It was 5.0% in June. November was the only month since May in which spending grew faster than income.

    Fed officials have lauded the strength of consumption for months, but it has been grinding lower since July. So, what are consumers saving for? We can think of three things:
    1. Rents, which are rising much faster than income, especially on the West coast.
    2. Medical care. Obamacare was designed to encourage employers to shift healthcare costs onto households.
    3. Student debt. We economists call any money not spent in the current period “savings.” That includes money used to pay down debt. "
    Feb 1, 2016. 09:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 Update: Bulls And Bears Focus On Crude Oil And The Fed. Both Have Taken Their Eye Off Of What Really Matters - Earnings  [View article]
    "NOT a recession or BEAR MARKET "

    We could probably also add "no new highs" as well.
    Jan 31, 2016. 06:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • (96)-Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #96  [View instapost]
    "the market will pass the 2000 level in the long-run, some 5+years down the road"

    I am not to sure of that, if by pass you mean 2300 or 2400 on its way to 2500 or 2600 in 5+ years. We actually have a set of circumstances shaping up that could allow us to go to 2050, 2075, or even 2100, but then back down to 1800 or 1700, with 2100 being the high for the next 5+ years.
    Jan 31, 2016. 05:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 Update: Bulls And Bears Focus On Crude Oil And The Fed. Both Have Taken Their Eye Off Of What Really Matters - Earnings  [View article]
    Do we now have the opposite of the Bernanke Put via the Yellen Call?
    Jan 31, 2016. 04:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 Update: Bulls And Bears Focus On Crude Oil And The Fed. Both Have Taken Their Eye Off Of What Really Matters - Earnings  [View article]
    I have to admit, the basic logic is sound. As CB credit expansion pumps up the price of real estate, it actually starts to make sense to build up and not out.
    Jan 31, 2016. 04:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yes, You Can Find 'Alpha' In Fixed Income - In Safe, 100% Insured CDs  [View article]
    Also, an annuity is just a promise to pay, so you have to underwrite the "promiser" as well. If they go "poof", so does your annuity.
    Jan 31, 2016. 03:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 Update: Bulls And Bears Focus On Crude Oil And The Fed. Both Have Taken Their Eye Off Of What Really Matters - Earnings  [View article]
    "while the Saudis continue their madness "

    Speaking of Saudi Arabia.

    http://tinyurl.com/j3r...

    Which is interesting in light of this.

    http://tinyurl.com/hyz...
    Jan 31, 2016. 03:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 Update: Bulls And Bears Focus On Crude Oil And The Fed. Both Have Taken Their Eye Off Of What Really Matters - Earnings  [View article]
    "believes it's only institutional mistake in its history was the premature tightening in 1937 "

    Here's the problem in the current environment.

    Premature would indicate that pessimistic talk is right. So, if the Fed doesn't raise rates, that's a signal that the bears are right, and everyone better bail. So, they do, and we get S&P 1600.

    If the preponderance of the data shows we should be optimistic and that the S&P is going to new heights in 2016, then the Fed would not be "premature" and they should keep raising rates (which they have said they would like to do between 3 to 5 times in 2016 in addition to saying its data dependent). So they do, and they flatten the yield curve even more, which will give us S&P 1800 with swings between 1750 and 1900.

    We are now in an era of good news is bad news and bad news is bad news.
    Jan 31, 2016. 02:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: A Dovish Tilt From The Fed?  [View article]
    Just curious. I've seen this before, and it strikes me as people using a phone or tablet to do their writing. I've tried that before, and it wasn't very satisfying.
    Jan 31, 2016. 01:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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