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  • Chekhov's Gun [View article]
    Bit of an uptick in auto loan defaults.
    Feb 24, 2015. 02:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Tale Of Two Debts: Japan Vs. Greece [View article]
    Regulators don't protect consumers. Regulators protect the larger interests of any industry. The consumer pitch is to sucker consumers into believing they are being protected by safe this or better that.

    Now, think about that. The implication from that, is that gov regulators are necessary to make businesses provide consumers the products they want at the prices they want. The implication from such an assertion is that no business would provide consumers the products at the prices consumers wanted.

    That means there are gov regulators with the market and price knowledge about what consumers really want that no business currently in the market would provide.

    Now, think about that.

    That means there are some humans in gov that have knowledge that would give them a 100% market share. Such knowledge would make these gov regulators billionaires or trillionaires. However, instead of using this superior market knowledge to make themselves unbelievably wealthy, they instead, work for a gov wage (which is worth a few million to be sure, but certainly not billions or trillions).

    So, what we are supposed to believe is that these regulators are just giving away this extremely valuable information, instead of leaving their gov jobs and starting the business that EVERYONE wants, but yet no current market player will provide.

    There is a rule of thumb in investing, if something sounds too good to be true, then it probably is. A gov employee with market knowledge of what everyone consumer wants, and who is willing to just give it away, is not only too good to be true, but down right ludicrious. Only a dogmatic ideologue could believe such things. This is an investing website. You can't invest based on ideology. If you do, you deserve to have your wealth transferred away from you.
    Feb 24, 2015. 02:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Tale Of Two Debts: Japan Vs. Greece [View article]
    "What the article shows is soms small banks complaining on the level of regulation."

    Like I said, you claimed "whatsoever". Now you are admitting there is some evidence, but you just want to dismiss it because it doesn't conform to your particular confirmation bias.
    Feb 24, 2015. 02:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Things I'm Watching [View article]
    Yellen appears to have given herself some room. So, what do we think. Is the rate hike just jawboning, or do we think she is still committed?
    Feb 24, 2015. 01:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Tale Of Two Debts: Japan Vs. Greece [View article]
    Clearly this is all just a coincidence.

    The green states would do well to have lobbyists in the red states promoting this...

    report released by Demos last month

    The green states should also have lobbyists promoting every tax increase that comes across the board for the red states, a $75/hr minimum wage, a doubling of all red state regulations, a doubling of all state employee wage and benefit packages, and a total ban and confiscation of all firearms.

    The green states should also have a compassion relocation program, where all residents on state assistance are relocated to red states with even better state assistance programs.

    After all, regulations have not costs, as they are offset by benefits. This would have the red states prosper on par with Greece, thus showing the rest of the world how its done.
    Feb 24, 2015. 01:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Tale Of Two Debts: Japan Vs. Greece [View article]
    "as I show in a report released by Demos "

    You need to take anything Demos says with a grain of salt.

    "Studies trotted out by business organizations purporting to show that regulation is costly to society and negatively impacts jobs do so only by excluding from their calculations the economic benefits that accrue to society"

    This is an example of the post scarcity argument. Its a god complex. It basically says gov regulators cannot make mistakes. If this were true, then all countries would be perfectly competitive. In which case, Greece shouldn't be having any problems.

    These types of agruments are facile and specious.
    Feb 24, 2015. 01:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Tale Of Two Debts: Japan Vs. Greece [View article]
    "I tend to take what's coming out of bank lobbies with some degree of salt"

    This is a great example of the total denial, followed by an admission that the denial wasn't true and then a rationalization for what at first was denied to exist should exist but you can't blame the regulators.

    Its a classic pattern for ideologues.
    Feb 24, 2015. 01:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Tale Of Two Debts: Japan Vs. Greece [View article]
    "There is no proof of this whatsoever."

    Feb 24, 2015. 12:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stability Of The European Union (23) January 1, 2015. [View instapost]
    “We are encouraged by the commitment to combat tax evasion and corruption.”

    I like the way the Greeks have to negotiate in order to be prompted to crack down on corruption. It seems like that is the sort of thing you should be doing anyways.
    Feb 24, 2015. 08:49 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Recent Spike In Rates - What Does It Mean For Stocks And Bonds? [View article]
    "meant by tying flies"

    Hence, "salmo trutta".
    Feb 23, 2015. 03:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks Will Roar Once Greece Is Cured [View article]
    Yeah, it sounds more like another "can kick". Maybe Markos has seen something I haven't. To me, this just means a risk-on scenario for four months, until we are back here again. Also, don't forget, we will get some ECB QE during those months, so the risk-on could be enhanced. We may get to 2150 on the S&P (maybe higher) and maybe hit the 2.50 on the 10 yr I've been expecting. Then we see another fear trade in four months, with another "can kick".
    Feb 20, 2015. 04:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stability Of The European Union (23) January 1, 2015. [View instapost]
    4 month can kick for Greece.
    Feb 20, 2015. 03:49 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks Will Roar Once Greece Is Cured [View article]
    "Greece has just been cured "

    I just saw its a fourth month extension. Is this what you were referencing when you say "cured"?
    Feb 20, 2015. 03:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Answer Is No [View article]
    They would stop defending the balance sheet size, and just let it shrink. Also, they would end forward guidance (telling us what their plans are).
    Feb 19, 2015. 11:35 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Things I'm Watching [View article]
    More on possible Fed intentions.

    They may not head in the direction of pulling the carpet out from under asset prices this year like they did starting in 2004 and running up to 2007 when they took the DR up to 6.25. That's one of the big things you have to watch out for. Substantial increases in the DR typicall precede a market collapse and a recession.

    The other thing is that "substantial" depends on the environment. In 1929, the DR had to be raised to 6% to cause the crash in Oct of 29. In 2007 the DR had to be raised to 6.25%. From mid 2007, the S&P started to fall apart, and then it bottomed out in Mar 2009. Then, of course, the Fed reversed itself, and reinflated the market.

    The ups and downs in markets, all through history, and especially beginning with the advent of bank notes and gov monopolies thereof (aka John Law), are more attributable to gov interventions (which include central banks). Thus, by learning to watch their activities, you greatly improve your chances of timing the ups and downs.

    Right now, in the current environment, a 25 bps hike may be "substantial". Maybe not enough to drop us below 1800 on the S&P, but its still a move in the wrong direction. The Fed is basically offsetting the notes the IRS is destroying, and that is leaving notes in the system to keep asset prices bid up. Thus, any move by the Fed to destroy notes in conjunction with the IRS would remove notes that are available to bid up asset prices. As such, asset prices would fall.

    So, in speaking in terms of things to watch, the DR is a critical item to watch. Note how increases in the DR tend to precede recessions.
    Feb 19, 2015. 08:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment