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jhooper

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  • S&P Target 2000 - No Need For A Nice Round Bottom - Part V [View article]
    I can see S&P breaking 1700 in a few weeks. Part of Ocare has been delayed, and that is good for risk-on. As long as QE continues, it will be risk-on, which means equities up and treas rates up.
    Jul 11 01:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Inflation Never Came [View article]
    "but private investment is more concerned with themselves,"

    And gov investment is not? Politicians and their purchasers grow richer and richer, while the people they claim to want to help, grow poorer and poorer. Boy, Galbraith sure dropped the ball when he failed to question the advertising ploy the coercive gov types and their lackeys employ. Oh yeah, gov is the great equalizer indeed when it allows certain people to get richer and richer, and actually starts shooting other people when they try to get some wealth for themselves (income taxes are a barrier to wealth creation - just try not paying your income taxes and see what happens to you - it won't be love and compassion, I can tell you that).

    The history of compulsory gov is a rich ruling class using its monopoly of force to make sure no one else can get rich, and they justify their actions by saying its all for the "public good" (yet again, see Bossuet).

    One way to protect yourself is to realize that an equity index is a measure of this wealth transfer scheme, and you can provide yourself with some protection by investing in the equity inflation that we are seeing. Gov regulation can pop the equity inflation, but the Fed should be able to reinflate it.

    Looking at 9532921's reasoning, you can see the population has fallen for the false advertising of compulsory gov, hook line and sinker, so all you can do is find ways to determine where the wealth is going to be transferred to, and be there when it gets there. Right now, that is the equities market, then you too can be like 9532921 and use the compulsory gov policies to make yourself richer while everyone else gets poorer.

    Remember, you will never see those that advocate for wealth redistribution, redistributing their own wealth. They will do everything they can to keep their wealth, and to take your wealth too.
    Jul 1 05:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stability Of The European Union (19) April 18, 2013 To  [View instapost]
    "derivatives are the financial weapon of mass destruction"

    I view Buffet's comments the same way I do Bill Gross'. They both will talk up things they want you to buy, and talk down things they want to buy from you. Buffet has gotten rich by understanding crony socialism, and you have to view what he says in that light.

    Derivatives are just insurance. The reason we have so much insurance is because the supposed holy and superior gov intervention has created so much asset inflation that risk has gone parabolic and people reacted by attempting to insure that risk.

    If you got rid of the price blind gov intervention, the risk would wane, and so would the need to insure it. Remember free markets have never caused a bubble and a collapse. Only gov intervention has done that, and even though we may have had brief periods of less gov intervention in the past, it was still there, subsidizing steamboats, railroads, wars, banks, and tulips. There has never been a widespread, global free market, and there never will be. Thus you have to recognize that more bubbles will come, more crony socialism will create a rich ruling elite (like Buffet and his politicians), and the best you can do is learn to recognize the signs and use those signs to help protect yourself.
    Jun 29 12:13 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Inflation Never Came [View article]
    "designed to discourage pursuit of the study of the Humanities,"

    Its the classic rationing result of compulsory gov. Had the US continued on a path of liberty and Federalism, what may have eventually evolved would have been noncompulsory gov. Disney World is a hint at the prototype. I could have seen some state in the union experimenting with the Disney model, and then getting the notion that state law would allow for both profit and nonprofit municipalities. That experiment would have led to the discovery of natural laws that drive price discovery for what people want in communities. Over time, people would have abandoned the nonprofit municipalities for places like Disney World (also see Disney's private city), and eventually what would have developed in the US would have been the complete collapse of compulsory gov.

    This was the lesson that was being learned from the earlier experiments in the colonial US. Winthrop's shining city on a hill was going to be a shining example of collectivism. What developed in the Purityrannical (my phrase) model that subsequently set about imprisoning people for exposed elbows and execution of Quakers. The result was emigration, as the release valve was the next valley over. Colonies started to learn that gov regulation of behavior was price blind, and that it needed to do less and less or suffer secessio plebis. What they didn't quite get to, was noncompulsory gov.

    I recognize that my lifetime will never see this, but what I can recognize is the wealth transfer that compulsion creates, and recognize that wealth transfer is measured in an equity index, and the modicum of protection I can afford myself is take advantage of an index that goes up because it measures wealth transfer.

    That's how I have arrived at my predictions that they S&P will go up and interest rates would go up, even though we were told Fed action would make interest rates go down. The people in the Fed are operating from the conventional wisdom they have been taught, and as long as they do so, there is a certain predictability to their actions and a certain predictability to what those actions will affect with respect to the markets and asset prices.
    Jun 29 12:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Inflation Never Came [View article]
    "Assets are exchanging themselves."

    See this is what I am talking about. Just putting words together in a syntax manner does not mean they make sense. Assets only become assets when human labor turns physical matter in the environment into assets. People do this by learning. Learning comes from making mistakes. Learning from mistakes occurs when people must bear the consequences of their actions. When people are able to use coercion on each to force them into compulsory actions, there is no longer any need to bear the consequences of actions. This is why you want free markets. That is markets free of coercion. Such markets operate at peak price sensitivity, and asset creation operates at the peak of the production possibilities frontier.

    Coercion is only used stealing or to defend against stealing. Thus, to have compulsory gov monopolize the money medium, gives people with access to that coercion the ability to steal. That means one group of people will inflate and another deflate. This is the classic rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer.

    So, yes, there is the potential for equities to inflate, but that doesn't mean everyone gets richer. It will only mean those that understand the inflationary power of coercion will (or at least those lucky enough to stumble into it). You will also get other crashes of equities as the Fed/Keynsians/Coercives make mistakes with Fiscal/Monetary policy based on failed economic theories that believe rhetoric replaces reality.

    They believe they must "manage" the economy. So at times they will turn the consumption subsidies on (which is what coercion really is), and when they do, it will be risk-on, assets will inflate and interest rates will tend to go up as they create Fed notes to bid up asset prices. Then they will believe that they must control this inflation, and will turn the consumption subsidies off, by less accommodative Fed policy or higher expropriation taxes. Then it will be risk-off and assets will deflate and interest rates will go down (especially for the US as it has the reserve currency).

    So you have to watch for these policies mistakes to come (and they will) to time your moves. With more and more compulsory gov control, we are heading into a new era of a rich ruling elite made possible by a gov education system that makes sure it doesn't teach people to think critically so they will fall into line to be the ruled class. So yes, I expect equities to run, because they will be the measure of the new, rich ruling elite, while everyone else gets poorer.

    Study Bossuet and contrast that with Cantillon, and that comparison will help you and the others reading this to understand what is coming and how to take advantage of it.
    Jun 28 08:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Inflation Never Came [View article]
    "i based it on logic"

    You based it on specious reasoning that you provided. That's why your arguments are inconsistent. That's why in one breath you say fighting is bad, but in the next, you think it is good, if it is fullfilling the personal preferences that you have.

    Here is another example of the semantics you are employing.

    "I want to increase the money supply"

    No, you want to increase the money medium supply. Money is a debt contract for exchange of assets. The only way to increase the money supply is to increase the supply of assets to be exchanged. You can't "print" assets, so you can't "print" money. You can print money mediums, but its not the same thing. However, you assume they are, thus you think you are using logic, but what you are falling into is specious reasoning.

    Here is another example.

    "I want to tax the rich"

    You never explain what this is. You mean you want to take their Fed Res notes away from them, and send them to the Treasury? And, what do the notes do in the Treasury? You then assume that this "money" is then sent out to "empower the disadvantaged". You don't need to do this. We have a monopolized money medium in the US. You don't need to collect it to spend it.

    This is what I mean by your lack of logic. You are just stringing words together because that is what you have been taught to do. What you have not been taught to do is engage in critical thinking.

    You don't need all these fears you have been taught. Your brain is capable of much more. Let the fears go, and enter in a new world of reason.
    Jun 28 05:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stability Of The European Union (19) April 18, 2013 To  [View instapost]
    "Italy has lost billion on old derivative positions initiated in late 90s a new audit reveals. A “confidential” report by the Rome Treasury is shedding some fresh light on the losses Italy faces on old derivative positions that were initiated in the late 90s and restructured during the financial crisis. The derivate trades in the late 90s provided up front cash injections to Italy, helping the country reduce its budget deficit so it could meet a deficit targets required for inclusion in the Euro. The new report says that Italy restructured €31.7 billion of the trades during the financial crisis, extending out payments. Estimates by news outlets suggest that Italy’s losses could be as high as €8 billion. The news does not appear likely to shake the confidence in Italy, but does help expose the financial shenanigans employed by certain Euro zone country to meet the deficit targets. "
    Jun 28 04:52 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Inflation Never Came [View article]
    "I think the gov't is the great equalizer."

    Just assuming something doesn't make it so. Also, inherent in this is that gov must be compulsory. So if we are just going to accept that gov is compulsory, and that it is the great equalizer, then we shouldn't complain when that compulsory force is being used in war.

    This is how people get themselves into trouble, and wind up jeapordizing their ability to consume by jeapordizing their ability to produce. They simply make assumptions about the world based on specious reasoning without accepting the reality of the world around them. Its like assuming you passed a law repealing gravity, and then stepping off a cliff to enjoy your new found equalization with the laws of physics.
    Jun 28 04:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Inflation Never Came [View article]
    "You can also blame the rich for this."

    Again, the Luddite/Calvinist view rears its ugly head. The view that riches are inherently bad and that an austere, meager life is inherently good is illogical. We determine good and bad by what brings us pleasure, and we use our reason to determine what those things are. What makes us feel good is consuming. Being rich is nothing more than having a lot to consume. So what is the point of life then, if we can't enjoy it. This irrational fear of wealth is not supported by our reason.
    Jun 28 04:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Inflation Never Came [View article]
    "they are uneducated "

    How can that be? The promise of gov schools would be that everyone is educated. You are pointing out that the gov schools didn't deliver.

    "Yes, the gov't should stop spending money on wars. Fighting is stupid and a waste of time and brain power."

    War is the ultimate manifestation of gov regulation. If you violate a gov regulation domestically, your gov will go to war against you. It will fight you. So, I agree with your premise then that coercion is the problem, and rules based on coercion are indeed a waste of brain power.

    The next leap forward for human beings will come when enough people realize that compulsory gov is the only barbarous relic we have left.
    Jun 28 04:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P Target 2000 - No Need For A Nice Round Bottom - Part V [View article]
    "it's about where it should be, a slight premium to inflation expectations"

    Also, keep an eye on Europe. France seems to be on the path to becoming the new Greece, and if the cameras get turned back on in Europe, more capital flight to safety will ensue, and we could see the 10yr move back down below 2%.
    Jun 28 12:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Inflation Never Came [View article]
    "Surely the economy of scale necessary to compete effectively with large oligarchic organizations has been accelerated by low interest rates enabling "

    This is another important angle to all of this. If you see a trend and understand the natural forces at work, then you can logically deduce what is going to happen, and if that deduction helps you determine where the suffering will be, and you know about the suffering, then you can find ways to protect yourself from the suffering.

    What you do is find the entities that will benefit from the barriers to entry, and if those entities are measured in some sort of index, like say an equity index, you can make some decisions about where the high ground is going to be and climb up on it.
    Jun 28 11:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stability Of The European Union (19) April 18, 2013 To  [View instapost]
    I keep remarking about "turning the cameras back on in Europe". It is something I keep an eye on, because I expect continual capital flights from Europe to US treas, thus putting downward pressure on treas yields.

    Its the same thing as labor flight. When Europeans flooded through Ellis Island, keeping wage rates under control, thus making the US the industrial giant it became.

    Capital is just stored labor, and labor is like water, its a force of nature, and it will always seek the path of least resistance. That's why you want your capital and labor markets to be as free from coercion as possible, it makes your economy and people the most prosperous on the planet.
    Jun 28 09:22 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Inflation Never Came [View article]
    "All the good middle class jobs have been replaced by machines and the machines don't buy anything( a replacement screw, once in awhile)."

    The Luddite view just won't die. Jobs haven't been killed by machines. Jobs have been killed by the gov interventionist/Keynesian Coercive view of the world. The interjection of coercion into the markets for theft by the gov, has driven up the fixed costs of production so as to create a barrier for entry for individuals to use the machines to employ themselves and then provide choice with new products via the new machines.

    Machines make labor more productive. What you want is more and more machines, used by more and more individuals. The reason you don't get this is because the fraud of gov regulations with regards to protecting the consumer is really just a ploy to eliminate competition.

    So these big bad businesses you want punished because they use machines instead of people are able to make sure you never get the chance to create a competiting product with your own machine because you have given gov the power to regulate them, which has created the economics for the businesses you planned to control to control you.
    Jun 28 08:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stability Of The European Union (19) April 18, 2013 To  [View instapost]
    Wait, raising taxes and gov spending was suposed to lead to an economic utopia the likes of which the world has never seen.

    http://bit.ly/14ej4fP
    Jun 28 08:16 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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