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  • The Muddy Waters NQ Mobile Report Card [View article]
    No position here but
    Lvl2 cash was sloppy and
    why is nq buying back shares? Seems ludicrous for a small growing company to think that is a better use
    Nov 11 05:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Not Too Late To Sell Refiners Tied To Brent/WTI Oil Spread [View article]
    PBF is another. An east coast refiner, prices in brent, with WTI inputs (brings in a lot of bakken/WTI rail cars). They've been beaten down as well.
    Jul 3 08:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Disney (DIS) could lose $100M on The Lone Ranger if holiday weekend sales are as weak as some estimates, according to Cowen & Co. The expensive film is having a tough time getting out of the gate with early reviews tipping toward the negative side amid tough competition from family movies Despicable Me 2 and Monsters University. (Reviews: The Hollywood Reporter says it "wobbles and thrashes all over the place" - while The New York Post calls it a "bloated, misshapen mess.") [View news story]
    I don't know a single person lining up to go to this movie or even excited about it.(unlike superman and others)

    best case scenario is breakeven. remember prints and advertising is can often be another 50% of the movie price tag (and this doesn't cover any studio fees or any number of other items).

    Glad they delayed this for two years in re-writes and other garbage to still have a stinker.
    Jul 2 01:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AIG Is Still At A 35% Discount To Book Value [View article]
    Wow a 35% discount to book, that must be good. that must be a value compared to all the other reinsurers...oh wait, they're all trading below book. They may trim their discount to book (I think they can trim it to 20%), but until you talk about the factors/headwinds keeping reinsurers trading below their book values, i'm not sure that should be the lead to the pitch.
    Jun 28 12:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Using Life Insurance Products To Fund Long-Term Needs [View article]

    From the life side: typically bonds are the major holding behind whole life, UL (and other investment linked life) and Immediate and Deferred Annuities. Capital requirements on other types of holdings make it too costly to not be holding mostly bonds against these.

    Term has very little reserving and thus very small invested assets relative to face and other products. so while these are also mostly bonds its mostly just underwriting/mortality risk. (we have seen some increased pricing due to low rates though)

    VA and Seperate accounts can be all over the place with holdings. some are pass through equities and some are bonds with options to cover the equity moves. depends highly on product.
    May 3 12:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: PBF Energy Misses, But Continues To Increase Bakken And Canadian Feedstocks [View article]
    Thanks for an update, Michael.

    I have personally played PBF as a synthentic to the Brent/WTI or Brent/WCS spread which has been very much shrunk in the last couple months.
    May 3 10:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Using Life Insurance Products To Fund Long-Term Needs [View article]
    Nice piece David. I very much agree that Term (or another product that works like synthetic term) is great for covering mortality risk.

    SPIAs are often very useful to help hedge against longevity risk (outliving ones money)

    But I very much agree that low investment returns means tougher pricing, less guarantees and just a tough overall life environment. We've been seeing this for the last 18 months and won't change in the near future
    Apr 30 03:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Gas Really Gets Priced [View article]
    Too many people try to show the disconnect between WTI/NYMEX and Gas Prices instead of Brent (which is the key on the east coast at least).

    What Oil price did you use in the article?
    Mar 15 02:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stuck Between A Rock And A Hard Place? Not With DGT Holdings [View article]
    Waiting for it to clear now. Will be about 12.5% annualized. Thanks.
    Mar 6 09:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dumbest Portfolio For The Smartest People [View article]
    Time Traveller, the problem is due to the cost of playing (the rake/vig) and making dumb bets, most people cannot generate alpha and make dumb/rash decisions.

    Here's a nice article from rick ferri:

    sure some active funds beat the index, but many more lose. Also previous and future outperformers are totally uncorrelated (except maybe in bonds)
    Mar 1 11:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Capital: Less Pre-Payments, More Profit Potential, More Secure Dividends [View article]
    NUNAY, thanks for posing this question. I've not looking into NLY in a few years but thought they had huge capital sensitivity to interest rates due to the leverage.

    to OP: does increasing borrowing rates crush this business?
    Feb 28 01:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dumbest Portfolio For The Smartest People [View article]
    This very much follows the teachings of Jack Bogle.

    There is good reading at and the bogleheads books for those who can't/won't rely on their ability to generate alpha.
    Feb 28 08:11 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 20 Signs The U.S. Economy Is Heading For Big Trouble In The Months Ahead [View article]
    Super vague article that shouldn't even be on SA. No statistics or links that any of these 'signs' contributes.

    as for 15 - when is the herd correct?
    Feb 21 01:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting From The U.S. Oil Bonanza [View article]

    It depends on region, most if not all of the east coast is priced off of brent (which is at $120 barrel). Which is the reason the author notes the WTI/Brent spread throughout.
    Feb 19 09:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Glu Mobile: In Search Of A Blockbuster [View article]

    Based on your comments you're far from the target audience. Riding the subway yesterday I saw 2 people playing temple run, 2 more bejeweled and there were another 3 in the train car playing but couldn't see or identify what they were playing.
    Feb 11 08:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment