Eric Fox

Thursday's Rally: Has Petrohawk Gotten Too Far Ahead of Itself?

Putting aside momentum for a moment...do you believe that the assets that HK has are worth 2.5 times what they were worth in February?

Toll Brothers' Earnings Prove There's No Case for Homebuilders

I would agree with drmalaka...I don't do expectational investing. I don't care what other people think about stocks, although I do read other opinions if they have something to say. The Homebuilders always traded on price to book. During the boom, the sell side tried to convince the buyside that we should use PE as a metric, because the industry was different and had less risk. Of course, PE at the height of the boom showed the stocks being obscenely cheap at 6 or 7 times earnings. What it was really showing was a cyclical industry where PE gives the opposite signal - a low PE means sell, a high one means buy. I am still not ready to buy with book value declining every quarter. I think the group will test its lows over the next quarter. I am a buyer of the XHB and ITB when they reach single digits.

Greenberger's Testimony: I-Banks Control the Energy Market

Never mind

commerce.senate.gov/pu...

Greenberger's Testimony: I-Banks Control the Energy Market

Do you have a link to a transcript of his comments?

The Oil Story: Dallas vs. Indonesia

Interesting article, but would it come as a shock to all that production in the United States has stopped declining? (Sorry Mr. Hubbert). In 2007 for the first time since 1991, production in the U.S. was flat with 2006. The govt predicts that domestic oil production in 2008 will again be flat with 2007 before rising 4.2% in 2009.

www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/s...

Has Oil Production Reached a 'De Facto' Peak?

And here is another fact, domestic oil production increased 8.8% from 1977 to 1985, coincidentally this was the last time that oil prices were at the the same inflation adjusted level.

Has Oil Production Reached a 'De Facto' Peak?

Interesting article, but would it come as a shock to all that production in the United States has stopped declining? (Sorry Mr. Hubbert). In 2007 for the first time since 1991, production in the U.S. was flat with 2006. The govt predicts that domestic oil production in 2008 will again be flat with 2007 before rising 4.2% in 2009.

www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/s...

No oil field in the universe has a bell shaped production curve, there are secondary peaks due to new technology, etc. There was a four year period in the 1980's where domestic oil production increased every year.

CKX Land Mystery Solved

Are you saying that SSN owns some of CKX? Or vice versa?

Perfect Oil Storm Brewing in the U.S.

wsigler..."but the MAGNITUDE of the present level is not justified by the near-term demand/supply equation. I believe there's a severe correction in the cards...that will overshoot a justifiable price - followed by.....???'

this was my exact point in the first article I posted in mid May, that fundamentals do not support the run up in oil the last 2 months. Here is a link to it:

seekingalpha.com/artic...

Perfect Oil Storm Brewing in the U.S.

richandmer...I don't maintain my own supply and demand estimates for oil. My argument is that demand will eventually be impacted and the highway report was the first evidence to confirm. I heard Buffett repeat the 87mm demand and 85mm supply statement on TV and I hate to say it since it is blasphemous and sacrilegious but I think he is wrong.

Are Oil Importers Trying to Manipulate the Market?

And don't forget Taiwan, Indonesia and Malaysia - they are also reducing subsidies for refined products.

Perfect Oil Storm Brewing in the U.S.

OK....I saw the inventory report this morning. Rip into me, go ahead.

Also, to Emerald....one reason Pension fund investors are piling into Commodities is because of the "herd instinct" common in the investing world. At the end of the fiscal year, the Pension fund investment team will examine the performance of every asset class in the previous quarter or year. Since Commodities are showing up as one of the best performing asset classes on a trailing basis then they will allocate more money here.

Perfect Oil Storm Brewing in the U.S.

ship shape...this article also appeared in the WSJ this morning:

Oil Prices Prompt Four-Day Week

A handful of small towns and community colleges are switching to four-day workweeks in an effort to help employees cope with the rising gasoline prices, and could soon be joined by some larger local governments.

Michigan's Oakland County and New York's Suffolk County are both considering putting public employees on four-day workweeks. In Oklahoma, a resolution has been introduced in the state house of representatives recommending all state and local public employers move to a shortened week to provide relief from the cost of commuting.

Some corporations are trying to help employees keep fuel costs down. Hewlett-Packard Co. is quadrupling its videoconferencing room by next year, hoping to eliminate about 20,000 employee plane trips annually


online.wsj.com/article...

Is Amazon's Free Cash Flow Overstated?

One of the points the author was trying to make, and I agree with him, is that the computation of Free Cash Flow is difficult to calculate. I have never seen a definition that would make everyone happy.

Perfect Oil Storm Brewing in the U.S.

ship shape....the data is lagging and is from 2007. Hey, maybe I am data mining now.