gato's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/85445/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/174623-25-reasons-we-will-not-have-a-depression?source=feed#comment-770148 770148
That says it all (to me). If ever a bunch of useless, (always 100% incorrect.. Ah-em.so called "professional") individuals ever existed it's the denizens of this profession. But, it's not all their fault, they.. "have".. to believe the data fed to them by the government. Anyone with half a brain, could figure out, that's blatantly untrue. For example look at the happy face they put on the unemployment numbers...duh!..It's above 10%!.....No kidding!....How about double that! How about the off-balance sheet numbers..It goes on ,and on..there's no credibility left. The Belt-way crowd (both sides) no longer represent the american people, they always sell out to the lobby- pimps who will give the biggest contribution.
But, you/they are right we're not "going" to have a depression...We are "now" in a inflationary depression mostly hidden by the gov.PPT (plunge protection team) who are manipulating the markets with their friends at goldman sac's...also known as Gov'mentSachs.
gato ]]> Fri, 20 Nov 2009 23:45:25 -0500
That says it all (to me). If ever a bunch of useless, (always 100% incorrect.. Ah-em.so called "professional") individuals ever existed it's the denizens of this profession. But, it's not all their fault, they.. "have".. to believe the data fed to them by the government. Anyone with half a brain, could figure out, that's blatantly untrue. For example look at the happy face they put on the unemployment numbers...duh!..It's above 10%!.....No kidding!....How about double that! How about the off-balance sheet numbers..It goes on ,and on..there's no credibility left. The Belt-way crowd (both sides) no longer represent the american people, they always sell out to the lobby- pimps who will give the biggest contribution.
But, you/they are right we're not "going" to have a depression...We are "now" in a inflationary depression mostly hidden by the gov.PPT (plunge protection team) who are manipulating the markets with their friends at goldman sac's...also known as Gov'mentSachs.
gato ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/167745-hands-off-goldman-bonuses?source=feed#comment-723935 723935 The bonus packages should remain, but with a "slight" modification as follows:
1- Any bonus payment above $10,000 would be payed in U.S. coins preferably in nickles, recipients would have to personally pick up the funds at a local post office passport ID required(They need the business)
2- If the bonus recipient prefers the bonus money could be placed in a gov. run fund for 5 years minimum for 3% p.a. interest to build low income housing or to rebuild bankrupt auto firms maintaining jobs for the working class.
3- All wages would be set off the Presidents pay, which would be the highest in the country $500K max. However, the first year the Pres. is in office is usually "on the job training" so, the President his salary would be adjusted for that say $150K and rising to $500K if the he/she manages to prevent(s) war.
4- Inflation would be indexed as follows: Inflation up 2% p.a.
Congress and appointees pay would be indexed "down" 2% p.a.
5- Elections and electioneering would be have to be completed in 3 months max. ]]> Wed, 21 Oct 2009 15:16:00 -0400 The bonus packages should remain, but with a "slight" modification as follows:
1- Any bonus payment above $10,000 would be payed in U.S. coins preferably in nickles, recipients would have to personally pick up the funds at a local post office passport ID required(They need the business)
2- If the bonus recipient prefers the bonus money could be placed in a gov. run fund for 5 years minimum for 3% p.a. interest to build low income housing or to rebuild bankrupt auto firms maintaining jobs for the working class.
3- All wages would be set off the Presidents pay, which would be the highest in the country $500K max. However, the first year the Pres. is in office is usually "on the job training" so, the President his salary would be adjusted for that say $150K and rising to $500K if the he/she manages to prevent(s) war.
4- Inflation would be indexed as follows: Inflation up 2% p.a.
Congress and appointees pay would be indexed "down" 2% p.a.
5- Elections and electioneering would be have to be completed in 3 months max. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/167745-hands-off-goldman-bonuses?source=feed#comment-723751 723751 Rahm is/was right:.OK,.. It's time we gave him/them what he/they want!. A crisis!...Hmmm!..Let's start a revolution by:

Re-instituting the U.S. Constitution into law(What "a revolutionary" idea!)

1-Stiff penalty of jail time (life) for "any" violation(s) such as declaring war, without the proper legal process.
2-
2- Allowing "all" citizens to bear arms, as now specified. (Just to remind these thugs, that we/they live in a dangerous world and self defence might be required)
gato]]> Wed, 21 Oct 2009 13:01:46 -0400 Rahm is/was right:.OK,.. It's time we gave him/them what he/they want!. A crisis!...Hmmm!..Let's start a revolution by:

Re-instituting the U.S. Constitution into law(What "a revolutionary" idea!)

1-Stiff penalty of jail time (life) for "any" violation(s) such as declaring war, without the proper legal process.
2-
2- Allowing "all" citizens to bear arms, as now specified. (Just to remind these thugs, that we/they live in a dangerous world and self defence might be required)
gato]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/165413-does-economic-data-on-debt-support-medium-term-bullishness?source=feed#comment-708728 708728 The detailed analysis has (in my opinion) one major flaw, that is you like all economist are using data supplied by the FED..you said:

"The Federal reserve releases a data series called Z1 every quarter. This is the basis of my analysis"

Since this is corrupted data (through their teeth) in mind boggling detail, to legitimize it, your hard work is of little value and should be viewed with as such...never the less it's thought provoking article.
Thanks!
gato]]> Thu, 08 Oct 2009 11:28:28 -0400 The detailed analysis has (in my opinion) one major flaw, that is you like all economist are using data supplied by the FED..you said:

"The Federal reserve releases a data series called Z1 every quarter. This is the basis of my analysis"

Since this is corrupted data (through their teeth) in mind boggling detail, to legitimize it, your hard work is of little value and should be viewed with as such...never the less it's thought provoking article.
Thanks!
gato]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164452-recession-is-over-depression-has-just-begun?source=feed#comment-707530 707530 What keeps popping up (for me) was, the blogger were using..."we" and "us"...(we should, or could) as if , they had some control over their own destiny. The status of being a "Serf" under the control of a system that will use what ever force necessary to dominate, both at home and abroad is not a comforting one, even for the delusional "moochers" we've become.
By allowing this to happen to us, we have forfeited the right to forge a solution, now we sit back and allow the Goldman Sacks Cartel etc (GSC) to issue counterfeit "confetti" (sometimes called money/credit) to reflate the equity markets. "Sucker punching" those with some savings, by pushing interest rated..."below".. zero and allowing banks to have interest free loans. Main st. is then forced out of conservative CD's etc into equities, where they will eventually be wiped-out by the MBA's who skipped the ethics lectures at Harvard.

Solution 1: Face the music "now" and let the depression happen wiping the dead wood from the bloated system in a fast difficult time frame, instead of this slow-motion train wreck we are in.
Solution 2: Face the fact that we are a war loving nation, do what come natural..declare war "yet again"...'cause, we may not make many good products any more, but, our (cost plus!) weapons industry is the best that "serf" taxes can buy.
gato
]]> Wed, 07 Oct 2009 16:15:29 -0400 What keeps popping up (for me) was, the blogger were using..."we" and "us"...(we should, or could) as if , they had some control over their own destiny. The status of being a "Serf" under the control of a system that will use what ever force necessary to dominate, both at home and abroad is not a comforting one, even for the delusional "moochers" we've become.
By allowing this to happen to us, we have forfeited the right to forge a solution, now we sit back and allow the Goldman Sacks Cartel etc (GSC) to issue counterfeit "confetti" (sometimes called money/credit) to reflate the equity markets. "Sucker punching" those with some savings, by pushing interest rated..."below".. zero and allowing banks to have interest free loans. Main st. is then forced out of conservative CD's etc into equities, where they will eventually be wiped-out by the MBA's who skipped the ethics lectures at Harvard.

Solution 1: Face the music "now" and let the depression happen wiping the dead wood from the bloated system in a fast difficult time frame, instead of this slow-motion train wreck we are in.
Solution 2: Face the fact that we are a war loving nation, do what come natural..declare war "yet again"...'cause, we may not make many good products any more, but, our (cost plus!) weapons industry is the best that "serf" taxes can buy.
gato
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/33396?source=feed#comment-697323 697323 gato]]> Wed, 30 Sep 2009 16:22:47 -0400 gato]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/162676-u-s-household-net-worth-gains-2-trillion?source=feed#comment-686222 686222 gato]]> Tue, 22 Sep 2009 11:09:18 -0400 gato]]> http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/32598?source=feed#comment-679291 679291 gato]]> Wed, 16 Sep 2009 12:57:25 -0400 gato]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161552-three-real-defensive-stocks?source=feed#comment-679237 679237 The selection of stocks in the "defense" sector (a politically correct term) but a misnomer (with me) where a more descriptive name would be war stocks. This would at the very least give "the politically dumb and insensitive Americans" an idea of what they were buying..and those that have ounce of morality in their hearts could act accordingly.
But, as "investment recommendations" , you are right on. ("to know what a horse will do, you have to know what a horse has done") So, a peek into the history of the IOUS of A, will shows, Americans will allow their government to "hood-wink" them into attacking other countries when the right "spin" is applied. And, now, that we have "a peace seeking president"...I find, there is very little to differentiate him from the previous war-criminal ..we get a sort'a.. "Bush light"... a more understanding family man. This helps us feel better about ourselves, as he (with "a little" help from the fed..'an..(Ahem!..excuse my language)..Goldman Sachs! ) they systematically turns the dollar into confetti, where at least it can be used for a useful purpose.
So, now, as we mortgage (yet again!) our future generations of (gullible) youths, to give their lives to protect oil fields or whatever new political philosophy in vogue. We face both moral and economic bankruptcy, with the prospect of having to defend hills of sand, for what?
Deus, tem misericordia de nos!
gato]]> Wed, 16 Sep 2009 12:29:21 -0400 The selection of stocks in the "defense" sector (a politically correct term) but a misnomer (with me) where a more descriptive name would be war stocks. This would at the very least give "the politically dumb and insensitive Americans" an idea of what they were buying..and those that have ounce of morality in their hearts could act accordingly.
But, as "investment recommendations" , you are right on. ("to know what a horse will do, you have to know what a horse has done") So, a peek into the history of the IOUS of A, will shows, Americans will allow their government to "hood-wink" them into attacking other countries when the right "spin" is applied. And, now, that we have "a peace seeking president"...I find, there is very little to differentiate him from the previous war-criminal ..we get a sort'a.. "Bush light"... a more understanding family man. This helps us feel better about ourselves, as he (with "a little" help from the fed..'an..(Ahem!..excuse my language)..Goldman Sachs! ) they systematically turns the dollar into confetti, where at least it can be used for a useful purpose.
So, now, as we mortgage (yet again!) our future generations of (gullible) youths, to give their lives to protect oil fields or whatever new political philosophy in vogue. We face both moral and economic bankruptcy, with the prospect of having to defend hills of sand, for what?
Deus, tem misericordia de nos!
gato]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161370-regulation-of-banks-and-financial-markets-one-year-later?source=feed#comment-678127 678127 Your article is presented in a very calm measured way, on possible bank regulations. With your background as a economist and in academics, your position is understandable, 'cause, you're eating from an "iron rice bowl". (as the Chinese say)..ie. you got..."job" ..security,.."up the.. jig yang"
However, if you were "cooling your heels" in the numerous unemployment lines after being downsized, I suspect, there would be more "fire" in your comments. Since most economic projection by economists (are invariably 90% way-off the mark) one wonders why, so few are unemployed. In the "real world" the product they produce is often of questionable value.
gato ]]> Tue, 15 Sep 2009 16:47:45 -0400 Your article is presented in a very calm measured way, on possible bank regulations. With your background as a economist and in academics, your position is understandable, 'cause, you're eating from an "iron rice bowl". (as the Chinese say)..ie. you got..."job" ..security,.."up the.. jig yang"
However, if you were "cooling your heels" in the numerous unemployment lines after being downsized, I suspect, there would be more "fire" in your comments. Since most economic projection by economists (are invariably 90% way-off the mark) one wonders why, so few are unemployed. In the "real world" the product they produce is often of questionable value.
gato ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159577-market-correction-brings-opportunity-to-buy-energy-stocks?source=feed#comment-658970 658970 You listed CVX (to day 09/02/09) a solid buy at $39 per share Duh?, the ..."REAL" ...quoted price is (CVX) $68.42..what gives?..Not too cool!..If you can't get something as simple as that right, you're info. is usless, 'an, that's too bad,.. 'cause you have nice charts and a good presentation...but, hey man you blew it!
gato ]]> Wed, 02 Sep 2009 15:47:20 -0400 You listed CVX (to day 09/02/09) a solid buy at $39 per share Duh?, the ..."REAL" ...quoted price is (CVX) $68.42..what gives?..Not too cool!..If you can't get something as simple as that right, you're info. is usless, 'an, that's too bad,.. 'cause you have nice charts and a good presentation...but, hey man you blew it!
gato ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159200-is-a-crash-impending?source=feed#comment-656744 656744 Congratulations,..you've kicked up some dust..that's the important point (to me) causing people to think. Not easy thing to do, with so many sleep-walkers unwilling to do the hard work of due dilligence before investing. Also, you've put your opinion "out there" no waffling (right or wrong ) unlike many economist who go: "on one hand this could happen, but on the other hand this could happen"..almost 90% are always wrong..yet they still keeping their (Ahemm!..so called) jobs.
The other point is, when investing, or getting "very logical information".. it helps to remember that :"there are no facts...only our interpretations of them.
gato]]> Tue, 01 Sep 2009 13:28:38 -0400 Congratulations,..you've kicked up some dust..that's the important point (to me) causing people to think. Not easy thing to do, with so many sleep-walkers unwilling to do the hard work of due dilligence before investing. Also, you've put your opinion "out there" no waffling (right or wrong ) unlike many economist who go: "on one hand this could happen, but on the other hand this could happen"..almost 90% are always wrong..yet they still keeping their (Ahemm!..so called) jobs.
The other point is, when investing, or getting "very logical information".. it helps to remember that :"there are no facts...only our interpretations of them.
gato]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/158904-causes-of-the-crisis-why-debt-is-bad?source=feed#comment-652665 652665 Nice.. "puff-piece"...However, a few points on Mr. Chinn. You said Chinn doesn't rant..Well!..o.k.! ..I googled him, and here what I got, which shows (like all of us) every one's got an agenda:
"I think Sarah Palin is so stupid that I can't even articulate why" · said University of Wisconsin professor ...Hmmm? Looks like a rant to me, even though I agree.
My main problem with his "Causes for the financial..etc" ('an I read.. "the whole".. the snooze piece..It's old wine in new bottles .nothing that the average joe doesn't know..just plain dull verbiage) And, it is vey apparent that it was not written to inform, only to polish the good professors Bio. (we know, in his line of (Ahemm!) work it's publish or die) which is extensive..check this out (his puffed up description of what "He" did in "one"..(Ykes!).. year!

"In 2000-2001, Professor Chinn served as Senior Staff Economist for International Finance on the Council of Economic Advisers. He is a Research Associate in the International Finance and Macroeconomics Program of the National Bureau of Economic Research, Senior Fellow of University of Wisconsin-Madison Center for the World Affairs and the Global Economy, and on the advisory council of the Institute for International Economics. He has been visiting scholar at the International Monetary Fund, the Congressional Budget Office and the Federal Reserve Board.
His work has been cited in The Economist, Financial Times, Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Business Week, and he has been interviewed on CNBC.(end quote)
("Look ma!..no hands!)
Is this guy full of hot air or what?... gimme a break!
gato]]> Sat, 29 Aug 2009 16:48:25 -0400 Nice.. "puff-piece"...However, a few points on Mr. Chinn. You said Chinn doesn't rant..Well!..o.k.! ..I googled him, and here what I got, which shows (like all of us) every one's got an agenda:
"I think Sarah Palin is so stupid that I can't even articulate why" · said University of Wisconsin professor ...Hmmm? Looks like a rant to me, even though I agree.
My main problem with his "Causes for the financial..etc" ('an I read.. "the whole".. the snooze piece..It's old wine in new bottles .nothing that the average joe doesn't know..just plain dull verbiage) And, it is vey apparent that it was not written to inform, only to polish the good professors Bio. (we know, in his line of (Ahemm!) work it's publish or die) which is extensive..check this out (his puffed up description of what "He" did in "one"..(Ykes!).. year!

"In 2000-2001, Professor Chinn served as Senior Staff Economist for International Finance on the Council of Economic Advisers. He is a Research Associate in the International Finance and Macroeconomics Program of the National Bureau of Economic Research, Senior Fellow of University of Wisconsin-Madison Center for the World Affairs and the Global Economy, and on the advisory council of the Institute for International Economics. He has been visiting scholar at the International Monetary Fund, the Congressional Budget Office and the Federal Reserve Board.
His work has been cited in The Economist, Financial Times, Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Business Week, and he has been interviewed on CNBC.(end quote)
("Look ma!..no hands!)
Is this guy full of hot air or what?... gimme a break!
gato]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/158548-the-u-s-federal-budget-in-pictures?source=feed#comment-650985 650985 Bruce E. W.(comment above)
Makes some very valid points about how we are being "played" 'an it looks like we are following the script to the letter. The divide and conquer routine (Democrat vs Republican) is getting a bit thread bare though....since with a one party system that we have, they can all get a slice... just like the Soviets...(So,..why bother with a constitution). Still, many refuse to see what is staring them in the face.
gato ]]> Fri, 28 Aug 2009 12:00:50 -0400 Bruce E. W.(comment above)
Makes some very valid points about how we are being "played" 'an it looks like we are following the script to the letter. The divide and conquer routine (Democrat vs Republican) is getting a bit thread bare though....since with a one party system that we have, they can all get a slice... just like the Soviets...(So,..why bother with a constitution). Still, many refuse to see what is staring them in the face.
gato ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/158447-u-s-national-debt-deficit-hypocrisy?source=feed#comment-647972 647972 You Democrat me Republican? ..Duh!..Is that how it is? Get a life!..the so called two party system is nothing but a scam, taught to high school kids.
There is only one party ('an they are "partying" on our tab) Observe how smooth the transition has been from Bush (the warmonger) to Obama, (the kind and sweet gentle guy) who says "Yes..we can!..Can what?... The sentence is never completed..'cause it's just PR for the politically inept pie in the sky crowd ) he has managed in his short tenure to extend war into two additional countries Pakistan & Columbia. Not bad, for a guy who wrote a book, made little contributions as a Jr. senator..but, was sent up from "central casting" to match the changing demographics in america but with the same script ...A Bush ..."light"....more acceptable one..to some.
But, the beat goes on, bomb our enemys further into the stone age than they already are, while trying to help suffering america. Will the real Obama, please stand up..the warmonger or sensitive and helpful savior,..who by the way will have to bankrupt america in order to accomplish his goals.
gato ]]> Wed, 26 Aug 2009 17:46:08 -0400 You Democrat me Republican? ..Duh!..Is that how it is? Get a life!..the so called two party system is nothing but a scam, taught to high school kids.
There is only one party ('an they are "partying" on our tab) Observe how smooth the transition has been from Bush (the warmonger) to Obama, (the kind and sweet gentle guy) who says "Yes..we can!..Can what?... The sentence is never completed..'cause it's just PR for the politically inept pie in the sky crowd ) he has managed in his short tenure to extend war into two additional countries Pakistan & Columbia. Not bad, for a guy who wrote a book, made little contributions as a Jr. senator..but, was sent up from "central casting" to match the changing demographics in america but with the same script ...A Bush ..."light"....more acceptable one..to some.
But, the beat goes on, bomb our enemys further into the stone age than they already are, while trying to help suffering america. Will the real Obama, please stand up..the warmonger or sensitive and helpful savior,..who by the way will have to bankrupt america in order to accomplish his goals.
gato ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/156660-clarifying-america-s-no-win-economic-dilemma?source=feed#comment-642410 642410 gato]]> Sun, 23 Aug 2009 17:45:31 -0400 gato]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/157046-buffett-s-latest-nyt-op-ed-the-greenback-effect?source=feed#comment-636673 636673 gato]]> Wed, 19 Aug 2009 12:37:17 -0400 gato]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/156366-why-vodafone-is-mispriced?source=feed#comment-633724 633724 gato]]> Mon, 17 Aug 2009 16:35:47 -0400 gato]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/98597-why-is-everybody-selling-as-buffett-is-loading-up?source=feed#comment-275895 275895 gato]]> Tue, 07 Oct 2008 12:48:52 -0400 gato]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/92303-looming-financial-catastrophe-a-real-inconvenient-truth?source=feed#comment-240922 240922
Change, is the only constant, (we want others to change while we remain "constantly" perfect) we want to change (bad) government(s)....our wifes...our children... etc....(fill in the ****** blank)...
Solution(s)
1. The U.S.of A is bankrupt, (become honest, even though it hurts) and declare.....BANKRUPTCY... and clear (we're welshing!) like Argentina did, issue a new currency backed by an (1) ounce of silver payable on demand and get back to work.
OR
Solution 2.
Declare "War", a first strike (atomic attack) on an enemy (pick any enemy, one with a large population and lot of oil.) with the clear understanding that it will be genocide..like we did in Japan, and force the rest of the world to Pay Tribute, just like ancient Rome, rule by force through the existing military bases we have located throughout the world. AND...proclaim it "Pax Americana"..(mission accomplished!)
]]> Thu, 28 Aug 2008 11:57:41 -0400
Change, is the only constant, (we want others to change while we remain "constantly" perfect) we want to change (bad) government(s)....our wifes...our children... etc....(fill in the ****** blank)...
Solution(s)
1. The U.S.of A is bankrupt, (become honest, even though it hurts) and declare.....BANKRUPTCY... and clear (we're welshing!) like Argentina did, issue a new currency backed by an (1) ounce of silver payable on demand and get back to work.
OR
Solution 2.
Declare "War", a first strike (atomic attack) on an enemy (pick any enemy, one with a large population and lot of oil.) with the clear understanding that it will be genocide..like we did in Japan, and force the rest of the world to Pay Tribute, just like ancient Rome, rule by force through the existing military bases we have located throughout the world. AND...proclaim it "Pax Americana"..(mission accomplished!)
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91952-what-s-next-for-brazil-s-economy?source=feed#comment-236703 236703 USA) he was always looking for "A one handed economist, 'cause, the ones who advised him, were always telling him.."Such and such could happen to the economy,....BUT..then, on the other hand...this could happen"...I guess he figured, if he could find that "one handed guy" his decisions would be easier....Now!..where was I?... Oh!....yea!..Your take on the Brazilian economy...well, after checking your bio. ('an seeing that you're 23 years old....Hmmm!..it clicks!...you're still wet behind the ears)..so, I'll go light.
I not an economist so take what I say with 2 grains of salt, (At the very least) you article was long, full of data essential to understanding where a country's economy is going....Here comes the ...BUT,.. the piece lacks an understanding for the social/cultural/ethics of a country, which in my opinion reduces it to a "dry" mathematical equation.
For example you said in reference to the first comment on corruption:

"Honestly, I also have to admit that it is a topic of which my knowledge is very limited. However, if I take your points at face value they would obviously constitute an important obstacle for whatever Brazil sets out to "become".

That's a good honest response, but, why don't you know this?...data on crime in every country is widely available on the Internet..did you think that info. is not important?...If you would pull up the web sites of Brazilian news papers (Folio do Sao Paulo,..or..uol.com.br ) you would find that there is a (undeclared) Civil War raging in the big cities of brazil.....What?..Are you talking about?...Hmmm!..(Only this) I talking about the "narco-terrorist" drug gangs who dominate the cities of Rio, Sao Paulo and most of the other cities. They often attack police stations, with heavy military weapons..grenades, machine guns etc. more people are get killed there, than in Iraq....of course, Iraq is a small country compared with Brazil ..(expecially population wise). The people (honest ones..Diogenes are you there?) who live in those cities have to live behind steel bars..they have to imprison themselves in their homes to protect themselves and families.as the streets run red with blood.

Bottom line,...Claus?... If you don't know any of this (and most non-Brazilians don't, 'cause the gov. tries to hid it)..in my opinion, your
assessment of the Brazilian economy is not complete, but, is excusable, because of your tender age. I guess my main point is: there's a lot more to an economy than the import and the export numbers...What say you?]]> Fri, 22 Aug 2008 14:35:56 -0400 USA) he was always looking for "A one handed economist, 'cause, the ones who advised him, were always telling him.."Such and such could happen to the economy,....BUT..then, on the other hand...this could happen"...I guess he figured, if he could find that "one handed guy" his decisions would be easier....Now!..where was I?... Oh!....yea!..Your take on the Brazilian economy...well, after checking your bio. ('an seeing that you're 23 years old....Hmmm!..it clicks!...you're still wet behind the ears)..so, I'll go light.
I not an economist so take what I say with 2 grains of salt, (At the very least) you article was long, full of data essential to understanding where a country's economy is going....Here comes the ...BUT,.. the piece lacks an understanding for the social/cultural/ethics of a country, which in my opinion reduces it to a "dry" mathematical equation.
For example you said in reference to the first comment on corruption:

"Honestly, I also have to admit that it is a topic of which my knowledge is very limited. However, if I take your points at face value they would obviously constitute an important obstacle for whatever Brazil sets out to "become".

That's a good honest response, but, why don't you know this?...data on crime in every country is widely available on the Internet..did you think that info. is not important?...If you would pull up the web sites of Brazilian news papers (Folio do Sao Paulo,..or..uol.com.br ) you would find that there is a (undeclared) Civil War raging in the big cities of brazil.....What?..Are you talking about?...Hmmm!..(Only this) I talking about the "narco-terrorist" drug gangs who dominate the cities of Rio, Sao Paulo and most of the other cities. They often attack police stations, with heavy military weapons..grenades, machine guns etc. more people are get killed there, than in Iraq....of course, Iraq is a small country compared with Brazil ..(expecially population wise). The people (honest ones..Diogenes are you there?) who live in those cities have to live behind steel bars..they have to imprison themselves in their homes to protect themselves and families.as the streets run red with blood.

Bottom line,...Claus?... If you don't know any of this (and most non-Brazilians don't, 'cause the gov. tries to hid it)..in my opinion, your
assessment of the Brazilian economy is not complete, but, is excusable, because of your tender age. I guess my main point is: there's a lot more to an economy than the import and the export numbers...What say you?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/92174-three-long-term-investments-in-latin-america?source=feed#comment-236599 236599 Fri, 22 Aug 2008 12:41:37 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/92200-homebuilders-try-to-ride-tax-credit-wave-housing-tracker?source=feed#comment-236544 236544 ]]> Fri, 22 Aug 2008 11:48:41 -0400 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91621-petrobras-buy-and-sit-tight-like-soros?source=feed#comment-235939 235939 "O petróleo não é do presidente da República ou da Petrobras, ele é do povo brasileiro" (political spin)
The senior partner calls the shots...this"soap opera" will have a long run.,stay tuned!

]]> Thu, 21 Aug 2008 17:13:45 -0400 "O petróleo não é do presidente da República ou da Petrobras, ele é do povo brasileiro" (political spin)
The senior partner calls the shots...this"soap opera" will have a long run.,stay tuned!

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87227-the-top-5-looming-financial-issues?source=feed#comment-216617 216617
Economy..a ticking time bomb....tick.!...tick!
"Derivatives massively leverage the debt in an economy, making it ever more difficult for the underlying real economy to service its debt obligations and curtailing real economic activity, which can cause a recession or even depression". Is the view of Marriner S. Eccles, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman from November, 1934 to February, 1948, too high a level of debt was one of the primary causes of the 1920s-30s Great Depression

My concern is about about all the talk on derivatives, and watch the destruction of the dollar, the sub-prime loans etc, etc....The main types of derivatives are futures, forwards, options, and swaps. (OTC) derivatives are contracts that are traded (and privately negotiated) directly between two parties, without going through an exchange or other intermediary. Products such as swaps, forward rate agreements, and exotic options are almost always traded in this way. The OTC derivatives market is huge. According to the BIS (Bank for International Settlements), the total outstanding notional amount is USD 516 trillion (as of June 2007)

According to the BIS the total derivative market in 2002 was $100 trillion dollars. Warren Buffet thought then that. that could be a problem because he had just acquired Gen Re Insurance company that had some derivatives and he wanted to sell them...Well, he couldn't find takers....He termed derivate as “financial weapons of mass destruction”. I think he was thinking that if the LTCH (Long Term Capital Management hedge fund )which had just gone " belly-up" with losses of $5 billion and nearly brought down the US financial system. So, he had to be thinking "what would happen if the $100 billion derivatives had such a problem". Fast forward to 2007 and the derivatives had changed to (according to BIS)...These amounts are hard (for me)to imagine...'cause we're talking “big bucks here” We not talking money in terms of main street every day shopping, but more in terms of petrol-dollars IOU's, etc., which fluctuates in value by the second. Never the less, to put it into context, so that a small time “investor” like me can "try" to get a handle on it, here are a few comparative monetary numbers to use "as economic land marks"....Take a peek!:

USA, GDP (annual gross domestic product)....$15 trillion
USA money supply................... trillion
USA Federal Budget (2007)................... trillion
USA Maximum "legal" debt..................... trillion
World GDP (all nations 2007)................$... trillion
Unfunded SSI (socials security) and Medicare.$60 trillion ****Uh...Oh, what's that?!
Total world real estate value...............$7... trillion
Total value of stocks and bonds..............$10... trillion
Total value of world's derivatives(BIS 07)...$516 trillion
Total war exp. Afghanistan $200 + Iraq $850...$1.05 trillion

Getting the picture?...not pretty!

Note:The BIS notes that the $516 trillion is “notional value” which really means the melt- down-value, or a complete wipe-out of the world derivate market, they also state that "only" $11 trillion was the nominal financial risk in 2007....Oh...geees!..n... I feel better!

Some of us, think that the FED. (U. S. Fed. Reserve) is a US Government organization who's function is to protect the nations economy. The term "Federal Reserve"
(I think) prefixed with U.S. leads us astray. In reality the Federal Reserve is a private, not public institution, representing the interests of the US banks through its 12 regional branches. Therefore, the nature of the Fed is that it is a banking system insider. The Fed's first and foremost defends the banking system and "only" secondarily represents broad economic interests as mandated by the US Congress. These two objectives are not necessarily always in harmony with each other, because the bankers can bring "heavy" pressure by lobbying and with reelection donations. For example, the most profitable cycle for the banks started during the 2001 recession as a result of the Fed’s super loose monetary policy eventually leading to today’s disaster in the housing market.
Today, we are in the midst of "a worldwide financial system crisis". That is why, even more so than before, the greatest priority for the Fed is an immediate rescue of the banking sector. The most pressing need for the Fed now is to "buy more time," which is desperately needed by the banks in order to continue their de-levereging process. To date, this de-levereging process has been happening way too slowly and with huge losses for the banks. In April/May, many banks recapitalized their balance sheets by writing off bad loans and issuing long term noncumulative preferred stock (at 7.75% – 8.50%..but not available to "average" stockholders..(actuall... doing them a favor)..Hmmmm?) to bolster their cash positions and support their diminishing lending ability.

My concern is that this entire unregulated market "only needs a small jolt" to set off a unstoppable global domino type collapse, similar to Bear Sterns fiasco, which almost sent us into the abyss. Bill Gross (US. bond guru) has said “what we are witnessing is essentially the breakdown of our modern day banking systematically, these (derivatives)are not just risk management tools, they are a new way to make money...outside, the normal Central Bank's liquidity rules. It's “a shadow banking system”...How?...becau... they are private contracts (promises to pay) between two (or more) institutions”.....AND,... this!.... A complex of leveraged lending, so hard to understand that the Fed. Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke required a "refresher course" from a hedge fund manager in mid August (2007) trying to understand them. In short, Warren Buffet, Bill Gross and Treasury Sec. Henry Paulson and Ben Bernanke couldn't figure out what's going on in the derivative market or world markets.

My take on this ('an, I'm not an economist...Thank heavens!) is: that the world economic system is out of control and the World Central Banks are looking at each other wondering "who's going to blink first". We, ....as in "us"...you and me...are on our own, we can't relay and wait for things to get better we have “self-protect” as best we know how, for our families. Ben Bernacke (who is the designated fall guy)has been handed "a hot potatoe" and now, plain a simple, doesn't know what to do. So, he's doing the only thing he can do, keep his fingers crossed, jaw-bone the public into thinking that he's in charge. But, there's no-way we can clear away $615 trillion of derivatives without a complete rearrangement of the world's finances. Even the $11 trillion is too big of a nut to crack. "If"....or I should say "when" the general public lose faith in "fiat" currencies (such as the US dollar, Euro, etc... which is happening) they...(and we) will panic and push gold, silver, and "hard" assets into the stratosphere. And, economic order will only be reestablished after we learn that those hard assets are "not" the answer. Can you imagine having a lot of gold/silver when no one else has any and trying to buy bread, milk etc. ....??.
Solutions? The economic philosophy has to change, "paper pushers" who do not produce anything should not get special tax breaks like hedge fund managers who only pay 15% on trading income this includes investors like me. On shore "producers would have to be encouraged and off shore co. who now pay zipp in taxes such as GE would have to pay a minimum amount. Savings have to be encouraged instead of discouraged, real estate "house flipping" discouraged. Houses are places for people to live in not trading not speculating. Gas conservation by increasing the minimum mileage and "flex" vehicles,done NOW..not 20 years from now and be able to run on gas or ethanol. Finally the currency will have to be tied to something of value...silver/oil /etc as a means to try and keep the governmental kleptomaniacs from causing more inflation. Keep the faith!
gato.



]]> Mon, 28 Jul 2008 13:00:25 -0400
Economy..a ticking time bomb....tick.!...tick!
"Derivatives massively leverage the debt in an economy, making it ever more difficult for the underlying real economy to service its debt obligations and curtailing real economic activity, which can cause a recession or even depression". Is the view of Marriner S. Eccles, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman from November, 1934 to February, 1948, too high a level of debt was one of the primary causes of the 1920s-30s Great Depression

My concern is about about all the talk on derivatives, and watch the destruction of the dollar, the sub-prime loans etc, etc....The main types of derivatives are futures, forwards, options, and swaps. (OTC) derivatives are contracts that are traded (and privately negotiated) directly between two parties, without going through an exchange or other intermediary. Products such as swaps, forward rate agreements, and exotic options are almost always traded in this way. The OTC derivatives market is huge. According to the BIS (Bank for International Settlements), the total outstanding notional amount is USD 516 trillion (as of June 2007)

According to the BIS the total derivative market in 2002 was $100 trillion dollars. Warren Buffet thought then that. that could be a problem because he had just acquired Gen Re Insurance company that had some derivatives and he wanted to sell them...Well, he couldn't find takers....He termed derivate as “financial weapons of mass destruction”. I think he was thinking that if the LTCH (Long Term Capital Management hedge fund )which had just gone " belly-up" with losses of $5 billion and nearly brought down the US financial system. So, he had to be thinking "what would happen if the $100 billion derivatives had such a problem". Fast forward to 2007 and the derivatives had changed to (according to BIS)...These amounts are hard (for me)to imagine...'cause we're talking “big bucks here” We not talking money in terms of main street every day shopping, but more in terms of petrol-dollars IOU's, etc., which fluctuates in value by the second. Never the less, to put it into context, so that a small time “investor” like me can "try" to get a handle on it, here are a few comparative monetary numbers to use "as economic land marks"....Take a peek!:

USA, GDP (annual gross domestic product)....$15 trillion
USA money supply................... trillion
USA Federal Budget (2007)................... trillion
USA Maximum "legal" debt..................... trillion
World GDP (all nations 2007)................$... trillion
Unfunded SSI (socials security) and Medicare.$60 trillion ****Uh...Oh, what's that?!
Total world real estate value...............$7... trillion
Total value of stocks and bonds..............$10... trillion
Total value of world's derivatives(BIS 07)...$516 trillion
Total war exp. Afghanistan $200 + Iraq $850...$1.05 trillion

Getting the picture?...not pretty!

Note:The BIS notes that the $516 trillion is “notional value” which really means the melt- down-value, or a complete wipe-out of the world derivate market, they also state that "only" $11 trillion was the nominal financial risk in 2007....Oh...geees!..n... I feel better!

Some of us, think that the FED. (U. S. Fed. Reserve) is a US Government organization who's function is to protect the nations economy. The term "Federal Reserve"
(I think) prefixed with U.S. leads us astray. In reality the Federal Reserve is a private, not public institution, representing the interests of the US banks through its 12 regional branches. Therefore, the nature of the Fed is that it is a banking system insider. The Fed's first and foremost defends the banking system and "only" secondarily represents broad economic interests as mandated by the US Congress. These two objectives are not necessarily always in harmony with each other, because the bankers can bring "heavy" pressure by lobbying and with reelection donations. For example, the most profitable cycle for the banks started during the 2001 recession as a result of the Fed’s super loose monetary policy eventually leading to today’s disaster in the housing market.
Today, we are in the midst of "a worldwide financial system crisis". That is why, even more so than before, the greatest priority for the Fed is an immediate rescue of the banking sector. The most pressing need for the Fed now is to "buy more time," which is desperately needed by the banks in order to continue their de-levereging process. To date, this de-levereging process has been happening way too slowly and with huge losses for the banks. In April/May, many banks recapitalized their balance sheets by writing off bad loans and issuing long term noncumulative preferred stock (at 7.75% – 8.50%..but not available to "average" stockholders..(actuall... doing them a favor)..Hmmmm?) to bolster their cash positions and support their diminishing lending ability.

My concern is that this entire unregulated market "only needs a small jolt" to set off a unstoppable global domino type collapse, similar to Bear Sterns fiasco, which almost sent us into the abyss. Bill Gross (US. bond guru) has said “what we are witnessing is essentially the breakdown of our modern day banking systematically, these (derivatives)are not just risk management tools, they are a new way to make money...outside, the normal Central Bank's liquidity rules. It's “a shadow banking system”...How?...becau... they are private contracts (promises to pay) between two (or more) institutions”.....AND,... this!.... A complex of leveraged lending, so hard to understand that the Fed. Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke required a "refresher course" from a hedge fund manager in mid August (2007) trying to understand them. In short, Warren Buffet, Bill Gross and Treasury Sec. Henry Paulson and Ben Bernanke couldn't figure out what's going on in the derivative market or world markets.

My take on this ('an, I'm not an economist...Thank heavens!) is: that the world economic system is out of control and the World Central Banks are looking at each other wondering "who's going to blink first". We, ....as in "us"...you and me...are on our own, we can't relay and wait for things to get better we have “self-protect” as best we know how, for our families. Ben Bernacke (who is the designated fall guy)has been handed "a hot potatoe" and now, plain a simple, doesn't know what to do. So, he's doing the only thing he can do, keep his fingers crossed, jaw-bone the public into thinking that he's in charge. But, there's no-way we can clear away $615 trillion of derivatives without a complete rearrangement of the world's finances. Even the $11 trillion is too big of a nut to crack. "If"....or I should say "when" the general public lose faith in "fiat" currencies (such as the US dollar, Euro, etc... which is happening) they...(and we) will panic and push gold, silver, and "hard" assets into the stratosphere. And, economic order will only be reestablished after we learn that those hard assets are "not" the answer. Can you imagine having a lot of gold/silver when no one else has any and trying to buy bread, milk etc. ....??.
Solutions? The economic philosophy has to change, "paper pushers" who do not produce anything should not get special tax breaks like hedge fund managers who only pay 15% on trading income this includes investors like me. On shore "producers would have to be encouraged and off shore co. who now pay zipp in taxes such as GE would have to pay a minimum amount. Savings have to be encouraged instead of discouraged, real estate "house flipping" discouraged. Houses are places for people to live in not trading not speculating. Gas conservation by increasing the minimum mileage and "flex" vehicles,done NOW..not 20 years from now and be able to run on gas or ethanol. Finally the currency will have to be tied to something of value...silver/oil /etc as a means to try and keep the governmental kleptomaniacs from causing more inflation. Keep the faith!
gato.



]]>