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mikeurl

mikeurl
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  • Teva working to protect key drug's sales ahead of generic competition [View news story]
    I sold off all my position into this strength. I'm not sure I trust management to pull off a seamless transition when Copaxone goes generic. If they can't the risk is that so much of their profitability goes away rather quickly.

    I think they're priced now with the assumption they pull this off without a hitch. I'd be looking to buy back lower if top and bottom lines take a hit.

    But kudos to Teva for getting the 3 injection patent just under the wire. I'm assuming that is why the stock finally started to move. I'm not convinced that cheap insurance companies aren't going to twist themselves into a pretzel trying to force people on the generic. So it feels too risky for me.
    Mar 3 12:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The NASDAQ Really Overvalued? [View article]
    This is an excellent analysis. As a person who owns 2 of the "mature" companies I often found myself wondering how the heck NASDAQ has gotten back almost to 2000 levels.

    Well, it's clear the the bubble is there but is isolated to a certain kind of stock. These are stocks I'd never even look at because they don't pay dividends or they are priced on some metric that i hate (eyeballs, revenue growth without profits, etc).

    It's clear now the only reason the NASDAQ isn't insanely overvalued is that a lot of the big cap stocks in the index are actually UNDERvalued. If the mature big cap companies catch up to this overvaluation the NASDAQ will go to the moon...could make 7000 easy.
    Mar 2 11:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Outguns Intel [View article]
    I don't mean to simplify it too much but isn't this a natural result of Apple controlling everything from the sourcing of sand for the silicon all the way up the the final finished device?

    It seems to me like it would be a miracle if Intel could produce a chip that could keep up with that full ecosystem when running "real world" applications. i don't think that Intel can ever hope to win on a comparison between finished devices in a head-to-head with Apple.

    If they do it would certainly say good things about Intel and their partners and really bad things about Apple.
    Feb 28 10:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Economic Take-Off In 2014 Due To Lower Fiscal Drag? [View article]
    I mentioned how long financial panics last. But you can have the last word, I'm detecting some trollery.
    Feb 8 06:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Economic Take-Off In 2014 Due To Lower Fiscal Drag? [View article]
    The length of the Great Depression is very easy to check. I'll just say you're wrong.
    Feb 2 10:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Economic Take-Off In 2014 Due To Lower Fiscal Drag? [View article]
    We'll be looking for all kinds of reasons for why the economy turns when it does.

    I think the overriding factor, that is really simplistic and not very sexy to talk about, is that recessions caused by financial panics tend to last 7 to 10 years. It is the nature of the thing.

    So if 2014 is the year (about 7 years from the start of the crisis) we'll look to all kinds of reasons why but the actual reason will simply be that enough time has passed since 2008 and people are ready to stop being afraid.
    Feb 1 10:26 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Report: Intel to unveil Android/Windows hybrids, Microsoft/Google not on board [View news story]
    If I'm not mistaken Intel said months ago this is on the way. It's really just a question of when.

    Intel will probably roll its own version of Android along with a partner like Asus. While they're at it they should make sure the device can run Linux too. Then it can triple-boot into Windows, Android or Linux. That's a game changer right there.
    Jan 3 07:09 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Memo To Intel: Prepare For Weak Holiday Sales [View article]
    Win 8 isn't bad. There is just a completely embarrassing lack of apps that are optimized for Win 8.

    Maybe Intel should tale some of that billion dollars for promotions and have a suite of Win 8 apps written that will run on tablets.
    Dec 5 03:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Another Lie You Shouldn't Believe [View article]
    I've argued that Intel does not even need mobile chip revenue. They could do quite well feeding the legacy PC business and focusing on growth in the datacenter.

    However, Intel has always been very conscious of 'brand awareness'. This goes all the way back to their Intel Inside campaign. Personally I think Intel wants to be in mobile because that is where virtually all the buzz is. I don't think it is purely about the revenue and profits. In fact one could argue that an Intel big in mobile will have higher revenue but nearly every other financial metric will suffer.

    I don't know if their push into mobile makes sense. Their profit margins will suffer considerably and they're going to be taking on very lean competitors. They may be trying to replicate their PC success (brand awareness, premium prices) in a market that isn't worth winning (tablets, smartphones, etc). The cost, and effort, and time needed to make Intel Inside mean something on a smartphone may be a Pyrrhic victory (assuming, that is, they can even do it).
    Dec 3 12:40 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel TV Flop Is Huge For Investors [View article]
    On a selfish note i was hoping Intel would make this work. The cable companies make horrid menu interfaces. The problem with set top boxes, so far, is they don't integrate well into the cable systems so that it is a seamless experience. I was hoping that was what Intel was working on.

    I would have bought one...
    Nov 27 11:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Big Winner From Intel's Analyst Day? ARM Holdings [View article]
    I've argued that missing the mobile transition isn't that big a deal. Intel could afford to wait, see where the market was going and then start their processes to meet that market at some point. The chips are low margin chips and it wouldn't have made sense for Intel to be all over the place trying to figure out which tech was going to take off.

    It's pretty clear now where the trends are going. Bay Trail is step one in moving intel into the x86 tablet space. Fairly soon there will be a version of Android that will run on those chips as well. My suspicion is that what we'll have then is a 2 in 1 tablet that can run Win 8 or android. It will be, IMO, a game changer.

    But all of this is possible because Intel took its time and waited to see where the market was headed. And now they're using their in-house expertise to begin to clip off competitors at the knees. In 5 years we might be talking about the brilliant Intel strategy of letting all the competitors fight it out and then stepping in around late 2014 with tablets and smartphones that can do basically everything.

    As for the datacenter i think that is something to always be concerned about. Any business with enormous profit margins is going to be a huge target for competition. However, Intel has built a substantial moat around that business. Also, Intel has gone "all in" on its strategy of being both design and fab...I think that will pay off in terms of keeping the fabless operators at bay in their high margin business. Could I be wrong? Of course, but my bet is Intel will hold its lead and its business in the datacenter. i also think intel is going to surprise everyone at how strong they come into the mobile market sometime in 2014 and start to dominate sections of it by 2015.

    What does this all mean? The same thing it has meant for Intel for at least 10 years. Buy below 20, sell above 27 :) (Hint, i think we may get our below 20 moment in the not to distant future.)
    Nov 24 01:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Big Winner From Intel's Analyst Day? ARM Holdings [View article]
    I'm less concerned about Intel's attitude toward ARM than I would have been prior to Bay Trail. I think Intel knows/believes they are going to start to crush ARM in both features and performance fairly soon.

    Intel has had its "tablet moment" with the t100 and the next barrier is the smartphone moment. I think it will come and Intel will be right back in the mix with a competitive x86 platform. I don't think it will be too long before smartphones can run a full win 8 install, with all the functionality that comes along with it.

    Maybe their willingness to fab is related to them not feeling quite so threatened anymore.
    Nov 22 04:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Vindicated, Very Competitive With Apple's A7 [View article]
    I'm not so sure that Intel even has to keep up with Apple. Apple has a pretty distinct advantage in that the design the entire device where Intel only designs the chip and then depends on other companies to get the hardware shell right.

    Bay Trail can already competently run a Win 8 tablet and even do some light gaming. Asus managed to put it all together in a package that has absurd battery life.

    When Intel creates a mobile chip that can "dual boot" into Win 8 OR Android OR Linux it is going to blow the doors off the whole segment. I don't know where, or even if, that is on the roadmap but it should be. If Intel made a chip like that they'd win back the tinkerers.
    Nov 19 11:02 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Brings Out The Big Guns [View article]
    At least it's a fight now. Prior to Bay Trail the Intel mobile processors were junk. NOW with a decent chip Intel can start to do what they do best--use their fab advantage to produce faster and better generations of chips faster and better than the fabless competitors.

    Intel has to match and then surpass Qualcomm. If they don't then there is no point for Intel so spend billions upon billions on its own fab factories. I see a lot of this battle as two competing strategies. One strategy says that you should design the chip but outsource the design. The other strategy says you should both design and fabricate the chips yourself.

    With what is finally a competent entry we'll be able to see if Intel starts to grind away on Qualcomm and start to build a lead. if they can't then their fab model might need some rethinking.
    Nov 15 11:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Bay Trail And Quark Can Change Its Fortunes [View article]
    Margins get hurt, no question.

    But Intel needs to have competent entries in the mobile arena. Why? The same reason Google needs Gmail.

    Intel has a monopoly to protect. The x86 desktop is still a huge money maker for Intel and a lot of that is driven by sales of desktops to businesses. Lately people have been putting more and more pressure on IT to make their networks support iOS and Android. i don't think it will be very long before employees start to demand that company networks fully support macbooks and chromebooks (which may or may not have Intel chips in them).

    And then Intel would be in real trouble because that fat juicy space they have in the center of everyone's desk could go away. In fact i'm sure that it already happening in some businesses. So Intel needs a strong mobile presence not so much for the incremental revenue but because they need to defend the lower end in order to preserve the higher end. As Google showed us, it's all about building an ecosystem around your monopoly that defends the core even if you lose some money on the products supporting the core of the business.

    With Bay Trail it is clear Intel gets it. I'm sure it wasn't easy for them to design that chip because they were VERY dependent on high power consumption chips for a very long time. Their first Atom chips ran so hot they needed a separate fan! In those days i had my doubts Intel could turn their ship around fast enough. And it took them a long time but Bay Trail is a huge success (note, I own an asus t100 with a bay trail in it).
    Nov 12 12:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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