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  • Crude futures jump on a surprise inventory draw  [View news story]
    Isn't that the 2nd large negative line 13 in a row... Hmm
    Feb 10, 2016. 03:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil can't hold gains  [View news story]
    We need to see convincing declines in NA or nothing has changed. If it goes down 40 next week then 50 the week after that may move the needle as it could be the long awaited decline in the fracked well production curve.
    Feb 10, 2016. 11:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Say No To A Massive Dividend Increase  [View article]
    I'm sick of hearing about how I can't get a fair share of apple's cash because it's overseas. I invested in Apple to get that cash as well as most of the FCF. Granted that a substantial chunk needs to go to share repurchases but apple has, and continues to make, so much money they can afford to substantially increase the dividend. Anything less than 20% increase would be disappointing. Also I really want them to come up with a capital return plan that deals in some way with repatriation of their cash hoard over time. Yes even if they have to pay tax on it.
    Feb 8, 2016. 03:49 PM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tableau: Forensic Analysis Of A Disaster  [View article]
    Excellent article. It is completely true that the "vertical" players like Salesforce make this much harder. If you are going to use the Salesforce platform anyway then maybe their visualization tool is good enough... At least at first.

    Even if Tableau is best of breed it becomes more challenging over time to sell into markets where the big ERP players begin to integrate their own visualization tools into their products.

    Having said that I know from personal experience that Tableau works very hard to make their product "bolt on" as quickly and easily as possible. So I would not count them out. But your point about increasing the headcount faster than the growth rate is well taken. That does seem to indicate a problem with the notion of the company as a sizzling hot win machine.

    Frankly I'm likely on the sidelines for the foreseeable future. I'd like to see some GAAP earnings as well as a better indication they can leverage all these new hires into a faster top line growth rate.

    Also... I'm a little bit put off by how much stock based compensation the founders are extracting every year. I think they deserve to get paid but damn...
    Feb 8, 2016. 12:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Gross Margins Impressive And Sustainable  [View article]
    I'm less concerned about growth than I am about gross margin. If Apple can maintain gross margin then even without growth I'll be a very happy investor in 10 years.
    Feb 6, 2016. 07:33 PM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tableau down 38.8% after reporting slowing license growth; Splunk, Qlik also lower  [View news story]
    GAAP expenses being way up should surprise no one. It's the enormous stock based compensation reported already on form 4's. I don't think one can own this company until their revenue can overwhelm the big increases in Stock based compensation that are in the pipeline. One of the co-founders has over 4 million options to buy at 0. That's a lot of expense for a company this size to absorb...
    Feb 4, 2016. 04:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Qualcomm: I'm Not Buying The Panic, But I Am Buying More Shares  [View article]
    For a while there I thought I may be able to buy at 39! This volatility combined with extreme pessimism is presenting great entry points.
    Feb 3, 2016. 05:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil blasts off despite bearish inventory numbers  [View news story]
    US production is only down a hair. Wake me when it falls under 9000.
    Feb 3, 2016. 04:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil blasts off despite bearish inventory numbers  [View news story]
    I think below $30 we're going to see nervous traders latch on to anything as an excuse to rally. But if there is never any follow up and the inventory keeps building then rumors alone won't do it.

    It seems like a fantasy to me that these countries will work together until oil breaks about $25 then I think we'll see some forced alliances. For now if they can talk it up to $35 that's all they need. For now.
    Feb 3, 2016. 03:26 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Qualcomm/ARM outperform, Intel underperforms after Google server report  [View news story]
    This is good news but I would not get too excited yet. Google may simply be angling for better pricing from Intel. Whether they'd actually roll out large scale use of ARM in their data centers is a long ways away.
    Feb 3, 2016. 11:23 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Corning declares $0.135 dividend  [View news story]
    This is how you win buying and holding GLW. Since I bought around 15 my forward yield is closer to 3.6% and could hit 4% next year... And so on.
    Feb 3, 2016. 10:57 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Tim Cook Must Do To Turn Apple Around, 2013 Vs. 2016  [View article]
    As a shareholder I tend to leave product development to the experts at Apple. Though I have questioned their decision not to make a 2 in 1. Given Microsoft's recent success with Surface it's looking even more likely the market is going to demand a 2 in 1. Further, Apple is having ongoing difficulty convincing people to buy both a mac and an iPad. I think it will keep getting harder.

    Raising the dividend is a no-brainer. They should up it by at least 20%. They should also make some kind of firm commitment about how much FCF they are going to return to shareholders. They really need to stop accumulating cash.
    Jan 31, 2016. 12:30 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Problem Is That It Has Conquered The World  [View article]
    I'd be happy if Apple never grew again and only adds 15 billion a quarter to their cash pile. At that rate they could buy back the entire company just using free cash flow.

    I've learned over time that eventually, one way or another, free cash flow forces the stock price up.
    Jan 30, 2016. 02:52 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bloomberg: Apple developing extended range wireless charging  [View news story]
    If Apple can wirelessly charge at a distance of a meter they will have broken a basic law of physics. It's called the inverse square law if you want to look it up. Magnetic resonance may help that problem but it won't fix it. The energy density a meter away from a power source would be incredibly small.
    Jan 29, 2016. 10:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Russian talk of output cuts just a tease for oil market grasping at straws  [View news story]
    KSA wants to keep the price above 30 but below 50. In that range they can stay in this price war for a long time. If the price crashes below 30 I think we'll see a lot of "talk" about production cuts that never actually happen. The objective is just to talk up the price a little so they can keep relentless pressure on high cost producers.

    Mission accomplished. At least for now.
    Jan 29, 2016. 10:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment