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mikeurl

mikeurl
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  • Pitney Bowes: Risk-Reward Opportunity Decidedly Negative [View article]
    I remain suspicious of the "all over the board" profitability of the software side of the business.

    I had bought PBI confidently back in the days when the software line was growing 20% a year and had similar profit margins. Then the profitability just vanished and there was some hand waving about weakness in Europe.

    It's good to see the paper mailing line come back to life but that's a business that will necessarily eat itself alive over time. Without software the company will eventually be bankrupt and i don't trust their software. What the heck happened to Volly?
    Aug 6 05:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Corning +3.7%; optical, environmental sales fuel Q1 beat [View news story]
    Corning isn't the kind of company that knocks it out of the park. But they have a steady diversified (not broadly diversified, but smart diversification into key areas) portfolio of product lines that let them deliver quarter after quarter.

    Really been impressed with GLW over time. I sold out a long time ago under the assumption that the loss of big glass would destroy the company. Their margins may never again be what they were in the heyday of big glass LCD panels but they've recovered nicely.

    They're back on my radar to add on weakness.
    Apr 28 10:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon: Stay Away After Results [View article]
    It is impossible to know when but eventually shareholders will demand some kind of return from Amazon other than just increases in the share price. There is a limit to how far people will bid up a stock that has no plan to every return value to the owners of the company.

    Again, there is no way to know when this will happen but it will eventually. It always does.
    Apr 25 01:23 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google misses by $0.15, misses on revenue [View news story]
    Ask anyone in Apple how much it hurts when the growth rate slows down even if the company remains ridiculously profitable. For Google it might be even worse because Google doesn't have to fear activist shareholders due to their class-based share structure. At least with Apple once their growth slowed they were pushed into doing substantial dividends and buybacks. Google won't have that pressure.

    Google's annual growth rate has gone from 29% to 32% to 19%. It's just a matter of time before the momentum players abandon ship. And it might be a really sickening drop once people realize that Sergey rules with an iron fist and has no incentive at all to pay dividends or buy back shares.
    Apr 16 05:13 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Teva working to protect key drug's sales ahead of generic competition [View news story]
    I sold off all my position into this strength. I'm not sure I trust management to pull off a seamless transition when Copaxone goes generic. If they can't the risk is that so much of their profitability goes away rather quickly.

    I think they're priced now with the assumption they pull this off without a hitch. I'd be looking to buy back lower if top and bottom lines take a hit.

    But kudos to Teva for getting the 3 injection patent just under the wire. I'm assuming that is why the stock finally started to move. I'm not convinced that cheap insurance companies aren't going to twist themselves into a pretzel trying to force people on the generic. So it feels too risky for me.
    Mar 3 12:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The NASDAQ Really Overvalued? [View article]
    This is an excellent analysis. As a person who owns 2 of the "mature" companies I often found myself wondering how the heck NASDAQ has gotten back almost to 2000 levels.

    Well, it's clear the the bubble is there but is isolated to a certain kind of stock. These are stocks I'd never even look at because they don't pay dividends or they are priced on some metric that i hate (eyeballs, revenue growth without profits, etc).

    It's clear now the only reason the NASDAQ isn't insanely overvalued is that a lot of the big cap stocks in the index are actually UNDERvalued. If the mature big cap companies catch up to this overvaluation the NASDAQ will go to the moon...could make 7000 easy.
    Mar 2 11:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Outguns Intel [View article]
    I don't mean to simplify it too much but isn't this a natural result of Apple controlling everything from the sourcing of sand for the silicon all the way up the the final finished device?

    It seems to me like it would be a miracle if Intel could produce a chip that could keep up with that full ecosystem when running "real world" applications. i don't think that Intel can ever hope to win on a comparison between finished devices in a head-to-head with Apple.

    If they do it would certainly say good things about Intel and their partners and really bad things about Apple.
    Feb 28 10:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Economic Take-Off In 2014 Due To Lower Fiscal Drag? [View article]
    I mentioned how long financial panics last. But you can have the last word, I'm detecting some trollery.
    Feb 8 06:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Economic Take-Off In 2014 Due To Lower Fiscal Drag? [View article]
    The length of the Great Depression is very easy to check. I'll just say you're wrong.
    Feb 2 10:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Economic Take-Off In 2014 Due To Lower Fiscal Drag? [View article]
    We'll be looking for all kinds of reasons for why the economy turns when it does.

    I think the overriding factor, that is really simplistic and not very sexy to talk about, is that recessions caused by financial panics tend to last 7 to 10 years. It is the nature of the thing.

    So if 2014 is the year (about 7 years from the start of the crisis) we'll look to all kinds of reasons why but the actual reason will simply be that enough time has passed since 2008 and people are ready to stop being afraid.
    Feb 1 10:26 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Report: Intel to unveil Android/Windows hybrids, Microsoft/Google not on board [View news story]
    If I'm not mistaken Intel said months ago this is on the way. It's really just a question of when.

    Intel will probably roll its own version of Android along with a partner like Asus. While they're at it they should make sure the device can run Linux too. Then it can triple-boot into Windows, Android or Linux. That's a game changer right there.
    Jan 3 07:09 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Memo To Intel: Prepare For Weak Holiday Sales [View article]
    Win 8 isn't bad. There is just a completely embarrassing lack of apps that are optimized for Win 8.

    Maybe Intel should tale some of that billion dollars for promotions and have a suite of Win 8 apps written that will run on tablets.
    Dec 5 03:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Another Lie You Shouldn't Believe [View article]
    I've argued that Intel does not even need mobile chip revenue. They could do quite well feeding the legacy PC business and focusing on growth in the datacenter.

    However, Intel has always been very conscious of 'brand awareness'. This goes all the way back to their Intel Inside campaign. Personally I think Intel wants to be in mobile because that is where virtually all the buzz is. I don't think it is purely about the revenue and profits. In fact one could argue that an Intel big in mobile will have higher revenue but nearly every other financial metric will suffer.

    I don't know if their push into mobile makes sense. Their profit margins will suffer considerably and they're going to be taking on very lean competitors. They may be trying to replicate their PC success (brand awareness, premium prices) in a market that isn't worth winning (tablets, smartphones, etc). The cost, and effort, and time needed to make Intel Inside mean something on a smartphone may be a Pyrrhic victory (assuming, that is, they can even do it).
    Dec 3 12:40 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel TV Flop Is Huge For Investors [View article]
    On a selfish note i was hoping Intel would make this work. The cable companies make horrid menu interfaces. The problem with set top boxes, so far, is they don't integrate well into the cable systems so that it is a seamless experience. I was hoping that was what Intel was working on.

    I would have bought one...
    Nov 27 11:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Big Winner From Intel's Analyst Day? ARM Holdings [View article]
    I've argued that missing the mobile transition isn't that big a deal. Intel could afford to wait, see where the market was going and then start their processes to meet that market at some point. The chips are low margin chips and it wouldn't have made sense for Intel to be all over the place trying to figure out which tech was going to take off.

    It's pretty clear now where the trends are going. Bay Trail is step one in moving intel into the x86 tablet space. Fairly soon there will be a version of Android that will run on those chips as well. My suspicion is that what we'll have then is a 2 in 1 tablet that can run Win 8 or android. It will be, IMO, a game changer.

    But all of this is possible because Intel took its time and waited to see where the market was headed. And now they're using their in-house expertise to begin to clip off competitors at the knees. In 5 years we might be talking about the brilliant Intel strategy of letting all the competitors fight it out and then stepping in around late 2014 with tablets and smartphones that can do basically everything.

    As for the datacenter i think that is something to always be concerned about. Any business with enormous profit margins is going to be a huge target for competition. However, Intel has built a substantial moat around that business. Also, Intel has gone "all in" on its strategy of being both design and fab...I think that will pay off in terms of keeping the fabless operators at bay in their high margin business. Could I be wrong? Of course, but my bet is Intel will hold its lead and its business in the datacenter. i also think intel is going to surprise everyone at how strong they come into the mobile market sometime in 2014 and start to dominate sections of it by 2015.

    What does this all mean? The same thing it has meant for Intel for at least 10 years. Buy below 20, sell above 27 :) (Hint, i think we may get our below 20 moment in the not to distant future.)
    Nov 24 01:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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