Seeking Alpha


Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View montpellier's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Starbucks: A Segment Review [View article]
    Although it looks high I still think there is more upside (slow moving). The brand still looks strong in Europe even with more competition. When I see the shop logo it looks fresh after all this time. They really can turn themselves into a mini food location along with pushing the concessionary business. Producing machines for the home gives them a presence outside of work hours. This payment system is also interesting to follow and they must have a data history like google. Am still holding.
    Jun 5 05:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Under Armour lower after cautious earnings call [View news story]
    There was nothing of the sort on the conference call. More a case of shorting on news day. If those results at Q1are worthy of a 10% drop then the recent IPOs are in for trouble. UA is a good example of a company with little debt and has done it on strong cash flow. Kevin Plank came across well on the call and can't remember the CFO striking a cautionary note.
    Apr 24 11:09 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pan African - Gold Mine For Investors [View article]
    Interesting article drilling down into cash flow. This is a very well run gold miner that is now a mid-tier player in South Africa. Operationally they have delivered. The share price reached around 21p following news of the potential Evander deal but has fallen away since. You can't really say that the price reached silly heights and at present it is undervalued. At present they are mining predicted lower grades at the Evander mine and hope to get back to normal grades later in 2014 with 2015 bringing on the sought after higher grades that they are targeting at Evander.

    The Baberton Retreatment Plant has very low costs which is a game changer. With the Evander Retreatment Plant being recently given the go ahead (albeit at higher costs than Baberton), this will bring down the Evander mine costs. When Evander was purchased the tailings potential was well known.

    They need to sort out the platiunum side as they seem to have been caught out by poor supplies from International Ferro Metals and needed a clause in that contract to challenge this. It is a shame as the platiunum plant was delivered on time by the board. I see PAF as a potential merger target with another mid-tier player on the gold or platinum side. A falling gold price may actually bring them opportunities as PAF are virtually debt free and use internal cash for projects. The South African country has not helped PAF and this can be seen by the low London share volume.
    Apr 2 06:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Touch Alcoa [View article]
    Yes, best to look at the real drivers with ally. Power is the lead cost and this metal will move quicker than copper. The author's work might look good to the investment crowd but all this DCF and bell curves just get smashed out the water when AA is measured against companies who own little or no bauxite. AA has natural hedges. The others have a habit of Chapter 11.
    Mar 30 01:20 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lululemon Attempts Transformation From Yoga Apparel To Fast Fashion [View article]
    The new line is a natural fit and really it was sort of already there in the current collection. It is no different to Lacoste who will sell natural fabrics in a sporty style. Nike have always offered tech and non tech. LULU has a much higher price point but the North American crowd don't seem to have a problem with it. The analysts lack a knowledge of the fashion industry and every new report compares LULU with a different customer base. The latest is Urban Outfitters. The negative press has been overdone and the market share is for LULU to lose. The short position is a fantastic opportunity for the new CEO to announce a share buy back or dividend to snap that position.
    Mar 19 01:52 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Reasons Why Investors Should Sell Out Of Alcoa Shares Now [View article]
    The writer appears to not know that AA hold the value chain. They own bauxite mines whilst Global Brass Copper have to buy in copper cathodes. RSI could be looked at as fluffy investing. Aluminium is far greater than news on Ford. The US ecomony will be propped up for years so AA will rise in line. The metal waiting to rise is aluminium. Let's face it no central bank is going to upset any economy, the debt will be spread out over many years. You also have to understand the financing and contango games in metal warehousing. You could put money on Rusal and it would do just as well.

    I don't really see the point in popping in and out if you have a long-term view. Technical trading is totally different. If you are going to mention pure fabricators then remind the public about Chapter 11s.
    Feb 27 05:33 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time For Under Armour To Buy Lululemon? [View article]
    Was not aware of VFC but it does make you think how many big holding companies in the textile sector have appeared over recent times.
    Feb 22 09:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time For Under Armour To Buy Lululemon? [View article]
    The thing is LULU can go it alone. Look at the valuations of designer brands because that is really what it is. The negative news has been so hyped. UA has certainly done well in a short space of time. Whether LULU can replicate their sales in Europe will be interesting. Their model is very North American. $600m or thereabouts in cash and a 17% short position. If anything there us upside on those shorts and a share buyback (although cash is to be used for shop rollouts). I wouldn't disagree on a takeover but it would cost alot. Could fit into a LVMH or Kering portfolio as a sportswear designer brand.
    Feb 21 03:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Aluminum Will Drive Growth For Alcoa [View article]
    In agreement with you on aluminium and aluminium alloy going forward in industry. This has been growing for a number of years and the companies that hold the technology have a head start. Have met a number of small aluminium semi and finished products companies in Europe who have the technical skillset and these were small companies. It is this technology side that kept them above water in a struggling aluminium sector. AA is a long term opportunity to see a good return from the current share price. Thanks for the article.
    Jan 31 04:15 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analysis: Athleta is a real risk to Lululemon [View news story]
    LULU for me is a buy at this price. I do think it will roll all the way back up to $80. In the fitness market there is room for all. It is a growing market and alot of the gear can be worn outside of the gym. LULU is yet to take on Europe. The cash balance can fund further rollout. Just on a label side they have a few more years of growth. Then it might taper off.
    Jan 31 08:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lululemon - A Long-Term Investment Case? [View article]
    There is potential for LULU to become a much bigger operation. I can't see them being snapped up by another player. They seem to just have the showroom in London and the European side is untapped. I'm sure they are growing online in Europe but it is interesting that Australia was targeted first.

    The lifestyle/community in sport and fitness is a growth area. It gives more of a purpose to use social media if you participate. You want to catch that market coming out of their early 20's who come back to sport and fitness.
    Jan 26 09:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lululemon - A Long-Term Investment Case? [View article]
    Very helpful. Good luck.
    Jan 23 06:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lululemon - A Long-Term Investment Case? [View article]
    Thanks for the reply. I heard Tara on the net at a conference the other day and she seemed easy going. The CEO naturally has the experience but I do agree the founder of any company deserves all the credit for taking the risk; there is a big difference between running companies and actually starting one.

    These LULU girls are sporty anyway so not so much a weight loss game. I bought shares on the pant news but sold out too early. That was really down to being nervous about stock markets globally. However, happy to hang around as 2014 may start to look like a prop up job in US and UK.

    Looked around a bit on options on LULU and Alcoa. What premium do you pay on the options a little off current price? It is a minefield just trying to calculate my FX rate offered.

    Jan 22 04:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lululemon - A Long-Term Investment Case? [View article]
    A reply that is spot on. I have followed this company for a while since it started to get some press attention in the UK. Its strength is the brand incorporating a look that is ahead of Nike or Adidas. They have this North American knack of creating a community around a product and for me Christine Day was a real asset to LULU. Starbucks did the same over here making the customer part of the 'coffee shop' and even UK staff got the message.

    The look is fashionable but does not want to exclude any age group which is the real winner for me. They have an early 30 women's market that is interesting and no doubt this allows them to sell at much higher prices than the competition. LULU delivers a cutting edge technical garment that puts it in with the cycling or skiing crowd. What it does not do is give off a street wear image but offers a lifestyle, no matter how corny that can sound. So often sportswear sells out to the music industry which blurs their purpose. LULU is coffee, gym, coffee! The use of models gives off a different image to the competition. Wall St like the City of London kill a share on any bad news so the drop for me was not a concern. I do think it will come back and the girl brand Ivviva has potential. As you say the menswear line is growing. The comment from Chip Wilson was a clanger. The one thing you do in the fitness industry is to welcome all shapes and sizes.

    If you don't mind me asking what puts do you hold? I have gone long here on the fall as I did before after the pant fiasco.
    Jan 22 08:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Major Bottom In Aluminum Prices And Alcoa [View article]
    Interesting article and thanks for the time taken on the charting side. Alcoa is on my watch list and this year I have researched them along with Norsk and Rusal. The strength of Norsk with regard to the energy side has helped the shareprice to hold up. Alcoa have the technology and for me this will keep them ahead in the game. The advancement of aluminium alloys should see continuing orders on the auto and air industry side. Rusal have access to hydro plants in Siberia to keep energy costs low. Of all the base metals it is the most energy intensive but recycling helps. The LME warehousing has skewed things with the ridiculous amount of financing that went on against stored metal. There is still plenty to run down. Getting in on Alcoa early is ideal but these green shoots in the economy are probably further down the road than the banks would like us to think. If you have access to your own alumina then survival is pretty guaranteed. On the other hand if you sit in the middle as a smelter it can be difficult.
    Dec 11 05:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment