ehabob10

Analysts Keep Dumping On Dendreon, Despite The Math

As soon as Dendreon passed the committee the President sold most of the stock he actually owned (not options). Then on March 19th, Dendreon filed with the SEC to raise $200,000,000.00 at least 1/4 of which was going to be from additional stock sales. They also had, I believe, another PRIOR SEC registration to sell 20,000,000 additional shares. That means that the stock will be diluted by 25% (best) to 100% (probable) or even 200% (pessimistic). So, if the company is at fair value, the price needs to drop 20 to 66 percent because of the these new shares.

In addition, HUGE hedge funds have enormous short positions and lots of lobbyists. So, Provenge will not be approved until this stock drops below $4.50 maybe $3.00 even if they have to keep Provenge off the market until 2525. So, until the stock drops a lot, it is worthless (either now or later). Once it drops, if it happens soon, then Dendreon may be a buy, but not until.

Yes, I have some puts which are well in the money, but I would like to be long someday.