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atlasman

atlasman
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  • Northern Tier Energy Update: Looking Forward To A Nearly 10% Yield [View article]
    Which MLPs pay a steady 10-12% yield?
    Aug 5 11:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Omega Healthcare Investors: Staying Bullish As The Company Raises Its Dividend [View article]
    I am also a NC investor.

    The simple answer is that increased rates will increase their costs and lower their profits. They can raise their prices, but probably not enough to cover the costs.

    Here is the question for you, can the fed really raise rates? They will talk tough because they have to deal with "Expected Inflation". But can they raise rates. Go check out what 5 percent rates will do to the national debt
    Jul 18 12:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: Good Fortune Occurs When Preparation Meets Opportunity [View article]
    Thank you for the article, especially the link to the E&Y article.

    My only question is that I thought the value of pipeline companies like KMI is that they are a toll roads and not directly sensitive to commodity price fluctuations. Why is rising LNG prices good for KMI? Should we not invest based on the trend in the article on LNG providers?
    Jul 15 11:56 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Lower-Yielding Stocks Provide Better Long-Term Returns [View article]
    same comment as the rest. Great concept for an article but for the thesis to hold you need to run it across multiple bull and bear markets.

    With that said, I think you will find that stocks with the greatest dividend growth provide the best overall return on investment. This kind of aligns with your thesis since you need to start with a low dividend generally to get a great deal of growth. Figuring out which 2% dividends are going to growth their dividend by 10%/year vs 1%/year over the next five years is the trick isnt it.
    Jul 11 07:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pengrowth Energy: There Is No Need To Worry [View article]
    HFT. Either use it to add a few points to your gain by buying in the troughs and selling at the highs or ignore it completely and focus/profit on the big picture.
    Jul 9 11:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Properties' Current Dividend - Here To Stay? [View article]
    WOW, this is one of the best SA articles I have read in a while. Many thanks for the contribution.

    Your data aligns with my gut instinct that the dividend is safe. Honestly, the difference between 86% and 93% coverage is really small in dollar terms. There are lots of ways a company of this size can close that gap if they really cared. The real question in my mind is can they cover the dividend and grow the company without further dilution? My gut there is the answer is no but am in for the long term as the price is cheap (for a good reason as you describe), dividends are strong, and eventually the price ratios will normalize with their peers over the long term.

    - AM
    Jul 2 08:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ARCP May Have A Secret Sauce And It's Not Tartar Sauce [View article]
    tpcork -

    I appreciate the challenges. The 3 basic lines of my reasoning are as follows:

    1. It is my understanding that Darden dumped RL because it was bringing down their margins and thus hurting their valuation. I am working from memory so do your own DD (which clearly you do), but the actual business is profitable and is sustainable with some good old fashion US VC cost cutting and culling of the franchise heard.

    2. I also read somewhere that ARCP performed DD on each property and was able to pick from 700 sites the ones they wanted and ended up with a list of 500.

    3. Lastly, it is real estate that ARCP owns that can be flipped/sold to other similar businesses if the need arises.

    At the end of the day, you buy ARCP only because you trust their management team. I can certainly understand why many do not trust them and look elsewhere. I have enough confidence in them to invest 2-3% of my entire portfolio but not enough to back up the truck.

    With all of that said, you have 50+ more years of experience over me in commercial real estate so take my thoughts with a grain of salt.
    Jun 30 03:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ARCP May Have A Secret Sauce And It's Not Tartar Sauce [View article]
    I am comfortable with ARCP's strategy. I understand that in order to reach for additional growth and yield, one has to take some risk. The red lobster stores as a whole are not going to implode without a major economic event and the few that might only represent a tiny portion of ARCP's portfolio. Remember, ARCP got to pick and chose the restaurants they wanted, it was not an all or nothing proposition.
    Lastly, I also balance out my ARCO holdings with O for further diversification.

    Mt 2 cents.

    - AM
    Jun 30 10:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pengrowth Energy: Staying Bullish As 2P Valuations Nearly Double At Lindbergh [View article]
    What I dont get is the NAV increasing by $2.00 and the stock increasing by $.17. While I didn't expect the price to increase as much as the NAV, I did expect more than we got. I guess I got to buy a little more tomorrow.
    Jun 25 09:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What's The Magic That Moves ARCP? [View article]
    The real question for me is whether they can cover the dividend when all is said in done. If the answer is yes, our investment will appreciate. If the answer is no, the stock is doomed.
    Jun 5 08:35 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: Huge New $6.7 Million Insider Buy - And It's Not Kinder [View article]
    This is his investment philosophy:

    "We believe that long-term stock price appreciation is based on long-term earnings growth. Sustainable earnings growth is predicated on dominance in an attractive industry. Dominant businesses usually reside in large companies and can produce superior earnings growth and market leadership over long periods of time."

    Sounds pretty much like KMX to me.
    Jun 5 07:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is American Realty Capital Properties' 8% Dividend Yield Built To Last? [View article]
    Brad -

    There is nothing really more I can add after all of these comments other than another thank you for the post. I bought in this week with some remorse but hoping for the best. I must say these guys are going to offer an interesting ride. This is a nice REIT that I pair with the anti-ARCp, O.

    - AM
    Jun 1 10:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Properties: Bigger And Bigger, Cheaper And Cheaper [View article]
    Thank you for the article as it confirms my recent purchase of ARCP. My only concern with it is that the management team seams a bit over aggressive. I cannot complain about their results so far but it is something I am watching closely.

    Pair ARCP with O and you have yourself a nice start to a great REIT portfolio. Add in OHI and HCP from the medical REIT side and DLR in the technology REIT space and you have my core REIT holdings.

    - AM
    May 29 08:43 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: Insider Buying Isn't A Catalyst [View article]
    An owner of a small company in which I worked gave up 15% of his equity to the management team. Many thought he was a hero. The reality is the VC in which he was in discussion to sell the company felt the company would be worth 1.5x if the management was a part owner. The end result he gave up a little to make a little bit more (sorry, it has been a while so the numbers escape me). RK is in the same position. You buy because you think it will outperform, you sell because you think it will not. His little 100k means nothing.

    Long KMI, KMR
    May 13 11:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pengrowth Energy's (PGH) CEO Derek Evans on Q1 2014 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    I am with John, drip now and buy on lows. I believe it is going to go sideways over the next 3-6 months and either pop to the teens if the forecast/plans hold true or be a complete bust if they dont. I believe, but not enough to back up the truck.
    May 13 05:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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