alpha24seven

Global Oil Production Peaking: What Happens Now?

Well I'll agree with you it is about making money. It is so very exciting of a time now with nearly infinite opportunity.

What I will disagree with you on is peak oil proper. It is an academic exercise and won't ever happen. Why? The law of unintended consequences. The real problem with oil is not future reserves or amounts being pumped per day from established fields, it's about consolidation and security of said energy. Many of the initiatives today are about securing energy sources immediately with a by-product function of efficiencies. The move to wean ourselves off of foreign energy is the real driver here. Take for example hybrid technology. Hybrids are not lab based -- they operate in reality and will only get better. According to Toyota, Prius owners have saved over 300mm gallons of gasoline. Small in a macro sense but immediately deployable. Now consider plug in hybrids with a range of 40-60 electric miles. The "oil usage factor" converts to over 150mpg. Convert to an E85 hybrid and it becomes exponential. A standard 12 MPG SUV operating on E85 today has a 50MPG oil usage factor. These are interim technologies but they don't live in the lab either. Alls it takes is will and adoption which is coming very quickly not due to the threat of peak oil but do to the threat of disruption from foreign sources. Another exciting area is solar. Even without the new material science companies contributions to solar (nano, multi-junction, concentrator) if the efficiency plateaus at 20% but the price per installed watt goes to $2. then their will be an energy revolution never before seen. There will be a wave of adaptation to convert things to solar/electric which can have serious and immediate impact on the heating oil market and natgas market. This is without one new innovation. Simple reduction in price which is coming due to massive overcapacity in the solar industry -- 2008-2009.

The point is all these little things are a big thing. We are on the precipice of many BIG things that will rewrite the rules. We look at peak oil in terms of 20-40 years before the EROEI component (don't get me started on EROEI -- a completely flawed model) of peak oil were to rear its ugly head but we are delivering new technologies and systems on a weekly basis.

To me this is the mathematician paradox. Construct the problem but wait until processing power is inexpensive enough and powerful enough to solve the problem. Energy is the same. Much money to be made right now with solar, exploration, refining but be careful because the change to new paradigms will be vicious. As much money to be made short as long.