alpha24seven

Want Solar Panels? China Will Pick Up the Tab

Umm... Is it just me, or we wandering around a bit here. So China is going to subsidize solar, ok. Where are they going to subsidize solar? In China right? Ok, so why is everybody talking about how great this is for example -- New Mexico?

We currently have thousands (yes I said thousands) of manufacturing facilities shutting down in China right now. There will be thousands more. The scale of these PV arrays are made for these same manufacturing facilities that are shutting down in record numbers.

So what is the point here exactly? Do you really think the Chinese government is going to subsidize 60% of a solar PV array to go on top of a Whole Foods store in Los Angeles?

We need more clarity on this. One thing is for damned sure. The Chinese solars popped big on this news and we know the local Chinese government officials are the hand in the glove of many of the Chinese solars. They announce some wide eyed funding initiative with about 10% visibility and the stocks pop. Somebody should be investigating that. Maybe the Chinese have finally figured out how solars move -- by press release. Think about it. Some obscure Chinese government agency issues some fanciful PR talking about this and that and boom big money made in one day. Somebody should look at option activity and the relationships between the Chinese gov and these solars executives. This isn't passing the sniff test.

Solar: No Profit for Two Years

Well damned near every post form all the solars highs have been saying that solar will go hyperbolic. It didn't.

When ANY analyst projects a down leg or a weakening market due to the global economy or over supply, the commenter's go crazy and start machine gunning -- idiot! The same posters that said (insert your favorite solar here) will go straight to $200 before a split.

Guess what commenter's, the analysts have been right from the highs. And they are certainly right now. We keep hearing the "magical PPW threshold" that will cause it to fly off the shelfs because it is so cheap. This threshold per watt keeps going lower because when we hit the price, uptake doesn't kick in and then everybody screams "wait till it gets to .25 PPW"

There is serious carnage (more and worse) looming for the industry and many high flyer's will be toast. Solar will ultimately do very well. But even the top execs at these companies will tell you they need to hang on for five years. Then we will get it. Until then, wreckage.

The Broken Hedge Fund Model

This is a derivation on the same "kill the hedgies" argument making the rounds. I'm not sure you've ever seen an actual offer memorandum to invest in a hedge fund. The majority of the hedge funds out there have two very important items that you seem to have missed.

1) Hurdle. That means the manager must make a certain amount tied to a benchmark before the manager collects any fees. This is in addition to and not the same thing as high water.

2) Manager participation. The majority of most hedge funds will have very strong participation from the general partner, md, principal, etc. This means a very high percentage or a very large dollar amount of the managers personal net worth will be invested in the same fund and strategy.

The reason many managers are starting new funds is is simple. When an investor makes an investment in a hedge fund, the offer memorandum will describe in general terms what the strategy is. Perhaps merger arbitrage, long/short, commodities etc. There is a legal issue when the manager engages in "strategy creep" to chase new profitable strategies outside the offer. The manager then must either recalibrate with all investors -- or -- start a new fund to pursue the new strategy. It's much easier to start a new fund. The markets (especially these days) move at hyper velocity. The old strategies go and the new ones show up and you need to be able to take advantage of the current market, ergo you start new funds.

Hedge funds aren't black holes of information. What they have become is just another whipping boy and outlet for rage because of the financial mess we are in. Look closely at what has caused this and you will see it isn't the hedgies. It was the financial engineering from the banks re tier 3 assets. This is not the domain of hedge funds. In fact, many hedge funds have been screaming about this prior to it blowing up.

Obama's Green Obsession: More Harm Than Good?

It's funny to read these comments and all these "I need a sandwich" guys.

Let's throw billions at renewable energy and witness one of the largest corporate welfare gives ever.

1) Renewable energy is profitable. Read a frigging 10k/q for the solar guys. NO handout needed.

2) Renewable energy is an transitory system. Lets give millions (or was it billions) of jobs to a system that will displace them within 24 months. Nice planning. How many guys will it take to build and install windmills? How many guys and how long will it take to install solar panels when we have even one of the hundred breakthroughs these guys keep talking about? Energy density delivered will lower time and cost of install to a fraction of today's time.

Hire a million guys. Sixteen months later, one of these new gee whiz things hits and now we lay off 950,000 guys. Brilliant.

It's all politic speak. Combine hiring tons of people with the word green and even the dumbest guy could get laid.

And another thing for all you "Manhattan Project" types. Earth to dreamers -- Earth to dreamers, WE ALREADY HAVE A MANHATTAN PROJECT! It's been going on for three years and take one look at private capital through the venture capital community deployed. Incredible numbers. Never trust anyone that says we need another "Manhattan Project" They clearly are behind the curve.

All Obama and his people need to do is remove the incentives. The renewable companies will then be forced to compete and the price will plummet per installed watt. Then and only then will the much vaunted green revolution arrive.

Get with the picture people...

5 Reasons Why the $700B Bailout Could Translate to $250 Oil

My God! Why do people posit such nonsense.

Peak Oil is a scam.

Demand destruction is permanent.

21st Century energy technology is COMING!

China and India demand is a complete distortion.

To base a thesis on ill founded trading theory and outlier trading days signifies someone not steeped in the market being commented on.

Really terrible... $250 ppbl... c'mon...

Bring Back the Uptick Rule

Bring back the uptick rule...

Yep that will do it. Everybody happy shiny again....

Lol...

5 Stocks to Buy if Obama Wins

Obama has an abysmal voting record for renewables. Witness his "missing votes" for the current problem with the Fed tax credits. Shameful.

Moreover, you do realize he has taken more money from the nuclear energy industry than nay other politician -- ever, and Illinois has more nuclear power plants than any other US State. I think you listed GE for the wrong reasons...

LDK Solar: A New Business Model

Q. Why hasn't Wall Street reacted to LDK.

A. I suspect it is due to the fact that LDK is a very new kid on the block, and not well covered in the US publications.

Huh???? How about all the media coverage it got back last year? TONS of coverage but all the wrong kind...

IAM PHREE... cute. That implies a value of zero.

Forget $100 a Barrel - Oil Will Plummet to $30

Bada Boom.... another drubbing again today. Supposedly this is impossible due to China + India + Peak Oil + Bush + Cheney + Iraq + (insert conspiracy du jour here)

Lol...

Forget $100 a Barrel - Oil Will Plummet to $30

"Also, transporter system developers were recently dealt a blow when it was discovered that existing matter-to-energy-to-ma... conversion processes are unable to address changes in angular momentum that result when source-destination deltas from the mean gravitational core are as little as a few angstroms apart, resulting in the transported object or person being hurled into outer space."

Or you come out the other end with your pants on your head. This is now a necessity. I never trusted that damned thing anyways...

With Help from California, Solar Gets Fired Up

Nacho or gaucho whatever... Sell your brand of crazy somewhere else. I heard your public library is having a secret Bilderberg meeting tonight at 7 PM sharp. You'd better be there on time before the the rest of the "enlightened" drink all the free coffee and horde the free donuts...

lol... seriously...

And BTW. The CA solar plan ($3.2bn) takes money every month directly from the disadvantaged and poor to pay for overpriced PV systems for rich homeowners. Fact. And that part isn't lol.

Recapping My Great Calls on Oil

Peak oil... More of that?

I really like the $500 ppb 2014 schtick...

lol...

Eye on Currency Impact and ETFs

Hey "Mr Germany" So which hedge fund/PE fund with $billions AUM (sorry Deutsche Marks, because the Germans are "tired" of the Euro) did you say you run again? I mean with your level of technical expertise in all things market and you incredible investing record -- the "pikers" must be throwing money at you to run, right?

lol...

Monday Options Update: XLF, XLE, FRE, FMD, HPQ, XOM, STM, ZMH

@Frankfurt/Hessen

"For those uninformed,Interactive Brokers Group is soon to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection"

Proof. Please tell us all in detail immediately. Post links to documentation and to verifiable information. Opinion doesn't count.

Magazine Covers as Contrarian Indicators

"Whats Not"

Private Jets.

Says who? Look at the premium you need to jump to the front of the delivery line for any number of small to medium size private jets. The only place I know of taking immediate deposits are on some of the larger planes like the Falcon 7x and the Global Express. The G650 is dear but can be found. Maybe the fractionals are slowing but people still want the private jet.