alpha24seven

Want Solar Panels? China Will Pick Up the Tab

Umm... Is it just me, or we wandering around a bit here. So China is going to subsidize solar, ok. Where are they going to subsidize solar? In China right? Ok, so why is everybody talking about how great this is for example -- New Mexico?

We currently have thousands (yes I said thousands) of manufacturing facilities shutting down in China right now. There will be thousands more. The scale of these PV arrays are made for these same manufacturing facilities that are shutting down in record numbers.

So what is the point here exactly? Do you really think the Chinese government is going to subsidize 60% of a solar PV array to go on top of a Whole Foods store in Los Angeles?

We need more clarity on this. One thing is for damned sure. The Chinese solars popped big on this news and we know the local Chinese government officials are the hand in the glove of many of the Chinese solars. They announce some wide eyed funding initiative with about 10% visibility and the stocks pop. Somebody should be investigating that. Maybe the Chinese have finally figured out how solars move -- by press release. Think about it. Some obscure Chinese government agency issues some fanciful PR talking about this and that and boom big money made in one day. Somebody should look at option activity and the relationships between the Chinese gov and these solars executives. This isn't passing the sniff test.

Solar ETFs Will Follow the Sun

Right, but nobody trusts the LDK accounting, leadership, guidance etc. I wouldn't use them as a benchmark to anything solar.

Solar Shorts Keep On Rising Even As Oil Surprises

Don't short solars on hope/hype/oil or any of that. Short solars on their exposure and complete reliance on subsidy. The subsidies are faltering around the world and if they crack further, solar will be beat into oblivion. That is a good thing because only after the artificial high priced PV environment will plummet and -- finally -- we can get on with the energy revolution. It's called solar 2.0.

Is There Value in Silicon Solar PV?

Another thing. There is a coal mine canary named Nanosolar. Watch them carefully. If -- and I say if they can do what they say than all Si based solar will be killed -- dead...

The only thing to do is see if you can get borrows on the entire Si PV basket.

Completely crushed. But then again, so will a whole slew of other technologies like coal and natgas etc. Far and wide reaching destruction at the hands of just this one company.

Is There Value in Silicon Solar PV?

Much discussion about analysts. What you should probably know about analysts that most believe the best analysts won't ever be heard. Why? because they all work for hedge funds and hedgies don't broadcast research. There is no way the smart analysts can repel the massive money and better life a hedge fund will provide for them. The best proxy you can use is short interest. If there is big short interest and the pps has been beaten that is probably a result of the best analysts money can buy. Relying on stock analysis by some junior analyst from a known firm (even GS) or guys on SA will get you killed.

Polysilicon-Based PV Manufacturers: Clarifying the Financial Issues

@rana

You said to me "GLOBAL PRODUCTION IN MW AGAINST THE TOTAL SUBSIDY MONEY" Then you went on to say that I should read the WFR 10k to get the numbers. And a whole bunch of ranty nonsensical sleepwalking stuff...

1) If your rely on the companies own 10k/q for the larger market picture you will go broke.

2) There are plenty of credible research reports stating that the global production in MW of solar will far outstrip the available monetary subsidy. Use Google.

3) The price of oil re solar is no more than psychological. As a vehicle to correlate to solar having extreme marketplace value is a canard. Oil doesn't produce electricity, yet the cost to produce, distribute and install solar assets is greatly influenced (negatively) by the high price of oil. In fact, the high price of oil has a real world tangible damaging effect on the solar industry. Do you think solar is more cost effective to produce and ship around the world for installation at $50 ppbl or at $150 ppbl? I think you know the answer to that.

I don't understand why people need to get so mouthy when the incredible gift of Google is available. The fact that people represent themselves as solar investors without even understanding the industry at the highest levels is beyond me. If you try and make investments thinking your particular company is the dog and not the tail then you are doomed.

And lets not forget to mention the direct oversupply...
www.greentechmedia.com...

Polysilicon-Based PV Manufacturers: Clarifying the Financial Issues

To all you that were questioning my commentary on the industry being over built. Let me clarify.

1) It isn't about opportunity.

2) It isn't about the "promise" of solar.

3) It isn't about interest.

What it -is- about is the total global production in MW against the total global subsidy money. The industry will produce approx 40% more product for the entire global market than there are subsidies to pay for it. This has been known for months. Solar does NOT sell anywhere without a subsidy. The fact that we will have MWs of production with no buyers will prick the solar bubble.

For example.

www.bloomberg.com/apps...

A Look at Four Polysilicon-Based PV Manufacturers' Funding

It's really funny how when somebody does some thoughtful analysis (whether you agree or not is up to you) but it draws out all the venomous "investors" saying stuff like "you must be a short".

Well folks, if he is right, and I think he is for the record, then why wouldn't YOU be a short?

The really interesting thing that these articles bring out is the lack of rationality and sophistication of supposed investors. He's not attacking China. He's not not attacking Solar. He's simply showing certain and potentially fatal weakness in these companies. No more no less.

Polysilicon-Based PV Manufacturers: Clarifying the Financial Issues

It's pretty obvious by the hot comments coming from people long these companies that you/they are distinctly worried about implosion.

@Jack -- broaden your base of prepayment and what these contracts actually look like (Take or pay at what %, narrow delivery, forward sales base etc) and you will have a much more clear picture. And by the way -- not so good...

Another thing. All you people thinking in singular dimension, look at total authorized subsidy against MW production and the brutally honest fact is this industry is over produced. This will cause price collapse in panels through the chain, margin compression will hurt PPS and YES some of these companies are headed straight for the scrap heap. I've done research on the numbers. Don't get smarmy and ask for numbers. Get your own.

Polysilicon-Based PV Manufacturers: Clarifying the Financial Issues

Good piece. This solar industry is amazing because of the people that it attracts. Whenever something factual that shows weakness in the industry is brought up, the anti Bush, oil, Iraq (add your favorite here) show up to go completely ballistic. Get a grip people...

You are correct. There WILL be major carnage in this space with several high flying companies imploding. Everybody knows this industry will really take off in five years as the technology matures and the subsidies completely disappear. We will have product priced per watt under coal/nuclear (with decom costs) and this baby will fly. The companies built upon rigid financial models that require subsidy to be profitable will end hastily. Fact.

The 'Problem' With Solar Companies is Not Really a Problem

Well you presented the "problem" without even knowing it. The entire solar industry is predicated with success using subsidies. When these companies start flashing big numbers in their 10k/q then the subsidies will end -- hard.

Ever see a heroin junky go clean? Not pretty...

US Energy Bill: Solar Stocks Will Feel All the Heat

This piece is quite accurate. The solars will all get pounded but not before the "blow off top" which I would bet is what we are seeing here.

The irony is that what is left of the solar industry will be much stronger and be able to carry us to where we need to be. Of course much pain and lamenting until then. Ultimately the solar (surviving) companies will by then have learned how to function without subsidies which is in fact the real reason the solar industry has not been able to deliver a true consumer product. Subsidies are just like crack cocaine to this industry and breaking the addiction will be ugly. We are about to see it.

You don't recommend shorting any of these names but I sure as hell will. I know this industry very well and some serious shorting is in order to reel some of these cowboys in. Hint: Solar companies are not necessarily your friend...

And to Iconoclast421. You seriously have no idea how this industry works. It is clearly evident in your myopic, acerbic and distorted view of the solar industry viewed through the lens of the incredible (nearly Disney like proportions) projections on how this industry has 200 years of backlog and 3,000% yoy growth. It simply isn't true. When people like you are forced to deal with the economic realities of the solar industry, it is a quick and unintelligent leap over to the "if only George Bush were able to pull his ass out of the Bible and put down that liquor bottle. But not before he calls his Middle Eastern buddies to sell of a big chunk of America" preposterous camp.

Good piece. It is great to know others see the forest for the trees.

Signed, many year solar industry veteran.

Shadow Cast Over Solar Stocks

"could be a negative impact on solar-wafer producer MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR), pointing out that its largest customer, Suntech (STP), is “increasingly exposed” to the U.S. solar market."

All solar is exposed to the US market. It is fungible as we've seen in the last rush to ship all domestic product to Germany during their rush to subsidize. This is a fluid global market and their is no safe havens from market turn downs.