alpha24seven

Want Solar Panels? China Will Pick Up the Tab

Umm... Is it just me, or we wandering around a bit here. So China is going to subsidize solar, ok. Where are they going to subsidize solar? In China right? Ok, so why is everybody talking about how great this is for example -- New Mexico?

We currently have thousands (yes I said thousands) of manufacturing facilities shutting down in China right now. There will be thousands more. The scale of these PV arrays are made for these same manufacturing facilities that are shutting down in record numbers.

So what is the point here exactly? Do you really think the Chinese government is going to subsidize 60% of a solar PV array to go on top of a Whole Foods store in Los Angeles?

We need more clarity on this. One thing is for damned sure. The Chinese solars popped big on this news and we know the local Chinese government officials are the hand in the glove of many of the Chinese solars. They announce some wide eyed funding initiative with about 10% visibility and the stocks pop. Somebody should be investigating that. Maybe the Chinese have finally figured out how solars move -- by press release. Think about it. Some obscure Chinese government agency issues some fanciful PR talking about this and that and boom big money made in one day. Somebody should look at option activity and the relationships between the Chinese gov and these solars executives. This isn't passing the sniff test.

With Help from California, Solar Gets Fired Up

Nacho or gaucho whatever... Sell your brand of crazy somewhere else. I heard your public library is having a secret Bilderberg meeting tonight at 7 PM sharp. You'd better be there on time before the the rest of the "enlightened" drink all the free coffee and horde the free donuts...

lol... seriously...

And BTW. The CA solar plan ($3.2bn) takes money every month directly from the disadvantaged and poor to pay for overpriced PV systems for rich homeowners. Fact. And that part isn't lol.

Game Changer in Solar Energy: PG&E Inks Deal

@ Doug Korthof Excellent observation lost on many.

Another thing that is never talked about. Instead of making your entire home solar powered, you could buy a solar powered device that either heats/cools or both. This way on extremely hot or cold days, this home based system in aggregate would shave peak demand. If it heats, it could really damage the price of heating oil in say the North East.

The other beauty to this is that it should be MUCH less expensive than an entire home PV installation.

Game Changer in Solar Energy: PG&E Inks Deal

Don't count your chickens. This entire deal is predicated on extension of the Fed tax credits. They've tried eight times to get it through with no success and there is absolutely ZERO/NO guarantee it will pass.

All these analysts/company people who casually announce "we expect it to pass in early..." as though it is a forgone conclusion. Right....

If it doesn't pass -- look out below!

Solar Shorts Keep On Rising Even As Oil Surprises

Don't short solars on hope/hype/oil or any of that. Short solars on their exposure and complete reliance on subsidy. The subsidies are faltering around the world and if they crack further, solar will be beat into oblivion. That is a good thing because only after the artificial high priced PV environment will plummet and -- finally -- we can get on with the energy revolution. It's called solar 2.0.

Is There Value in Silicon Solar PV?

Another thing. There is a coal mine canary named Nanosolar. Watch them carefully. If -- and I say if they can do what they say than all Si based solar will be killed -- dead...

The only thing to do is see if you can get borrows on the entire Si PV basket.

Completely crushed. But then again, so will a whole slew of other technologies like coal and natgas etc. Far and wide reaching destruction at the hands of just this one company.

Is There Value in Silicon Solar PV?

Much discussion about analysts. What you should probably know about analysts that most believe the best analysts won't ever be heard. Why? because they all work for hedge funds and hedgies don't broadcast research. There is no way the smart analysts can repel the massive money and better life a hedge fund will provide for them. The best proxy you can use is short interest. If there is big short interest and the pps has been beaten that is probably a result of the best analysts money can buy. Relying on stock analysis by some junior analyst from a known firm (even GS) or guys on SA will get you killed.

Polysilicon-Based PV Manufacturers: Clarifying the Financial Issues

@rana

You said to me "GLOBAL PRODUCTION IN MW AGAINST THE TOTAL SUBSIDY MONEY" Then you went on to say that I should read the WFR 10k to get the numbers. And a whole bunch of ranty nonsensical sleepwalking stuff...

1) If your rely on the companies own 10k/q for the larger market picture you will go broke.

2) There are plenty of credible research reports stating that the global production in MW of solar will far outstrip the available monetary subsidy. Use Google.

3) The price of oil re solar is no more than psychological. As a vehicle to correlate to solar having extreme marketplace value is a canard. Oil doesn't produce electricity, yet the cost to produce, distribute and install solar assets is greatly influenced (negatively) by the high price of oil. In fact, the high price of oil has a real world tangible damaging effect on the solar industry. Do you think solar is more cost effective to produce and ship around the world for installation at $50 ppbl or at $150 ppbl? I think you know the answer to that.

I don't understand why people need to get so mouthy when the incredible gift of Google is available. The fact that people represent themselves as solar investors without even understanding the industry at the highest levels is beyond me. If you try and make investments thinking your particular company is the dog and not the tail then you are doomed.

And lets not forget to mention the direct oversupply...
www.greentechmedia.com...

Polysilicon-Based PV Manufacturers: Clarifying the Financial Issues

To all you that were questioning my commentary on the industry being over built. Let me clarify.

1) It isn't about opportunity.

2) It isn't about the "promise" of solar.

3) It isn't about interest.

What it -is- about is the total global production in MW against the total global subsidy money. The industry will produce approx 40% more product for the entire global market than there are subsidies to pay for it. This has been known for months. Solar does NOT sell anywhere without a subsidy. The fact that we will have MWs of production with no buyers will prick the solar bubble.

For example.

www.bloomberg.com/apps...

Polysilicon-Based PV Manufacturers: Clarifying the Financial Issues

It's pretty obvious by the hot comments coming from people long these companies that you/they are distinctly worried about implosion.

@Jack -- broaden your base of prepayment and what these contracts actually look like (Take or pay at what %, narrow delivery, forward sales base etc) and you will have a much more clear picture. And by the way -- not so good...

Another thing. All you people thinking in singular dimension, look at total authorized subsidy against MW production and the brutally honest fact is this industry is over produced. This will cause price collapse in panels through the chain, margin compression will hurt PPS and YES some of these companies are headed straight for the scrap heap. I've done research on the numbers. Don't get smarmy and ask for numbers. Get your own.

Polysilicon-Based PV Manufacturers: Clarifying the Financial Issues

Good piece. This solar industry is amazing because of the people that it attracts. Whenever something factual that shows weakness in the industry is brought up, the anti Bush, oil, Iraq (add your favorite here) show up to go completely ballistic. Get a grip people...

You are correct. There WILL be major carnage in this space with several high flying companies imploding. Everybody knows this industry will really take off in five years as the technology matures and the subsidies completely disappear. We will have product priced per watt under coal/nuclear (with decom costs) and this baby will fly. The companies built upon rigid financial models that require subsidy to be profitable will end hastily. Fact.

Contradictions in the Solar Market

There will be a huge oversupply of everything from Si to finished panels. It is a fact. The "huge demand" someone above mentioned is predicated upon a government subsidy somewhere. Problem is the subsidies will only subsidize a portion of total output. The global subsidy spend is flat contrary to what the media and this industry would have you believe. There is not a new Germany out there to absorb the massive new flow of product. Solar is far too expensive to sell without a subsidy. So what of the excess product? Glut leads to margin compression leads to share collapse leads to company failures leads to no interest in external funding. Solar has always been boom and bust. This time it's the mother of all busts.

A few other considerations. Solar 2.0 (I termed that phrase) will include new technologies such as Nanosolar and other innovations that aren't that far off. They will orphan both Si and thin film and makes us say "remember those big ugly panels". Not today but not ten years from now either.

When Will Grid Parity Come?

It won't come from the current Si based solar industry. The future is in solar 2.0. That is the companies like Nanosolar et al.

One item that people tend to miss. The price can and should be lower for solar today. It is kept artificially high to insure that there is no disruption in subsidies. This is a fact that every solar insider knows to be true. They will defend the subsidy with extreme prejudice. To break this paradigm, it will have to come from external sources when they bring new technologies not needing a subsidy. This will happen quickly once the politicians realize a particular technology is much less expensive and shipping. The subsidies then will be a sticky political situation and be quickly shelved leaving the entire current Si based solar industry massively exposed. It's happening already. Witness the recent lack of support for the tax subsidies in the energy bill. Only the beginning and with companies like Nanosolar shipping product to industrial MW level partners -- the writing is on the wall.

Profit Taking Could Dim Solar Plays

And I'll add.

1) Overcapacity and slacking demand. The overall ouput in MW's far exceeds all global subsidies by at least 50% going forward. Solar never sells without a subsidy. Who will pay for it? And YES demand is slacking. For example, Germany is soft and the California program is struggling. Subsidies are slipping as in Germany where they are starting to favor wind and witness the latest lack of support for solar in the US energy bill.

2) The housing debacle. The residential solar market is terrible. Who puts a +$20k (after subsidy) solar array on a home losing value? This is putting pressure on the commercial side to absorb the excess and it isn't happening -- yet. And this just isn't the US. Spain is in a tailspin and England is knocking on the door.

3) Recession. If we have one it will definitely impact solar sales. No question. It is not immune by any stretch of means. Many say we are already in recession.

Forget all the multi year projections from the solar industry. Recognize what is happening at the street level today.

Why LDK Beats First Solar

Because you referenced Mark Anthony and his never ending (and completely wrong) "unobtanium Jihad" -- I quit reading.

Try again.