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hjtheuns

hjtheuns
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  • Requiem For Fallen Dividend Aristocrats [View article]
    Eric – Thanks for the follow-up article. I enjoyed both articles and found them informative and thought provoking. I was impressed with how quickly you were able to research, prepare and publish the follow-up. If I may, I would like to suggest a third article for this series that would complete the picture. How did the 36 Dividend Aristocrats that remained on the list perform against the broader market since October 2008? I suspect that most of them outperformed and that many did so significantly. If that is true, then even the most ardent buy and hold DGI would have done well provided they were adequately diversified across sectors within the Dividend Aristocrats.
    Mar 30, 2014. 07:10 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rising Risks For Dividend Growth Investors [View article]
    DVK - I have seen references to Dividend Aristocrats going back to 1989 when there was 26 companies on the list. I am definitely looking forward to your article and hope you can determine which removals are attributable to mergers, acquisitions, spin-offs, changes for inclusion, not raising and reducing the dividend. I believe that S&P would provide a distinguished author like yourself official reasons for removals and a history of the term and the index.
    Mar 29, 2014. 09:33 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rising Risks For Dividend Growth Investors [View article]
    DVK – This is what I have found looking into this today. I’ll look forward to your article.

    In 2013 PBI was removed.
    In 2012 CTL was removed.
    In 2011 LLY, SVU and TEG were removed.
    In 2010 AVY, BBT, GCI, GE, JCI, LM, MTB, PFE, STT and USB were removed.
    In 2009 BUD, BAC, CMA, FITB, KEY, NUE, PGR, RF and WWY were removed.

    This information is not official from S&P but comes from articles identified in a google search for dividend aristocrats list 20XX. I didn’t find any information about removals from the DA list for 2008 and prior.
    Mar 29, 2014. 07:59 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rising Risks For Dividend Growth Investors [View article]
    Eric – Your comment about 14 companies being removed from the Dividend Aristocrat (DA) list since 2010 peaked my interest. I suspect that some of these companies were removed because of takeovers or changes in the rules to be on the list. I have been unable to find lists of the DAs by year going back to initiation which I believe was the early 1980s from a cursory search. It would be interesting to calculate the removal rates for failure to increase the dividend and for reducing the dividend. Anyone know of a data source for this analysis? Perhaps David Fish has some insight for his Champions.
    Mar 29, 2014. 02:45 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Financial Crisis Is Over For Wells Fargo Dividend Investors [View article]
    We could argue for ever if the government, the banks or the individuals assuming the debt were more responsible for the crisis. The one thing we know for sure is that the banks were the one’s making the money which is why they are the ones paying the fines. Banks will continue to make money and provide an essential service to the economy. Banks have been and will be sound and profitable investments.
    Mar 29, 2014. 01:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Financial Crisis Is Over For Wells Fargo Dividend Investors [View article]
    I agree that WFC is an attractive money center bank and I have been adding shares for the past six months. I also like BBT as a superior regional bank. Both of these banks are conservatively managed, have bright prospects and are reasonably priced. Financial stocks, and banks in particular, are seen as being good investments in a rising rate environment. For this to be true, the yield curve needs to steepen. This is not certain with the FOMC interfering with market forces.
    Mar 29, 2014. 12:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rising Risks For Dividend Growth Investors [View article]
    Thanks for your article. It makes some very interesting points and I agree with your assessment that many DGI stocks are disproportionately overvalued. While stocks can remain overvalued for a long time, even reaching outrageous valuations, a prudent investor should be cautious at this time. IMO investors that are not currently exercising caution and believe that their DGI stocks will rise indefinitely or will only experience a minor correction are being blinded by greed and are inexperienced. I feel empathy for them because selling an outstanding company is a difficult decision. Using the first stock highlighted in the article, VFC, as an example I certainly would not advise initiating or adding to a position. But what should an investor do if they are sitting on a 300% capital gain and have a YOC of over 7%? That is a difficult question to answer and is complicated by individual circumstances. If you bought VFC hoping for price appreciation, do not require the substantial income and have offsetting loses to allay the tax consequences then it would be hard to argue against taking profit. Conversely, the dividend income VFC is now providing and the increasing income it is very likely to provide in the future, would be next to impossible to replace if sold and capital gains taxes paid. Recommending a sound company trading at 10 times earnings is easy, but when the company trades at 20 times earnings there is no easy recommendation, other than not to buy.
    Mar 29, 2014. 12:07 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lean In To Closing The Retirement Gender Gap [View article]
    I thought it was all the shoes my wife buys :-)
    Mar 6, 2014. 07:02 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Mills Still Has A Lot To Offer [View article]
    If you look at a comparison chart of GIS to GSPC (S&P500) over a longer time frame, say 10 years, it will show significant outperformance by GIS (116.8% vs. 61.16%). The charts shown in the article don't include a bear market when GIS tends to shine. I thought the article was great, I just wanted to make this clarification point.
    Feb 27, 2014. 03:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deere Chooses Not To Raise The Dividend; What's Next? [View article]
    A buyer of DE today is likely doing so for the attractive valuation not the present or near term income. DE is an excellent company which will produce significant income over their business cycle, but an investor should have a long-term view with some patience.
    Feb 26, 2014. 07:29 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nike: A Great Stock But Slightly Overvalued [View article]
    I agree that NKE is somewhat over valued and is not at a great entry price. I would not be a seller of existing shares because I see the downside limited to about 10% and not worth the risk of being out of this great company and the significant dividend increases. This is a company you want to own for a very long time. I would be a buyer at $70 and a aggressive buyer if fortunate enough to see $65 again.
    Feb 23, 2014. 11:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ross Stores: A Great Growth Stock With At Least 20% Upside [View article]
    I'm also long ROST and added to my position last week. The dividend increase is late as they had been declaring the increase on the fourth Wednesday in January. I'm assuming that they will announce an increase along with earnings on the 27th of February. Can we dare hope for another 20%+ increase in the dividend?
    Feb 12, 2014. 08:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Electric: $30+ Price Target In Play... Here's Why [View article]
    Orders are placed through a contract that details the terms which include termination costs. The buyer can terminate but GE receives compensation, the terms of which are product and case specific. Historically, about half of the back orders are for jet engines which are typically very secure orders and are ordered years in advance.
    Feb 6, 2014. 08:40 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Electric: $30+ Price Target In Play... Here's Why [View article]
    It was somewhat eerie for me to read your analysis because it so closely matches why I decided to add to my GE position yesterday at $24.36. The huge amount of back orders, the promising and growing industrial businesses, the spin-off of portions of the capital businesses and a 3.6% yield make GE an attractive long-term investment at this time.
    Feb 6, 2014. 06:41 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Procter & Gamble: A Dividend Growth Champ Now On Sale [View article]
    I agree that PG is a core DGI holding and is becoming attractively valued. I would also like to point out that the PG dividend increase is declared in mid April, not in the "next few weeks" as the article indicates.
    Feb 4, 2014. 07:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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