Seeking Alpha

hjtheuns

hjtheuns
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View hjtheuns' Comments BY TICKER:
ABT, AFL, CAG, CAT, CBRL, CL, COP, CVS, CVX, DE, GE, GIS, HAS, HDV, IBM, KMB, KO, KRFT, LEG, MCD, MDT, MKC, MRK, NKE, PFE, PG, PM, PSX, RAH, ROST, SPY, SYY, T, TEI, TGH, TIP, VFC, WAG, WFC, WMT, XOM
Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • Lean In To Closing The Retirement Gender Gap [View article]
    I thought it was all the shoes my wife buys :-)
    Mar 6 07:02 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's - Fair Valuation As Minimum Wage Debate Could Create Worries [View article]
    I don't think that a minimum wage job was ever intended to provide a living for someone, let alone the family of four that is frequently referenced. If an adult only wants to compete with a teenager with no experience they need to take a long hard look at themselves. The argument that raising the minimum wage to $15 helps the economy is simply political nonsense. Why don't we just give everyone a million dollars? Mandating a wage far above what the market values is an encouragement to not develop skills and restricts ambition. To argue that its good for the rich totally misses the point of how it entraps the poor. The path to success is to get a job and work as hard as you can to get a better job. If you told your grandchildren that they didn't need to try hard because you would provide for them, how successful could you expect them to be?
    Jan 12 03:15 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's - Fair Valuation As Minimum Wage Debate Could Create Worries [View article]
    A little common sense goes a long way. The mean individual salary in the US today is approximately $50,000 with 68% earning between $22,000 and $120,000 (one standard deviation on each side of the mean; a reasonable definition of the middle class), with 16% making less than $22,000 (more than one standard deviation below the mean; a reasonable definition of lower class) and 16% making more than $120,000 (more than one standard deviation above the mean; a reasonable definition of upper class). Looking at the data for the past 50 years this basic definitional distribution (wages normalized for inflation) has not changed despite spending $16,000,000,000 on the war on poverty. In fact, there is evidence that suggests that welfare (income redistribution) entraps a significant number of families into poverty for generations.
    Jan 12 10:30 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Beating The S&P 500 Is Irrelevant To Me [View article]
    David – I don’t bother measuring performance against a benchmark because I don’t know of one that would be meaningful. By this I mean that if you have a basket of the typical dividend growth stocks that you have made timely purchases of over the past few decades then you almost certainly have a significant percentage of them that are yielding on cost in excess of 20%. After decades of being a dividend growth investor it is almost impossible to under perform the annual S&P500 total return benchmark.
    Oct 22 02:53 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Common Sense Strategies For Mitigating Risk In Your Retirement Portfolios: Part 2 [View article]
    Agbug - Your question concerning HD is difficult to address without knowing more of your individual circumstances. Generally speaking I would not recommend starting a new position or adding to an existing position at current valuations. Personally, I am not selling my position because of the associated tax bill as I purchased my shares in the mid 1980s. For me, HD is one of the stocks my kids will have to decide on with their stepped-up cost basis. A younger person may want to take some money off the table, but I believe HD will continue to perform well and distribute more of it's earnings through dividends going forward.
    Sep 7 11:50 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Let Fear Or Greed Influence Your Portfolio Management. [View article]
    The 3% dividend yield point ($37.33) for KO is an attractive buy. Depending on the amount of the dividend incease in WAG (expected to be declared on 7/10) a 3% yield represents a price in the low $40s. A 10% increase, to a $1.21, would make $41.33 an attractive price. A 15% increase, to $1.26, would make $42 a good purchase point.
    Jun 27 07:43 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Own These World's Leading Brands And Never Fear A Recession Again [View article]
    “I believe that each of these leading brand companies are worthy of investing in, however, only when they can be purchased at sound valuations. Unfortunately, I believe that 6 of these 11 companies are currently too pricey to buy today (purple highlights on graph). On the other hand, I feel that only Nike (NKE) is so overvalued that it should be sold.”

    Chuck - Thank you for another great article and the great value you add to SA. Your comment above touches on an issue that, for me at least, is one that is difficult for investors. When is it prudent to sell a stock? There are times when a stock appears inexpensive (earnings yield well below 6%) and there are times when a stock becomes expensive (earnings yield well above 6%).

    Deciding to purchase a stock is relatively straightforward. Funds are available, the price represents value and the company’s prospects are strong going forward. The sell-side decision has additional complications. Tax rate on capital gains and replacing the dividend yield must be considered.

    If an investor make a good decision to purchase NKE at approximately $20 back in March 2009 with an annual dividend of $0.50 and continues to hold it today with a price close to $65 and an annual dividend of $0.84 is it clear that the position should now be sold? With a capital gains tax rate of 23.8% an alternative investment must have a high probably of appreciating 25% more than NKE going forward. Replacing the 4.2% yield on cost also needs to be considered and is further complicated by the likelihood that NKE will be increasing their dividend at an above market pace.

    From the 11 stocks compared, would it be wise to sell NKE (highest earnings yield) and buy IBM (lowest earnings yield) today? I don’t know the answer and would be interested in your thoughts, in general, on when the disparity in earnings yield clearly warrants switching between two stocks with similar prospects going forward.

    I have been adding to my IBM and WMT positions and plan on holding NKE.
    Jun 7 07:51 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Emerging Markets: The Place To Be [View article]
    I agree that Africa has great investment potential over the next decade plus. I chose T. Rowe Price Africa & Middle East Fund, TRAMX as my investment vehicle as none of the ETFs excited me. I also have T. Rowe Price Latin America Fund, PRALX to broaden my exposure to Frontier Markets. I hope there will be an index ETF that provides broader exposure than FM in the near future. Until then multiple mutual funds seems to be the best choice IMHO.
    Jan 9 10:48 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fiscal Cliff: Let's Call Their Bluff [View article]
    The issue of the fiscal cliff is mind-boggling. We have the majority of Americans agreeing that taxes should go up for the top 2%. At the same time we have almost everyone agreeing that our government representatives are dysfunctional. So we have an insane situation where most Americans are saying we should give more money to dysfunctional people.
    Dec 28 08:45 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What The Yield? Beware The Temptations Of Emerging Markets Debt [View article]
    I have a relatively small investment in the T. Rowe Price Emerging Markets Bond Fund, PREMX, that I initiated in 2009 and have been pleased with the performance. I believe that a well diversified portfolio should have some exposure to government and corporate debt securities of emerging and frontier nations. However, to date I would say that it is not as non-correlated to say the S&P500 as I had thought it would be. Time will tell...
    Dec 11 08:39 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Taxes: Who Makes And Who Pays - More Than The Rich Will Have To Pay More [View article]
    Mr. Shaw - Thanks for your series of articles concerning 2013 taxes. I found all three to be informative and well presented. Unfortunately, many are not interested in the data if it doesn’t support their preconceived notions or are not capable of assimilating the information. This is evident from the plethora of comments that are basically just envious of the more successful.

    It appears that democracy is destroying capitalism. The majority of people have come to understand that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury but are incapable of understanding the consequences of that policy. Thomas Jefferson rightly warned that to preserve the independence of the people, we must not let our rulers load us with perpetual debt and that it is disastrous to take from one because he has acquired too much in order to spare others who have not exercised equal industry and skill.
    Dec 9 12:17 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Rich Will Not Abandon Dividend Stocks [View article]
    If you live in a state that is almost exclusively run by democrats you will have higher taxes and more poor people. Why this basic fact doesn’t change voting preferences is amazing.
    Dec 9 11:00 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2013 Dividend Tax Impacts [View article]
    The most relevant statistic is that about 25% of Americans are totally dependent on the government for their existence and another 25% think that is okay.
    Dec 8 08:42 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2013 Dividend Tax Impacts [View article]
    I don’t believe that analyzing where dividend paying stocks are held (tax or taxed deferred) is particularly relevant to the discussion of the ramifications of the disparity between the anticipated dividend tax rate and the capital gain tax rate. The members of the board of directors will allocate capital based on what they believe is best for their shareholders. This decision will be largely skewed to what is best for their largest shareholders. A dividend tax rate twice as high as the capital gain tax rate will result in favoring share buybacks over dividends. This will mean less income from dividends. Bringing dividend payments forward and issuing special dividends are clear evidence that this is true.

    It is interesting that consumer confidence dropped significantly as reported this morning. The loss of confidence was largely from those in higher income brackets. The economic policies of the democrats will have negative consequences that the majority of Americans don’t comprehend.
    Dec 7 10:47 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's Offers A 3.7% Yield And 10% Dividend Growth Rate [View article]
    AA - Thanks for pointing out the virtues of MCD. Historically, when MCD has a misstep it has been a good time to take or add to a position. I don’t think this time is any different. MCD will continue to generate huge amounts of cash and be investor friendly in returning a sizable portion of it to shareholders. I added to my position about a month ago at $88 and again on Friday at $83.46. IMO MCD should be at the top of a DGI buy list. Its 3.70% yield, a 20-year DGR of 17.07% and a 10-year DGR of 27.38% make it very compelling.
    Nov 18 07:02 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
589 Comments
1,298 Likes