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Prudent Man CFA is a
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There is no way to all the risks and to think statistical analysis can do it is plain sophistry. Ask the guys at LTCM and the people who went to work at the Twin Tower seven years ago.
Sep 11 15:43 pm
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All Comments by Prudent Man CFA »The Nature of Risk [View article]
To use statistics to try and understand risk is lazy. Considering that human nature is impossible to explain, what makes anyone think a computer can make sense of what they are going to do. Statistics can measure some risks but it is my experience that one should not put much confidence, let alone wealth, in anyone trying to predict using them.
Good old fundamentals combined with technical analysis, intellect, skill and guts will trump any statistician, none of whom I ever heard of making big money in markets for any substantial period of time. Even a stopped clock is correct twice a day.
The title of my Graduate School thesis decades ago was "Beta is Bull Shit". It is like telling one what was in last weeks newspaper.