Richard Bloch's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/user/863379/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/1404071/comments?source=feed#comment-18560291 18560291
To be more accurate the fund can go up on certain days or weeks even if the volatility term structure is in contango (generally when the contango is narrowing), but its value ebbs away over time.

And yes, that's because backwardation is not the normal state for the volatility term structure -- and rarely lasts for very long.]]> Tue, 07 May 2013 21:02:27 -0400
To be more accurate the fund can go up on certain days or weeks even if the volatility term structure is in contango (generally when the contango is narrowing), but its value ebbs away over time.

And yes, that's because backwardation is not the normal state for the volatility term structure -- and rarely lasts for very long.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1398331/comments?source=feed#comment-18483841 18483841 Mon, 06 May 2013 06:28:01 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1404071/comments?source=feed#comment-18483821 18483821 Mon, 06 May 2013 06:26:53 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1043631/comments?source=feed#comment-12371111 12371111 Fri, 07 Dec 2012 13:51:30 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/959561/comments?source=feed#comment-11112901 11112901 Thu, 01 Nov 2012 07:17:14 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/959561/comments?source=feed#comment-11032111 11032111
But as for the *charts*, yes I create them myself (and that's fun too)]]> Tue, 30 Oct 2012 00:40:07 -0400
But as for the *charts*, yes I create them myself (and that's fun too)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/959561/comments?source=feed#comment-11022501 11022501 Mon, 29 Oct 2012 16:15:42 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/938231/comments?source=feed#comment-10783101 10783101 Mon, 22 Oct 2012 17:34:44 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/938231/comments?source=feed#comment-10775831 10775831
One issue could be that the expense ratios may have been different over time. Another is that while each fund "seeks" to track an index, the fund holdings are sometimes slightly different from one ETF to the next.

Thanks for pointing that out, though.]]> Mon, 22 Oct 2012 14:25:51 -0400
One issue could be that the expense ratios may have been different over time. Another is that while each fund "seeks" to track an index, the fund holdings are sometimes slightly different from one ETF to the next.

Thanks for pointing that out, though.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/938231/comments?source=feed#comment-10764831 10764831 Mon, 22 Oct 2012 10:07:01 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/923461/comments?source=feed#comment-10536741 10536741 Mon, 15 Oct 2012 09:19:01 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/915301/comments?source=feed#comment-10459111 10459111 Fri, 12 Oct 2012 09:50:24 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/915301/comments?source=feed#comment-10455261 10455261 Fri, 12 Oct 2012 08:07:55 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/915301/comments?source=feed#comment-10437271 10437271 Thu, 11 Oct 2012 16:03:51 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/915301/comments?source=feed#comment-10433561 10433561 Thu, 11 Oct 2012 14:33:34 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/915301/comments?source=feed#comment-10365401 10365401 Wed, 10 Oct 2012 08:34:34 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/855511/comments?source=feed#comment-9559341 9559341 Mon, 17 Sep 2012 19:38:24 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/855511/comments?source=feed#comment-9432621 9432621 Thu, 13 Sep 2012 22:00:59 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/744921/comments?source=feed#comment-9393261 9393261 Thu, 13 Sep 2012 07:18:21 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/855511/comments?source=feed#comment-9352791 9352791
I show that VXX hit a low somewhere near 11 the last time before it reverse split to around 44 -- so I don't think it ever had a "9 handle" before.

However I realize I am "splitting hairs" because the "real" price for VXX is around 2.50 if it had not split back in 2010.

As for 2014, I'd have to evaluate a few different scenarios before offering an opinion on that.]]> Wed, 12 Sep 2012 07:10:32 -0400
I show that VXX hit a low somewhere near 11 the last time before it reverse split to around 44 -- so I don't think it ever had a "9 handle" before.

However I realize I am "splitting hairs" because the "real" price for VXX is around 2.50 if it had not split back in 2010.

As for 2014, I'd have to evaluate a few different scenarios before offering an opinion on that.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/855511/comments?source=feed#comment-9258211 9258211 Sun, 09 Sep 2012 23:14:50 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/855511/comments?source=feed#comment-9256731 9256731 Sun, 09 Sep 2012 21:21:43 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/855511/comments?source=feed#comment-9256691 9256691
More of the same, a market that seems to believe that QE3 is "at hand," and you'll want to (in general) be trading the XIV inverse ETN as dd2020dd describes above.

If there's going to be a meaningful correction in the market that lasts a few days or weeks, VXX will take off for a short time (a few days at a time for a few weeks at the most).

I personally believe that tradeonline.ca (also above) is right, that the VIX is like a coiled spring ready to move up. I'm just not smart enough to know when.]]> Sun, 09 Sep 2012 21:20:16 -0400
More of the same, a market that seems to believe that QE3 is "at hand," and you'll want to (in general) be trading the XIV inverse ETN as dd2020dd describes above.

If there's going to be a meaningful correction in the market that lasts a few days or weeks, VXX will take off for a short time (a few days at a time for a few weeks at the most).

I personally believe that tradeonline.ca (also above) is right, that the VIX is like a coiled spring ready to move up. I'm just not smart enough to know when.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/855511/comments?source=feed#comment-9249901 9249901
What you CAN buy is a contract with the value ultimately determined by this statistic on a certain date. These are VIX futures contracts, which are usually in the contango you describe. But whether contagoed or not, VIX futures expire at the VIX spot price every month. It's not a commodity like oil you can just store for the future.

The ETNs trade these futures contracts, but can they impact the VIX itself over the long term? I doubt it. After all, an SPX option is going to be expensive if people want it and cheap if they don't. And that's what the VIX measures, the portion of the value of these options that reflects expected moves in the markets. The rest of it is sort of like a sideshow in my view.]]> Sun, 09 Sep 2012 14:09:37 -0400
What you CAN buy is a contract with the value ultimately determined by this statistic on a certain date. These are VIX futures contracts, which are usually in the contango you describe. But whether contagoed or not, VIX futures expire at the VIX spot price every month. It's not a commodity like oil you can just store for the future.

The ETNs trade these futures contracts, but can they impact the VIX itself over the long term? I doubt it. After all, an SPX option is going to be expensive if people want it and cheap if they don't. And that's what the VIX measures, the portion of the value of these options that reflects expected moves in the markets. The rest of it is sort of like a sideshow in my view.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/855511/comments?source=feed#comment-9248851 9248851
Yes, the inverse XIV is definitely the place when contango rules the day. Thanks for your comment on my chart.]]> Sun, 09 Sep 2012 13:07:01 -0400
Yes, the inverse XIV is definitely the place when contango rules the day. Thanks for your comment on my chart.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/844571/comments?source=feed#comment-9089021 9089021 Tue, 04 Sep 2012 17:51:50 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/844571/comments?source=feed#comment-9069101 9069101 Tue, 04 Sep 2012 08:54:46 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/829881/comments?source=feed#comment-8888221 8888221
You might find this article from last May interesting, including a chart from Andy Zaky that shows how the PE has "compressed" in the past.

http://bit.ly/ItWtPf

I don't think the dividend will make that much of a difference to the PE. It does provide a certain degree of yield support, but I think we need to see how much the company is willing to raise it.

As for 2013, a lot depends on the overall market itself -- and I am not especially optimistic. I think Apple will be fine, but if the market swoons, AAPL's PE is likely to move down again.

If you're thinking of selling, perhaps you could take a middle ground -- turning a "large group of shares" into a "smaller group of shares."? Just my opinion, but it might be easier to be patient that way.]]> Wed, 29 Aug 2012 07:39:56 -0400
You might find this article from last May interesting, including a chart from Andy Zaky that shows how the PE has "compressed" in the past.

http://bit.ly/ItWtPf

I don't think the dividend will make that much of a difference to the PE. It does provide a certain degree of yield support, but I think we need to see how much the company is willing to raise it.

As for 2013, a lot depends on the overall market itself -- and I am not especially optimistic. I think Apple will be fine, but if the market swoons, AAPL's PE is likely to move down again.

If you're thinking of selling, perhaps you could take a middle ground -- turning a "large group of shares" into a "smaller group of shares."? Just my opinion, but it might be easier to be patient that way.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/829881/comments?source=feed#comment-8858431 8858431 Tue, 28 Aug 2012 12:38:13 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/829881/comments?source=feed#comment-8833621 8833621 Mon, 27 Aug 2012 18:31:54 -0400