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  • Africa Opportunity Fund: Unappreciated, Underestimated And Undervalued. [View article]
    I think John and others are missing the point. If we agree GDP statistics should not be used, then that perhaps strengthen the case for Africa, not weaken it. Other indicators show more progress than GDP - for example indicators related to consumption, health or education.

    GDP statistics perhaps understates Africa's progress - at any rate there is more evidence of that than the opposite. The resources story is overplayed (resource curse?) - Africa can do well because governance is improving significantly, no need to bring China and India into it. Did China and India do well mainly because of some other countries or because they changed their development strategies in a fruitful direction? Finally, the relationship between economic growth and stock returns in Africa or elsewhere is extremely complex - expecting a contemporaneous correlation between the two is wrongheaded to begin with in terms of finance theory.
    Aug 16, 2014. 08:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Outlook For The Indian Rupee [View article]
    Modi's supporters may find that what he actually wants to do is different from what they thought he wanted to do.
    Aug 4, 2014. 08:12 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 4 Stages Of Chinese Growth [View article]

    Do you remember all those Sovietologists who would say that both their government and our government is oppressive, it is only a matter of degrees etc! I remember some Chinese venture capitalist at a TED meeting making some ridiculous arguments against democracy and in favor of what he believes is the Chinese model and he managed to get a lot of claps from a Western audience! (more than he expected, I am sure). The fact is that even a college educated person in a Western society is unlikely to have a sophisticated understanding of politics or democracy and why those things work. It requires nothing less than a proper education in politics and social sciences which even in USA or UK most people are unlikely to have. You can read the rebuttal to that venture capitalist (I think his name was Eric Li) by Yasheng Huang, a professor at MIT Business school

    One fundamental problem is that people massively underestimate the fragility of a dictatorship or authoritarian form of government. The elites are determined to project an image of "Everything is in order and we are in control" - yet they are busy moving their ill gotten wealth to offshore locations in preparation of trouble.
    Jun 19, 2014. 10:10 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 4 Stages Of Chinese Growth [View article]
    Nope. It is you who is displaying such ignorance. If you were even dimly aware of the depth of the author's scholarship of China, you wouldn't be making the fairly obvious points that you are making with such gusto! He talking about the institutional reforms in China since 1978 to mid to late 1980's and the massive surge in agricultural and industrial productivity that it led to. Those reforms fundamentally changed the structure of incentives facing farmers and businesses - and the surge in productivity wasn't just about capital accumulation. Please read Yasheng Huang of MIT business school on Chinese entrepreneurship in the 1980's.
    Jun 19, 2014. 09:58 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 4 Stages Of Chinese Growth [View article]
    How does it invalidate any of the author's central arguments if we accept your contention that the coastal regions did a lot better than inland regions (a common enough regional pattern in many countries) and that FDI from Hong Kong played a role? He is not writing a book on China's economic development. Do you imagine the author doesn't know that the pace of economic development among China's provinces differ significantly? Or he doesn't know the role played by FDI? If you imagine that, it only shows your ignorance.
    Jun 19, 2014. 09:54 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Modi Rally [View article]
    Recovery in the financial markets will precede recovery in the real economy. If economic growth takes two years to recover, that doesn't mean you should invest after two years. In two years time, shares may already be bid up to high levels because of expectations of a strong recovery and a high growth trajectory. But I actually didn't buy before the rally- because I think any hint of a crisis in China will lead to a significant fall in stock prices in most emerging markets and that can provide an attractive entry point.
    May 22, 2014. 05:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GM Could Rally 40% In 2014 [View article]
    Thanks for the interesting article. Why did you opt for a portfolio concentrated in autos? Just curious....(BTW- mine is too, more than 50% is F, GM and FIATY). Is it because as the economy rebounds (relatively) strongly in USA and eventually in Europe, you expect the auto companies to do well? I guess cyclical stocks can be great buys if we can predict the cycle correctly. But if the European crisis flares up again (for whatever reason), then FIAT could be doomed. It may well decline by 30%....
    Dec 15, 2013. 06:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Too Late To Buy India? [View article]
    Keep waiting! The currency crisis is NOT happening. Not that I have much specialized knowledge, anybody who actually follows the economy will say that.
    Dec 9, 2013. 07:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Too Late To Buy India? [View article]
    IFN is not the Sensex...I saw the Sensex 8% real return, 8% is very different than 0%!
    Dec 9, 2013. 07:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Too Late To Buy India? [View article]
    The positive scenario is quite plausible. The reason 20014-19 is expected to be better is not just because there is likely to be less destructive populism than the previous 5 years, but because the global economy is recovering somewhat. (if you are prepared to be somewhat optimistic and assume that the EU crisis won't flare again letting Europe recover gradually and China will not experience the mother of all hard landings etc etc). We should also note that the deleveraging process has progressed considerably in the US and the global economy in the last 5 years laying the foundations of a moderately strong economic recovery. What is not recognized (as clearly as it needs to be) is that India's economic performance has a lot to do with the global economic cycle. A strong cyclical rebound in USA and a modest upturn in Europe over the next 2 years should support India.
    Another factor is the growth of the Indian middle class. It is creating room for a lot more rational and prosperity centric politics rather than the usual identity politics and distribution of patronage. Students of political economy will be well aware of the "middle class consensus" and its relationship to parameters of governance. In fact, in my view we are in the beginning of a long bull period in Indian markets and your return assumptions are not unrealistic. (though there is significant uncertainty as is common in emerging countries).
    On curreny, I wouldn't worry. India had a higher inflation rate than USA for years, so the exchange rate depreciation was urgently needed. (without it the exchange rate was becoming quite overvalued in real terms causing current a/c deficits). In future, India's currency should appreciate in real terms...because India's growth rate will be at least double that of USA. (Balassa Samuelson).
    Dec 9, 2013. 03:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Too Late To Buy India? [View article]
    Not true!
    Dec 9, 2013. 02:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • India: A Contrarian Investor's Dream Come True? [View article]
    Why last week @bowater? Care to explain your reasoning?
    Dec 8, 2013. 01:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Big 2Q Result From Radcom - Stock Has Significant Upside [View instapost]
    Yes, I actually had the same question as "tuliptown".
    Sep 27, 2013. 09:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Harvard Bioscience Bulls Need A Lot Of HART [View article]
    Thanks a lot for your detailed response. I bought 1000 shares at $5.40 a couple of months back, so I guess it makes sense for me to hold on for some time, at least till I receive the Hart shares. I am intrigued by your comments on valuation, do you agree with this analysis by Tappan Street partners
    Please look at the last paragraph if you haven't seen this already.
    Sep 19, 2013. 08:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Profit From The Coming Economic Crisis In India [View article]
    The point about current account deficit is not correct- it will decline significantly this year - because exports have started picking up sharply - export growth has seen a big jump in the last 2 months...non-food inflation is down sharply because of the high output gap. India had a short term rally even without any structural reform - and even without any significant reform, shorting India (or the Indian currency) is unlikely to be a profitable strategy.
    Sep 19, 2013. 08:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment