Dr. Doom Has Gold Going Below $1,000: Why His Thesis Is Spot On [View article]
Gold should be at least 5% of every personal portfolio, perhaps even up to 10-15% depending on your age and macroeconomic outlook in the medium / long term.
If you do not own some form of gold/gold miners, you are not being flexible and pragmatic...simple as that.
Silver Wheaton - Determining Long-Term And Short-Term Thresholds [View article]
The increase you describe in PPE isn't double, it's a 41% increase. Regardless, did it increase because of they essentially have some percentage of ownership in certain properties with silver mines on them or soon to be on them?
North Dakota Oil Production Growth Is Slowing - Is This Temporary Or Will It Continue? [View article]
Lots of good discussion here. Sometimes not making a decision about where things are headed is making a decision. I'm going to see things play out more before making judgments about the medium or long term as I want to see how rig movement goes the rest of the year.
If people are actually getting jobs, I wonder what percentage are full-time jobs paying over $20/hour or $40,000 a year? Part-time jobs at 29 hours a week and at $13/hour help but they aren't good enough.
"The Real Bubble is Gold: and It's Deflating," writes MKM's Mike Darda, who says the key turning point was the metal's (GLD. IAU) failure to rally in wake of last fall's QE∞ inception. "Investors simply took it at face value that gold was soaring and would continue to rise because of (the Fed)." Inflation picking up will be even worse for gold, he says, as this would make the Fed an aggressive tightener of policy. [View news story]
People have eaten beans for thousands of years for food...people have also used gold as a medium/currency of exchange for thousands of years. PMs generally have a negative beta and thus usually move in the opposite direction of the equity markets as seen from the beginning of this year to today.
As for world trade patterns, they have already changed significantly over the last 20 years with China and India's rise and China joining the WTO. The biggest change in the last 5 years has actually been the USA producing much more of its own oil and natural gas, which has helped domestic job growth, the trade deficit, US consumers (lower NG prices means lower electricity prices), and US Industry (lower NG prices mean lower inputs for chemical and fertilizer companies, others as well).
That's not to say we won't have some mild or moderate deflation over the next few years but a lot of your thesis is premised on false assumptions and info.
That QE taper may end up being a QE expansion as FRBNY President Bill Dudley tells a gathering in Japan the uncertain economic outlook has him unsure if the next move will be up or down. He worries about investor over-reaction to a "normalization" of policy and suggests the FOMC may need to update what it needs to see to move in that direction. Stocks like the "up" talk, the S&P 500 (SPY +0.4%) at a fresh session high. [View news story]
I didn't get a 0% car loan but 3.99% is not bad (with about 25% down).
Beware Long-Term Damage From Stock Market Bubble Forming Now [View article]
Hi David, I agree with you about the purpose of the Fed and QE. My question is more about the timing of their actions. Are you confident that the Fed will provide just the right amount of liquidity (not too much or too little) and then be able to deftly withdraw liquidity from the system, timing it perfectly?
As for the American economy as whole, I believe we are in for better times in about 3 years. Why? About 7,000 baby-boomers are retiring every day and the first baby-boomers turned 62 (early eligibility for Social Security) started retiring in 2008 when the economy was crashing. Unfortunately, we don't have enough younger people replacing their demand for goods and services (people generally have less demand for goods and services the older they get and especially when they stop working / go on fixed income). As the echo-boomers age into their 30's, we will see much greater numbers of household formation and spending since they will be buying houses, having babies themselves, and generally increasing their take-home pay as they move through their career. Echo boomers were generally born between 1985 and 2000 so the very first of this large demographic are only 28 this year. In 2015, they will be the first to hit that important 30-44 demographic and each year after that should provide even more wind in our sails as annual births peaked in 1991 (births declined some until it marched upwards again in 1999).
What's interesting is that the S&P 500 has largely tracked the number of Americans who are in the prime demographic of 35-39 (when household formation and spending peaks and 35-39 year olds are making more money than they were when they were 30).
Lastly and avoiding the politics of the debate, immigration has helped American avoid absolute declining population numbers. A large part of the deflation we see in Japan is because their population is shrinking, putting downward pressure on demand and prices. Fortunately, America's population continues to grow and once more of our 20 year olds enter their 30's, watch out!
Dr. Doom Has Gold Going Below $1,000: Why His Thesis Is Spot On [View article]
If you do not own some form of gold/gold miners, you are not being flexible and pragmatic...simple as that.
Dr. Doom Has Gold Going Below $1,000: Why His Thesis Is Spot On [View article]
For what it's worth, I not only own physical gold and PHYS/PSLV but also own miners. Miners have more operational risk but they pay a dividend.
Silver Wheaton - Determining Long-Term And Short-Term Thresholds [View article]
Soros And Jim Grant Like Junior Gold Miners - Takeout Target Pershing Gold Might Be One To Focus On [View article]
The Short Side Of Gold Miners: The Latest Dissemination [View article]
http://bit.ly/12fXpqg
Soros And Jim Grant Like Junior Gold Miners - Takeout Target Pershing Gold Might Be One To Focus On [View article]
http://bit.ly/12fXpqg
Soros And Jim Grant Like Junior Gold Miners - Takeout Target Pershing Gold Might Be One To Focus On [View article]
North Dakota Oil Production Growth Is Slowing - Is This Temporary Or Will It Continue? [View article]
Initial Jobless Claims: -23K to 340K vs. 345K consensus, 363K prior (revised). Continuing claims -112K to 2.91M. [View news story]
"The Real Bubble is Gold: and It's Deflating," writes MKM's Mike Darda, who says the key turning point was the metal's (GLD. IAU) failure to rally in wake of last fall's QE∞ inception. "Investors simply took it at face value that gold was soaring and would continue to rise because of (the Fed)." Inflation picking up will be even worse for gold, he says, as this would make the Fed an aggressive tightener of policy. [View news story]
As for world trade patterns, they have already changed significantly over the last 20 years with China and India's rise and China joining the WTO. The biggest change in the last 5 years has actually been the USA producing much more of its own oil and natural gas, which has helped domestic job growth, the trade deficit, US consumers (lower NG prices means lower electricity prices), and US Industry (lower NG prices mean lower inputs for chemical and fertilizer companies, others as well).
That's not to say we won't have some mild or moderate deflation over the next few years but a lot of your thesis is premised on false assumptions and info.
5 Commodity Stocks Moving On News [View article]
5 Commodity Stocks Moving On News [View article]
5 Commodity Stocks Moving On News [View article]
That QE taper may end up being a QE expansion as FRBNY President Bill Dudley tells a gathering in Japan the uncertain economic outlook has him unsure if the next move will be up or down. He worries about investor over-reaction to a "normalization" of policy and suggests the FOMC may need to update what it needs to see to move in that direction. Stocks like the "up" talk, the S&P 500 (SPY +0.4%) at a fresh session high. [View news story]
Beware Long-Term Damage From Stock Market Bubble Forming Now [View article]
As for the American economy as whole, I believe we are in for better times in about 3 years. Why? About 7,000 baby-boomers are retiring every day and the first baby-boomers turned 62 (early eligibility for Social Security) started retiring in 2008 when the economy was crashing. Unfortunately, we don't have enough younger people replacing their demand for goods and services (people generally have less demand for goods and services the older they get and especially when they stop working / go on fixed income). As the echo-boomers age into their 30's, we will see much greater numbers of household formation and spending since they will be buying houses, having babies themselves, and generally increasing their take-home pay as they move through their career. Echo boomers were generally born between 1985 and 2000 so the very first of this large demographic are only 28 this year. In 2015, they will be the first to hit that important 30-44 demographic and each year after that should provide even more wind in our sails as annual births peaked in 1991 (births declined some until it marched upwards again in 1999).
What's interesting is that the S&P 500 has largely tracked the number of Americans who are in the prime demographic of 35-39 (when household formation and spending peaks and 35-39 year olds are making more money than they were when they were 30).
Lastly and avoiding the politics of the debate, immigration has helped American avoid absolute declining population numbers. A large part of the deflation we see in Japan is because their population is shrinking, putting downward pressure on demand and prices. Fortunately, America's population continues to grow and once more of our 20 year olds enter their 30's, watch out!