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smlaker

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  • SandRidge Permian Trust: Hidden Value In SandRidge's Scraps [View article]
    Buy SDRL "If you want a great divy and potential capital appreciation". Yeah, that turned out to be real sound advice.

    Just goes to show all of us that no one has a better crystal ball than the guy (or gal) sitting next to him/her.

    SM
    Dec 10, 2014. 09:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital: What To Do After Today's Dividend Cut [View article]
    This has to remind me of SDRL. Investors in both SDRL and PSEC knew that both companies were skating on very thin ice, yet many seemed to be caught in a state of denial, given my readings on the SA boards.

    If one bought PSEC knowing that the risk of a severe dividend cut could occur, then this may simply be a buying opportunity; a chance to add to one's position.

    On the other hand, if one were really convinced that the company would continue down a path of not meeting their commitments with current FCF (instead of borrowing, issuing new shares, etc.), well, then the term "chasing yield" comes to mind.

    Long MAIN and TCAP (which has had problems of late, as well).

    NOT short PSEC.

    SM
    Dec 9, 2014. 01:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tax Loss Selling May Be A Large Factor In 2014 For Oil And Gas Trusts [View article]
    I'm sorry that you're sorry. I got the point of the article, loud and clear. Just a small attempt at humor on my part. Apparently it failed, to some degree.

    My point is that so-called "tax-loss selling" only makes sense if one wants to sell anyway. After all, if one were to offset 100% of one's gains through matching losses, then one would make exactly nothing in the market.

    Since I don't think that's why most of us are in the market in the first place, that is to say, as a form of recreation, as opposed to "making money", matching losses with gains is a sign of mediocre investing at best.

    No, I get your point exactly, and what you say is certainly true, although it seems to be contrary to why we're in the market in the first place.

    For me, I bought PER, ROYT, VOC AND NDRO over the last week, with the bulk of my purchases coming yesterday.

    I sat by my computer and bought in tranches of $3,000 per order. As the price continued to dip, and tripped my "limit buy order", I entered another one at a lower price until I filled my positions.

    By the end of the session, I had filled all four comfortably, and with a slight loss from the closing price. Now, I might see a dip from here, but I won't be selling for tax-loss purposes!

    I guess one can say that "one man's trash is another man's treasure". I feel that I bought some treasures!

    SM
    Dec 9, 2014. 01:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • VOC Energy Trust: A Forecast Of Future Distributions [View article]
    First, I find this to be a thorough and well thought-out analysis. I appreciate the work done here by Forensic Accountant, as I do for most SA authors. What a labor they provide for us, who are simply readers!

    I have been patiently waiting for an entry point for VOC and a few other energy trusts. I want a "screaming bargain", because of the uncertainties. That entry point came yesterday, when I bought my shares for a bit lower than you did, using a limit order.

    And, while I realize that the assumptions in this article are based on three different scenarios for oil prices, I really don't believe in what some people are saying about $65 oil being around for several years (or longer). I also don't believe that $50 oil is on the horizon, but then, I have been wrong before.

    In any event, my plans are to ride this one for the full 15 years, perhaps until the end. If I can get a return of 6-8% per year after a full return of my capital, then I figure this is just a nice annuity.

    We shall see.

    SM
    Dec 9, 2014. 11:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Enduro Royalty Trust: A Forecast Of Future Distributions [View article]
    What a thorough analysis! I have been waiting for the opportunity to get back into oil trusts, since my first experiences with the Canadian oil trusts 20 years ago.

    I just bought NDRO, VOC and ROYT all for a fraction of the prices available over the past several years. Yes, I know there is a risk that the oil price may stay down for some time, but I expect many years of very good returns after that. My NDRO entry price is near $6.00/unit for just over 3,000 units.

    Thanks for this great article, which was just one piece of the puzzle I needed to help me take the plunge.

    SM
    Dec 9, 2014. 10:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love The Collapse Of The Oil Market [View article]
    I find it hard to believe that the oil trusts are taking such a beating. While the drop in oil prices at the well head will certainly affect the distributions as long as the price of oil stays down, it won't be nearly as great as the price drop.

    VOC, NDRO, ROYT, to name a few.

    SM
    Dec 8, 2014. 05:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 48 MLPs For Income: Are The 10% To 20% Yields For Real, Or Too Good To Be True? Part 4 [View article]
    Wonderful article as usual. I have owned OKS long before I heard of Seeking Alpha or DGI, as a practice. I have more than doubled my position just from the cap. app. alone. I don't watch it. I don't babysit it. It is in a taxable account, and TurboTax has made the K-1 nightmare bearable.

    Now, as I have tried to set up a DGI portfolio in my Rollover IRA, where 90% of my money is located, the UBIT issue has me kind of nervous.

    I have therefore spent considerable time looking for good MLP management companies, where the "C" corp. structure takes the worry out of the equation. That has so far led me to KMI and WMB. I have done considerable research, but the yield of the managing general partners, for the most part, just isn't attractive. OKE, KMI and WMB being three exceptions. I won't own LNCO because of the recent accounting issues. I don't need more headaches to deal with.

    Here is an open question, which I have posed before on this website. Are there others, where the yield exceeds, for example COP, enough to merit looking at them.

    SM
    Dec 4, 2014. 09:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tax Loss Selling May Be A Large Factor In 2014 For Oil And Gas Trusts [View article]
    Reminds me of a guy I used to work with, who told me that he wasn't going to work any more overtime "because the government took it all". I asked him if he was in the 100% tax bracket, and he gave me this puzzled look.

    I never could understand why people sell something they think will strongly rebound just a few months after they sell unless, of course, they are in the 100% tax bracket.

    SM
    Dec 3, 2014. 09:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Enduro Royalty Trust: Dividend Stock Analysis [View article]
    Great information, but decidedly "dated". If you liked it at $15-$16, what is your opinion now that it trades for $7.04/share, also given that the distribution is down to approximately $0.52/year, as opposed to $1.61/year. Yield is only 6.90%. Is all of this temporary??

    Thanks,

    SM
    Nov 29, 2014. 11:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hold Your Nose And Start Buying Royalty Trusts [View article]
    Pardon my observation, but you don't seem terribly upbeat. I cut my teeth on Canadian Oil Trusts in the early 2000s and left once they imposed the 15% withholding tax for U. S. holders. Still, I learned a bunch, but have not kept up with some of the newer U. S. trusts.

    I just read your April, 2013 article on VOC, and it was far more upbeat. Now, at 1/2 the price, you seem reserved.

    Great information. Thanks. So, the question is this. At what price per barrel is VOC/NRDO no longer profitable, meaning nothing to distribute?

    SM
    Nov 29, 2014. 10:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Discount Higher Yields At Your Own Peril [View article]
    Rich, enjoyed your comments and I do side with you. I think the issue here for me is that of the "sleep well at night" philosophy" (SWAN), so often spoken of by many authors and readers on this site. Like all Americans, I was bombarded with news, especially the horrendous fire and images of dying wildlife after the gulf oil spill. Call it sensationalism or whatever, but I would have not, and I repeat would have not held onto BP through this time frame. Now, I didn't own it, and hindsight is always 20/20, but that's just me speaking.

    Now, using that perfectly-clear, backward-looking crystal ball today, would I have still held onto BP? Sure, what fool wouldn't have?

    However, given the information available at the time, and the events that unfolded, I fault no one for selling BP and choosing something with a little less baggage to carry.

    I think the bottom line for me is that this article makes a very important point, but uses questionable examples to do so. I would have preferred seeing simply hypothetical numbers of non-existent companies over some period of time, which would still make the same point; that is to say, higher initial yield is very difficult an obstacle for the DGR to overcome, even given a fairly long time frame. In that context, all other things being equal, and, in the case of BP and JNJ they never were equal, even before the spill, one could still get the general gist, which Elliot is trying to drive home.

    And, for those of us in or nearing retirement, the decision to sell BP would have been an even easier one, as you have stated.

    One simply cannot put a price tag on SWAN.

    SM
    Nov 22, 2014. 02:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Stocks Are Not In A Bubble, But Many Of Them Are Pricey [View article]
    Great information. Like Mike Nadel's article of late, this article presents real, actionable information.

    I noticed that Fast Graphs I is clearly a more conservative tool. If one were to follow that alone, we're darn near bubble territory! A lot of red!!

    Thanks,

    SM
    Nov 21, 2014. 01:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Yearly Dividend Hikes Aren't Always Necessary In A Successful Dividend Growth Portfolio [View article]
    Nice read, and it does remind us that there are multiple facets to investing in common equities. However, this argument has been hashed out on this website over and over.

    If a person is living off of the dividend, and a freeze and or cut occurs, then a tough decision needs to be made.

    Since hindsight is always 20-20, your examples show how holding through the cut can work out for the better.

    But, for every one you find that came back like a roaring lion, I can find one that died on the vine.

    Dividend Growth Investing is just that. If my employer were to "freeze" my wages, I would have to make a tough choice, look for another job or suffer the ravages of inflation. One person may stay, while another may move on. There is no right or wrong, only one's reaction to events as they are currently understood. No one can predict the future.

    Your approach sounds more like a "deep value" investing approach, and is not necessarily DGI.

    SM
    Nov 17, 2014. 07:45 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hasbro-DreamWorks deal fizzles [View news story]
    One thing I have never fully understood about the world of equities is how the market can set a price for a stock, and, assuming that the market is "efficient", that price is "way too low" in the eyes of the current management/shareholders, when someone makes a tender offer.

    Seems to me to be the equivalent of someone trying to sell a clunker of an automobile, and it just won't sell for the asking price. Then someone comes along and sees some value in it but, instead of negotiating a better price, or at least paying the asking price, that someone offers 40% more!

    No one reading this post would be dumb enough to do that, so why are so-called intelligent company executives so willing?

    To me it's dumbfounding.

    SM
    Nov 16, 2014. 04:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • You Can Find Better Food Stocks Than McDonald's [View article]
    I agree Sunnypt.

    The only candidate that helps me out at all is Kraft, and it is in a different industry. I may consider initiating a position, but not at the expense of my only restaurant stock.

    The others are way too overpriced (Burger King shows a P/E of about 65) or the yield is not going to work for me (anything under 2.6% is not on my radar).

    Not that the article doesn't offer food for thought (pun intended), but it doesn't really offer an apples-to-apples alternative.

    So, I'll stay put for now.

    SM
    Nov 13, 2014. 02:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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