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siberiavol

siberiavol
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  • American Realty Capital Partners' Red Lobster Deal May Turn Out To Be A Real Albatross [View article]
    Golden Gate isn't in the business of throwing money away. They passed some of the risk to ARCP which is prudent but they obviously have plans for the restaurant chain. Darden wasn't selling in a great atmosphere . They were getting out under pressure. Generally I like the buyer's position in these settings.

    My biggest criticism of ARCP is the equity issue after saying they weren't interesting in selling at those levels. There should be a detailed explanation from management on their thinking.
    Jun 9, 2014. 02:52 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A 9.8% Yield And Monthly Dividends For Your Retirement Portfolio [View article]
    Tesr
    Dec 29, 2013. 09:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rate worries again rout income favorites [View news story]
    I am buying the preferreds. I have taken the plunge twice in the last few years when there was a lot of distress.Once with the banks and a later with the hotel group in things like HTpA and AHTpD. Both of those moves worked out. I am in neither group now.

    I started buying a few days ago and continue to add but the last two days have been very tough. I didn't expect the last 5-8 % down with the ten year still under 3%. I think all are oversold but you might look at ARR A and B as a beginning point. I am in several and expect to be a scale in buyer.

    The thing that scares me the most short term is the group appears to be entering a period where the losses are so large for many holders that their decision to sell isn't really going to be made based on fundamentals. They want out and a person like myself who bargin hunts can be down a quick 15-20%. In this case I think it is worth the risk because they are very difficult to buy if sentiment changes.
    Aug 19, 2013. 10:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Panicky selling grips the mortgage REITs (REM -3.5%) as Treasury yields soar following the payroll report. American Capital (AGNC -6.9%), (MTGE -5%), Annaly (NLY -6.9%) Chimera (CIM -4.9%), Armour (ARR -3.9%), Invesco (IVR -2.7%), CYS Investments (CYS -3%). CYS' Kevin Grant was public a month ago about being a happy buyer as yields rose - a bit early on that call. [View news story]
    The Merrill Lynch analyst said back in mid June that he thought NLY book value would be around $12.00 if 10 year TBOND went to 3%. Of course the portfolio could have changed since then.

    The group seems extremely cheap as most are selling at big discounts to BV. I am still averaging down assuming rates are not going straight to 3.5-4%. My biggest concern is an event risk such as a margin call because of the rapidity of the move. All the analysts I have read think this is highly unlikely but been doing this for a living since the seventies and know markets can overshoot .

    For me this has been the hundred year flood. I am not surprised rates have moved up. I just didn't see it happening this fast and the stocks going to such deep discounts to book value so quickly.
    Jul 5, 2013. 12:25 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Strategic Hotels: Is The CEO Ready For A Vacation? [View article]
    Davidphd,- They are all dropping for the same reason, the concern that the preferred share holders will be screwed in some type of transaction involving a non public company.

    I shared the information because the bump in interest rate on the B and C if not listed make them more attractive to me than the A shares at the same price.

    The WSJ article Saturday on preferred shareholders being left out to dry couldn't have come at worst time. I still think the preferreds are good buys .Still I am in large positions already and will wait to see what the company is saying and how the search for a buyer is going before doing much more.
    Jun 17, 2013. 10:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Strategic Hotels: Is The CEO Ready For A Vacation? [View article]
    From my reading of the prospectus, if PRF B and PRF C are not listed on NASDQ or AMEX or NYSE then the rate goes from 8.25% to 9.25% on a change of control. The 8.50% doesn't have that provision.

    I have been adding to my positions on this drop down the last two days on the logic that in most cases the preferred is called when there is a buyout. There is also the possibility that BEE only sells some of the hotels and pays down debt which makes it a stronger company. That could lead to them calling the preferred.

    Of course nothing could develop which would leave things as before which would leave the investor focusing on creditworthiness of company and interest rate picture in general.

    Thoughts?
    Jun 14, 2013. 04:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Predictable Return Route To Investment In Strategic Hotels & Resorts [View article]
    Ross, your thoughts on price action of preferreds post recent announcement?

    Assuming LBO, what rights would preferred shareholders have?
    Jun 14, 2013. 01:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Strategic Hotels: Is The CEO Ready For A Vacation? [View article]
    The last $ .30 dropped was what had me perplexed. Another poster made a great case for buying the preferred below the call price in the event of a merger. Being called at $25.00 with accrued dividends in the next few months is appealing to me if II can buy the stock around closing levels.

    Is there a senario where the common gets bought out by a non public company and the preferred is not called? A purchaser using stock in a buyout normally has the option to call or not call the preferred .
    Jun 14, 2013. 09:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Strategic Hotels: Is The CEO Ready For A Vacation? [View article]
    Why would preferred go down after news? I recognize there is an upside limit but nice total return if something if get called.
    Jun 13, 2013. 05:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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