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  • Why Tesla Is Poised To Leave Its Competition In The Dust [View article]
    chip,

    "Market statistics do not seem to support people's preference of EVs over hybrids"

    That's a rather blanket statement isn't it? If you're talking about total number of sales, can't argue with you there, since there are more hybrids available for sale than EV's.

    But if you're talking about rate of sales, I'd really like to see your evidence for it, since EV sales have been growing at a faster rate every month for the past 2 years: http://bit.ly/TjXhje

    And don't bother with the "increases of a small number is still a small number" tripe. My point is that it's been growing and is still growing, so that trend doesn't support your conclusion from whatever statistics you're relying on.
    Aug 16 03:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Tesla Is Poised To Leave Its Competition In The Dust [View article]
    pot pie,

    I brought up the leaf as an example of how overblown range anxiety is in reality.

    I can't disagree with you about the price drop and tax incentives. But if it weren't for them, I would've never taken the chance and learned that the range anxiety wasn't a big issue at all.
    Aug 16 01:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Tesla Is Poised To Leave Its Competition In The Dust [View article]
    tftf,

    From you link:
    "Hyundai Motor Co., South Korea's largest automaker, estimates that the global market for green cars using pure battery power or hybrid propulsion will reach 8 million units by 2020"

    "Samsung SDI, estimated to have 1,062 MWh output capacity, too, ..."

    So with LG at 1GWh, Samsung at 1GWh, and Nissan at 6GWh, and each quadrupling their capacity by 2020 would yield 32GWh ... which is enough for less than 500,000 long-range EV's ... yeah, how exactly does that translate to them taking sales away from Tesla?

    Since you've agreed that "each plant takes 2-3 years to build and ramp production", without anyone else committing to building gigafactories, there still won't be enough EV supply to meet demand even by 2020.
    Aug 16 01:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Tesla Is Poised To Leave Its Competition In The Dust [View article]
    cumiastowski,

    EV acceptance won't be an issue. Once drivers realize that range anxiety isn't an issue with long-range EV's, and charging stations show up in more parking lots (workplace, malls, supermarkets, etc), there are will be nothing holding them back from ditching ICE's (except for the small % of population who needs to commute hundreds of miles daily).

    The Nissan Leaf is proof of this. Despite not having ubiquitous access to chademo chargers, and only a range of ~80 miles, Leaf sales are rising every month.
    Aug 15 08:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Tesla Is Poised To Leave Its Competition In The Dust [View article]
    tftf,

    "Nissan will not stand still, they will introduce higher-density batteries for their infiniti Ev and then the LEAF successor by 2017-2018."

    As a leaf owner, and a witness to their battery upgrade program, I'm all for this.

    But assuming that they double their battery density by 2017 like you think they will, we're still only looking at capacity to build 12GWh of batteries. How much dark space is left? Will that be enough to even approach Tesla's 35GWh? If 35GWh is needed for 500,000 long-range EV's, and 1.5 million EV's (rather low) is the demand by 2020, then there still isn't enough battery capacity to meet demand.
    Aug 15 08:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla, Fairest Welfare Queen Of All, Cracks The Whip [View article]
    fiwiki,

    "The truth is that people should be free to believe what ever they want, as well as do what ever they want with their own money, but NO ONE has the right to foist the costs on to others in order to benefit themselves !"

    That's the problem. Your POV is like that of a smoker's. You think you should be free to hurt yourself, but don't consider that 2nd hand smoke is worse for the people around you (no filters and no built-up tolerance). People here have been trying to educate you on the non-financial costs of your decisions, and you've been blowing it off with "I don't care what others think".

    Practice what you preach and recognize that upfront costs aren't the full picture.
    Aug 15 05:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Tesla Is Poised To Leave Its Competition In The Dust [View article]
    tftf,

    "AESC (Nissan) already has capacities to produce over 250k smaller EV batteries per year today in their three plants."

    Those are 24KWh batteries. So all 3 plants combined can only produce 6GWh of batteries. If Nissan goes through with their 200-mile EV in 2017, those same 3 factories would only be able to supply 70,000-90,000 long-range EV's (depending on how much battery each EV needs). The number of cars supplied # is dubious. The KWh (or GWh) capacity is more relevant.

    Unless someone is building additional battery factories on the same scale, they will all be surpassed.
    Aug 15 04:58 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Tesla Is Poised To Leave Its Competition In The Dust [View article]
    valueseeker,

    "Tesla depreciates $1/mile.
    Honda Accord PHEV depreciates $0.20/mile"

    You're confusing depreciation for Tesla's used car sale pricing for ??? (where did you get that $0.20/mile figure anyway? - edit.). At $1/mile, a model S85 ($83k) would be free before it's 8y/unlimited miles warranty was even over. It doesn't take any brain cells to see how ridiculous that claim is.

    edit: figured it out. It's because of the lower starting price of the accord. The depreciation of an S-class should be comparable, because it has a similar starting price.
    Aug 15 02:07 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Tesla Is Poised To Leave Its Competition In The Dust [View article]
    chip,

    Drivers who have experienced single-gear electric drivetrains will NEVER (at least above 90%) go back to ICE's nor hybrids (EREV's excluded). The more who try it, the smaller the pool of potential customers for hybrid vehicles.
    Aug 15 12:55 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla, Fairest Welfare Queen Of All, Cracks The Whip [View article]
    fiwiki,

    I counter your opinion piece with my own: http://bit.ly/1pPKT8R

    What isn't up for debate is the fact that Germany is on its way to being powered by 100% renewable energy (solar, wind, hydro, geothermal, etc). I know you don't care about what other people think, but at least knowing about it would help your portfolio.
    Aug 14 02:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla, Fairest Welfare Queen Of All, Cracks The Whip [View article]
    solucky,

    This is what I don't understand about you. You're german; your country wants a renewable energy infrastructure; you're well aware of the pollution from ICE's, yet you downplay the EV market potential of TSLA?

    I understand the point about the model S & X being expensive, but what of the model 3? The car that currently only Nissan and GM have any intention of wanting to compete against directly?
    Aug 14 02:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Rockets, QTR Takes A Victory Lap For Longs [View article]
    tool,

    1) We don't know the timing of the financing vs. delivery, so can't comment there.

    2) 1000 in q1, 1000 in q2, 1200 in q3. Where are you getting 4600?

    3) I've pointed you to the page numbers on the 10-Q report. If you can't even follow after that, then you're not making an effort to clear up any confusion.
    Aug 14 09:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla, Fairest Welfare Queen Of All, Cracks The Whip [View article]
    zelaza,

    And your battery is how old and at what percentage of charge before the swelling occured? If it's closer to the 25% mark than the 70% mark, your data point confirms my assessment.
    Aug 13 06:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla, Fairest Welfare Queen Of All, Cracks The Whip [View article]
    unlike Lead-Acid, in Li-Ion, below 70% capacity isn't unusable. Can you continue using your cell phone after it only lasts 7 hrs on a charge instead of the 10 hrs it did before? How about your laptop battery at 3 hrs of runtime instead of 4hrs?

    Many people keep their batteries until it holds only 25% of its original charge (less so for phone users @ ~50%). Unless you swap out your batteries at the 70% mark, you're being a hypocrite.
    Aug 13 05:03 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla - Free Valuation Model, Notes On Guaranteed Buybacks [View article]
    solucky,

    1000 packs would be good for 6000 10KWh batteries. Granted that's not very much, but it's something to work with until more are available from lease returns or GF.
    Aug 13 03:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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