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  • GM's Ignition Vs. Tesla's Titanium And 'Befuddling' Peak Deliveries [View article]
    I added to my position. The only way this market correction will last longer is if housing slows and unemployment rises again.
    Apr 15 01:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GM's Ignition Vs. Tesla's Titanium And 'Befuddling' Peak Deliveries [View article]
    chipdoctor,

    Sid never considered a model S. It's always been a model E. He and I both leased a Leaf waiting for the model E. Stop setting up straw-man arguments. Here's my rationale: http://seekingalpha.co...

    But others have cited that 15% of the model S buyers actually were formerlly prius buyers. Not the same argument.
    Apr 13 11:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GM's Ignition Vs. Tesla's Titanium And 'Befuddling' Peak Deliveries [View article]
    bailout.

    You don't seem to understand the significance of the difference between GAAP and non-GAAP financials.

    Let me make it simple. If they were suffering from losses, why did Tesla have $50million more in their balance sheet in Q4 vs. Q3? http://bit.ly/1g80Nob

    They didn't sell any ZEV credits, nor initiated any funding rounds. They only sold 6900 cars at a profit. Wake up and stop believing what other people tell you about Tesla's "losses"
    Apr 9 04:03 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Tesla's Gigafactory Becoming A Gigafarce? [View article]
    fgrindle,

    You knew none of this before being a tesla bear?! Talk about NOT doing your due diligence! I'm pretty sure most of the musketeers knew about Musk and his projects before the cnbc article came out.

    Why do you think he has fanbois?

    What we didn't know was that Talula Riley had apparently gotten back together with Musk after their divorce and is the co-driver for their cross-country spring break road trip.
    Apr 8 02:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Needs To Capture 14% U.S. Market Share To Justify Valuation [View article]
    bailout.

    You do understand that Tesla can use those Level 2 chargers in addition to their own superchargers right? Their owners simply don't have to use them, because they cost more than charging at home.
    Apr 8 01:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Needs To Capture 14% U.S. Market Share To Justify Valuation [View article]
    chipdoctor,

    From your reply, I can only assume that you understand the technology, but don't really understand what it means to live with it. No one I've spoken with would ever consider trading their EV for an ICE. Maybe it's just the people I associate with?

    As for your reply to Dave_M, I think you might have missed quite a few details in the industry. The 18650 cells that Tesla uses has a 1 in 10 million to 1 in 40 million chance of catastrophic failure, according to John Petersen (http://seekingalpha.co...). But the Tesla battery pack is designed to isolate single cell failures and keep them from cascading to the other cells. Which is why we haven't heard of any self-immolating Tesla's yet (like how ferrari, jeep, or lamborghini self-ignite).

    As for sudden acceleration lawsuits, Tesla has been sued, but fortunately, they have the telemetry to show which pedals were pressed: http://bit.ly/1hhQGSP

    Toyota's and Audi's sudden acceleration issues are also more likely to be the results of driver error, but they simply got burned without the data to back up that position - blaming software is just convenient. Hopefully with brake-override being designed into all cars, we shouldn't hear about these lawsuits anymore.
    Apr 6 05:16 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Norway loves the Model S [View news story]
    chipdoctor,

    I take you that you still think a 30hp onboard generator is still sufficient for the job of extending a plug-in hybrid's range?

    If that's the case, allow me one more perspective. The i3 has a relatively tiny 3 gallon fuel tank to extend its range by only 80 miles. Most people seem to want ~300 miles of range. That would mean that you'll need at least a 7 gallon tank for your range extender. How safe is it to lug around 7 gallon of a flame accelerant every day regardless of whether or not you need it? With my leaf, I've never had to worry about whether or not an electrical short would start a fire that would sever a fuel line.
    Apr 6 04:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Norway loves the Model S [View news story]
    cparmerlee.

    Crawling up the hill at 44mph isn't screaming up by any stretch of the imagination. The video reviewer started at 75mph, and lost 31mph by the time they summited. And if they started at 37mph, they still lost 17mph before reaching the top. That's clear proof that the generator couldn't provide enough watts to sufficiently power the electric motor.

    Starting the gas extender early in anticipation of a hill climb, although prudent, is not "convenient". And if the US variant of the i3 is any indication, you might not get the choice of when to start the extender either, which would inversely be convenient, but not prudent.

    I know you disagree, but I don't think the general public is willing to put up with hassles of an undersized range extender. I think they'd prefer a larger battery in place of that range extender.
    Apr 4 03:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Needs To Capture 14% U.S. Market Share To Justify Valuation [View article]
    chipdoctor.

    Once you go full EV, you'll never go back. Live with it for a week, and you'll understand. And I drive a leaf!! The model E is what I'm pinning for.
    Apr 3 04:56 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Norway loves the Model S [View news story]
    chipdoctor,

    While I applaud your perspective from a different angle, it caused a huge error in your calculations.

    aerodynamic drag increases as a square of velocity, so going from 58mph to 65mph (highway speed) isn't going to take only 15% more power, it'll be more like 30%. Throw in the hills, and you'll need WAY more than that.

    As a real-life cross-check, the BMW i3's motorcycle engine was "optimized" for the exact role that you're thinking about (25kw 647cc ... ~33.5HP), and that engine could NOT produce enough electricity to get the car uphill. And that's for a car weighing "only" 2900 lbs. With gravity working against you going uphill, more weight = more power from the engine.

    As for the power generation, what's your source? The EIA shows only 11 Billion KWhr per day: http://1.usa.gov/MRWMnL

    10^3 difference. There must've been another mistake somewhere, because if we now take the same 40GW of capacity @ 5hrs /day, we'll get 200 GWhr / day, or 0.2 billion KWhr per day. So it's still small, but is now 2% instead of 1%.

    And you have to remember that it's all cumulative. If new capacity is added at the same rate (~20GW / year, without any new resource input), we'll be at 10% within 8 years.

    The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.
    Apr 3 03:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • We Have March Numbers For Tesla And A Prediction For The First Quarter [View article]
    hmmm, considering that it takes a month to slow-boat those norwegian cars. I'd say that they were built and shipped back in February, back when it wasn't exactly clear what the quarter's deliveries were going to be. To claim that factory delivery was "rushed" to one country to make the numbers is claiming malice where efficiency is a MUCH better explanation. Especially since they didn't need that many sales to make the number anyway.

    With US customer wait times at about 6-9 weeks, and rest of the world deliveries as being much longer, by the time of the conference call, why is there ANY doubt to management's next quarter projections? I can understand skepticism of year-end projections, but the quarter's expectations are pretty much a done deal by the time of earnings.

    How ever much they beat the quarter is the number of additional cars they were able to produce before the quarter ended.

    During the q4 conf call. Elon stated that they're going to produce 7100 in q1. Considering that they'll need a month to ship stuff on boat, you can expect that over 2300 is the minimum for q2's international deliveries. Add that to the 3800 "plateaued" domestic sales, and you're looking at 6100 as the minimum for q2 numbers. How much higher than that will depend on how many are sold in Europe and china in April & May. Looks pretty set for 7100 in q2.

    Q3 (when Panasonic's new factory delivers the batteries) will prove Mr. Santo's peak demand theory wrong, or I will publicly eat crow.
    Apr 3 02:21 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Needs To Capture 14% U.S. Market Share To Justify Valuation [View article]
    16b instead of 23b still doesn't change the fact that the author is comparing products from completely different ends of the spectrum. In which case, instead of 1750%, Porsche would need to increase sales by "only" 1200% to justify their market cap. This article's FUD is laughable.
    Apr 3 10:57 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Norway loves the Model S [View news story]
    cparmerlee,

    The point of i3 review that I linked to, wasn't about the efficiency of its motorcycle engine, but about the rattling noise it produces when it's turned on, and how it doesn't produce enough power to go uphill on a mountain. It's barely enough to drive at highway speeds on level ground. The Volt with it's larger engine does NOT have this problem, which simply proves that you'll need at least a 4 cyclinder engine.

    When going uphill, weight IS an issue, so your gas extender WILL need to be bigger if the battery size increases.
    Apr 3 04:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Norway loves the Model S [View news story]
    renewable investor.

    "What happens when the sun goes down?" China's also the home to the largest hydro power plant in the world, and their wind farms are also growing nicely.

    Besides, look for Dan Fichana's comments about baseload power plants, especially coal baseload power. There's no "firing up". They've been there producing power all this time, as they're most efficient when operating continuously regardless of grid load.
    Apr 3 04:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Norway loves the Model S [View news story]
    cparmerlee,

    The i3 has that small engine, and the result isn't exactly a bed of roses: http://bit.ly/1k0lU2V

    The volt's 4 cylinder range extender is sized appropriately, but has that heavy engine that you claim isn't needed. And that's to drive a car with only a 16kwh battery. Increase the battery size, and the gas extender will need to be bigger to drive it.

    Reducing the battery weight is the ultimate solution, not the added complexity of always carrying a gasoline generator.
    Apr 2 06:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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