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  • Warranty Trend For The Model S
       Dec-14Sep-14Jun-14Mar-14Dec-13Sep-13Jun-13Mar-13
    Accrued warranty-beginning of period11373584371719325318253722368772406113013
    Warranty costs incurred10153-11179-9271-9300-8060-6392-1601-3107
    Changes in liability for pre-existing warranties, including expirations-56711460915418120-1012248783174 
    Provision for warranty3113225934201691993017642183591124414156
    Accrued warranty - end of period129043113735843717193253182537223687824062
    sales98347785757964576900550051504900

    An interesting detail is noticed from looking at historical data ... the warranty costs follow the number of cars sold rather than the number of cars on the road.

    What that indicates is that Tesla is working through QC issues that the service center then takes care of. But once resolved, the cars are "fixed" generally not to return for further service. Let's see in Q3 is the trend continues?

    Update (Apr 2015): For the first time, warranty costs actually decreased despite increased quarterly sales. No wonder no one's been harping about the "drivetrain failures" anymore.

    Disclosure: The author is long TSLA.

    Tags: TSLA
    Aug 16 8:57 PM | Link | Comment!
  • ... Death Kneel Of The Anti-EV Argument

    For the longest time, it was very difficult trying to convince anti-EV folks that BEV's were actually better than the best hybrids. Especially when over 1/3 of the nations power grid was running on coal.

    And then this week, the supreme court made a pivotal ruling:

    www.nytimes.com/2014/04/30/us/politics/s...

    The primary counter that EV supporters had against the coal argument was that it could be cleaned up. Now that the EPA has the authority, we can actually see a potential timeline for this clean up to occur.

    It's no longer dreaming from the pro-EV crowd. The burden of proof is now shifted.

    As for China. Forbes says that they're banning new coal power plant production for 2014: www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2.../

    combine this with thir goal of 14GW of installed solar in 2014, and it's pretty convincing that China's greening their power. What's also interesting is the same Forbes article shows china shooting for 50GW of nuclear power capacity by 2017. If the current growth rate of solar in China continues, they'll have (before 2012 - 2GW, 2013 - 12GW, 2014 - 14GW, 2015 - 15GW, 2016 - 16GW, 2017 - 17GW) 76GW of solar power capacity by 2017!!

    A TSLA bear once said, "there'd be so much pollution from all the extra coal plants to power those EV's"!! To which I ran the numbers and found that if you replaced the 200 million existing ICE's in china with EV's, and assuming a 12k/year driving pattern (assuming 333wh/mile or 3 miles/kwh), then you'd simply need 4000 kwh/year/car. Or about 800T kwh/year. Every GW of a solar power plant (assuming avg of 5hrs of power production / day) produces 25M kwh / day or 9125M kwh / year. That would mean needing only 1100GW of installed solar power capacity to power ALL of the miles driven by those 200 million cars by sunlight alone (not renewable energy in general). We obviously still have a long way to go, but the path is clear.

    Disclosure: I am long TSLA.

    Tags: TSLA, KNDI, 1211, NSANY
    Apr 30 10:40 AM | Link | Comment!
  • The Ramifications Of NHTSA's Decision On Tesla

    Amazingly, after the recent NHTSA decision regarding Tesla's battery fires, everyone's only focused on whether or not Tesla's actions should be called a recall.

    But if you read the NHTSA's final report (www-odi.nhtsa.dot.gov/owners/SearchResul...), in the middle of their last paragraph: "ODI believes impacts with road debris are normal and foreseeable"

    Wait a minute!! Impacts with road debris are normal and foreseeable?! Are they implying that any vehicle should NOT catch on fire after impacting road debris?

    Does this mean that every ICE will need to have some sort of under vehicle armor kit installed now?

    www.siegfriedandjensen.com/blog/road-deb...

    That should balance the price differential between EV's vs. ICE's, as every new car will need to have some sort of road debris protection to prevent damage into the passenger cell, as well as any fuel lines.

    Disclosure: I am long TSLA.

    Tags: TSLA
    Mar 30 12:24 PM | Link | 1 Comment
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