Manny Otero

8 Comments

    • Coach Beats Expectations; Earnings Up 19% [view article]
      In general, the demographic purchasing Coach bags is not likely to be the demographic most affected by food and fuel prices. Furthermore, Coach is absolutely a global player. I live in Copenhagen, Denmark, and with the strong Euro I can tell you that fashion is doing very well. Furthermore, the growing middle cass in China, India, and Brazil, would suggest Coach has excellent prospects.

      May 09 03:53 AM
    • What's Behind Force Protection's Significant Share Price Drop? [view article]
      Dear All,

      Again, thanks for the ongoing comments and discussions. I'm very happy that my opinion piece has generated this response. Voyager, let me just reply that I don't think you should join the class action against FRPT. Of course, I am biased and long on FRPT, so I am not objective. But, if I can offer you my honest assessment I do not think these class action suits will materialize into anything significant. First, FRPT has insurance against such claims, and it's not clearly obvious that there has been any intentional deceit on the part of FRPT management. It's true that there accounting has been at issue, but I expect them to restate very shortly. Furthermore, they have just announced a conference call for next week to address the various issues surrounding the company. At least they're finally issuing some type of press to address shareholder concerns.

      Based on what they say next week, you can then decide whether to join. That's my opinion.

      Lastly, thank you for your service to your nation. My wife is currently serving in Iraq/Afghanistan as a Weapons Systems Officer aboard the B1-bomber, in the USAF. I understand the sacrifice of family to military service, first-hand.       Mar 19 12:33 PM
    • What's Behind Force Protection's Significant Share Price Drop? [view article]
      Dear Readers,

      Thanks tremendously for all the feedback, and I appreciate your analysis and commentary. I would just like to respond to Engrkenn who suggested that in fact the BAE product design is far superior to Force Protection's technology and design. Could you please provide the following data:

      1. How many BAE vehicles have seen real combat, in excess of 1 year, and have been repeatedly challenged, either with conventional bombs or non-conventional IEDs?

      2. What is the personnel survival right of the above data, assuming it is statistically significant?

      3. Similarly, what is the vehicle survival rate?

      4. What are the specific product design features that you feel make BAE a superior product? What is the cost of a BAE MRAP vs a Force Protection MRAP?

      I'm sorry sir, but to say that the technology is superior, without relevant data to back it up, is in correct. Now, it's absolutely true that BAE has a large manufacturing capacity than Force Protection - no doubt. However, Force Protection had numerous mechanisms in place, including internal expansion and a partnership with General Dynamics, that would have facilitated expansion. Furthermore, Force Protection has always said it was open to further collaborations should the demand require it. As I have stated, the issue here is that DoD failed to provide the motivations - orders.

      Thank you for your comments,
      Manny

       Mar 18 03:03 PM
    • Is Oil Overpriced at $105/Barrel? [view article]
      Thank you for this interesting and informative article regarding your perspective of the relationship between the increasing price of crude, and the subsequent decline of the dollar's value. While your analysis is offers on perspective, it fails to consider the inherent globalization of the world economy. That is to say, it is incorrect to consider the US economy isolated from the major world economies, which I believe we could classify as Europe, Brazil, India, China, Japan, and Russia (I would not lump them in with Europe, although socio-politically and geographically, they are). Should the US economy fall into continued recession or depression, world economies would also significant suffer, causing depreciation in their currencies. This creates a complex regulatory network, where economics forces will continue to create balance.

      In short, the rising increase of oil, and the depreciation of the dollar, while causing short-term economic recession in the US, will serve as market forces to cool world economies. It has been demonstrated many times in history, that when this economic condition arises, it is those countries that increase productivity, primarily through innovation, that will pervail. I have no doubt that we continue to lead the world in innovation, and no country in history has had the ramp in productivity, normalized for GDP, that we have had.

      So, while you can paint a fairly dark picture, and ultimately history my judge you to be correct, I respectfully disagree. Market forces, more than ever given our gloabalization are in effect, and will normalize the turbulence we're now experiencing. In practical terms, what I am saying, is that while oil surpasses $106/barrel, and the dollars hits all time lows against the Euro, those countries that use Euros will start to see their productivity decline, because they're so inherently tied to the US, and other markets. This decline will cause a rebound in the US dollar.

      Believe in free market capitalism - it has worked, and continues to work.

      -Manny Otero       Mar 09 08:13 AM
    • AT&T "You Will" [view article]
      Thank you for the interesting perspective and article. While you may be right that AT&T as a company did not manufacture, sell, commercialize, or distribute much of the technology you are referring too, I'm afraid that this is very different from "developed". I am a research engineer by training from MIT, and virtually every device you have mentioned on this list has technology (verifiable by patent inquiries) that in some form or another was derived from the pioneering work of early AT&T electrical engineers, scientists, and technologists. In fact, the contribution that AT&T, not to mention the many companies that it has merged with, derived from, or morphed in one way or another, is often underestimated.

      So, while I agree with you that AT&T perhaps was not able to transform scientific achievement into products that they sell to the masses, one should be careful to simply disregard their contribution. Unfortunately, this is true with many corporate research centers of excellence....

      Thanks again,
      Manny       Aug 28 09:31 AM
    • Force Protection Volatility Presents Unique Buying Opportunity [view article]
      Hi Turley,

      Thank you for the reply and your commentary. You've touched upon quite a few issues, and for the most part I agree. However, I do think that FRPT has been able to ramp up their manufacturing capacity quite nicely, and believe this ramp up continues. It's important to realize that not all MRAP vehicles are created equally, and the manufacturing of these vehicles is quite challenging based upon the specifications outlined. If FRPT is taking longer to produce a single vehicle, one needs to consider is this a question of manufacturing capacity, technique, or is the price you pay for a higher quality vehicle. I agree that speed of deployment of these vehicles is of the essence, particularly with the massive political pressure in Washington; however, I also have to hope that there is some push-back at the Pentagon to ensure that the right resources, with adequate quality-control, are procured.

      As for PIPE deal, I agree that there was likely some significant negative pressure on the stock from the resulting short interest. However, do keep in mind that those involved in the PIPE deal are likely looking for a larger return that selling FRPT in the $15 range, which appears to be a decent support level. I think during August you'll continue to see pressure on the stock; however, this will be the result of traders and not investors. Investors, particularly institutions, I suspect are filling their stock orders and positioning themselves for 4Q07 and 2008, which look to be spectacular time frames for FRPT.

      However, I also try to be objective. I am not very pleased with management's response to the recent price decline. I think they need to do a much better job of managing expectations, and although I realize their first priority is to ensure the strength of FRPT fundamentals (earnings, profits, growth, efficiency), I also believe that as officers of a publicly traded company they need to also manage their shareholders. I believe the public relations department of FRPT should have by now issued some press release in response to the contracts that have been awarded acknowledging that while they're disappointed they believe they have a formula for success, and describe that formula in detail. I also think they could do a much better job of pushing back on Congress and the Pentagon, and challenging them why they're not purchasing the best technically produced vehicle. Again, they shouldn't over-do it, but some concise and clear statements are warranted.

      In any case, thank you for the response to my article.

      Cheers,
      Manny       Aug 09 02:26 AM
    • Chavez's Recent Statement Positive For Crystallex [view article]
      Dear Friend,

      Thanks very much for your reply, and I appreciate your analysis and more in-depth look to my statement very much. In no way would I ever take such a reply personally, and this is exactly the type of further refined analysis and debate I was hoping for.

      All of the points on your post are absolutely correct, and I don't think we necessarily disagree -certainly not on the facts. For example, it is true that I am making the assumption that when President Chavez referred to Las Cristinas he was equating this with Crystallex. It is absolutely correct that this is my belief and interpretation, and there was no secondary source that I am aware of. But I guess I would ask, is this really a poor assumption? Who is the largest mining operator of Las Cristinas at the moment? Who has received the most, both local and international press related to mining of Las Cristinas? Therefore, although he did not specifically say Crystallex, when he refers to the mining industry of the Las Cristinas, I would like to suggest that Crystallex is what he is referring to.

      A lot of my post however was based on interpretation; however, I believe that is what makes for smart investment. If we consider Crystallex a speculative play, which I absolutely do, then I believe that we obliged as investors or traders, both short and long, to speculate based on facts and interpretation of those facts. I do speculate that the statements made by President Chavez do support the hypothesis that VZ is working diligently with Crystallex to develop a fruitful relationship where both will be prosperous. I also believe that these discussions are now at the highest level of government, which is a very good sign. Given your much more extensive experience in the mining industry, I think you would agree that it is far easier and faster to simply reject a permit. The fact that the process has taken this long I think should also be considered a positive.

      With that said, thank you again for you comments, your well wishes, and I appreciate you making me realize that I should take more time to carefully explain my thoughts, with precision and accuracy in wording being key.

      Best wishes,
      Manny       Jun 08 02:04 PM
    • Chavez's Recent Statement Positive For Crystallex [view article]
      Thank you for the post. I am long KRY, owning 4000 shares. I am a very small-scale personal investor, interested in learning more about equity trading, and have sold and purchased KRY over the past 6 months, starting at an entry position of $2.70. Thanks again. Jun 08 06:51 AM
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