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Christopher Clay
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Born in rural West Virginia; I left the state for college. I studied accounting and finance. After a time doing tax returns and various other accounting work I realized that I had a gift for understanding business. My first stock recommendation from college went up 1,200%+ when a $7 stock... More
My company:
Worldview Investing
My blog:
Worldview Investing
My book:
Worldview Investing: A Foundational Approach to Earning Above Average Returns
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  • Money Talk
    Let’s talk money. My focus is usually on investing and earning above average returns.   Why? Because investing hard earned resources for the future is the action of a prudent and wise person. I’m in good company with this philosophy; just read the parable of the talents which Jesus told his disciples. Saving a little today for a better tomorrow! But this article is not going to focus on investing; it’s going to focus on two other critical areas for prudent and wise money management. I know I’m not going to win any awards here for saying what needs to be said, but if you are reading this article, if you’ve come to this site for good ideas, I have to give it to you straight.   Before investing, you must make sure you have planned for the unexpected.
    You must make sure that you’ve got insurance. This is, of course, unless ALL (100%) of your financial goals are met.   If all your financial goals are 100% met , including your children’s college savings, your retirement fund, a health care and long-term care fund, and you have established and fully funded any and all legacy trust type funds, then maybe, just maybe, you might not need insurance! 
    I’m going to keep it short and sweet; find a mutual insurance company and give them a call. If you have insurance and aren’t with a mutual company, switch. What is a mutual insurance company? Simply, it is a company in which the insurance policyholders are its owners (i.e. NOT a stock company).   Why is this important? When you purchase insurance, you are purchasing it for life, and generally in this country we live for 80+ years. Therefore, we want an insurance company that will be there 50+ years from now. There are a couple companies that have been around for over 150+ years, yes that’s right, and paying claims in the civil war! These long lasting mutual companies are exactly what you are seeking. The New York Life Company and Northwestern Mutual are the highest rated insurance and financial companies in the world and are good places to start looking. They’ve been around for so long because as mutual companies their values and mission are aligned with policy holders with 50+ year goals, and not stockholders with quarterly and yearly goals. With over 1,000 life insurance companies, New York Life sold one out of every ten policies sold in the U.S. in 2009!
    One final world on the subject; perhaps you think you aren’t buying insurance for life. If you know 100% without a doubt that you’ll hit all your financial, life, and legacy goals without getting sick, disabled or dying, then maybe you’ll share your secret crystal ball with me because a lot of people die before age 65 and something like 33% of people become disabled before 65.   As I said, this article is for the wise and prudent. Don’t just buy term insurance, which should be called short term insurance, and gamble your life goals on your ability to know the time of your death and health changes.  Don’t buy insurance from a stock market company and place your life goals at the whims of the U.S. stock market. Your choice and I have to give it to you straight.
    Now let’s switch gears. You’ve taken care of the insurance bit and that provided the safety net for your life goals, if you become disabled, sick or die your goals will still be met.   The next issue is savings. It doesn’t do much good if you are investing your money and your car breaks down and you have to liquidate an investment at a loss to fix a carburetor. Perhaps even worse, what if you lose your job? How long would you be able to survive without liquidating your investments? Savings are critical!
    This is where things get very interesting and I have some different ideas! Where and how are you going to save? The best savings rate in the country at the time of this writing was 1.35% and that is NOT saving.   I’m not even sure how it can legally be called a savings account because it seems like false advertising to me. Have you seen what has been happening to energy costs and food costs? What happens when America has to start printing another trillion dollars a year just to pay interest on our debt? Yep, BIG time inflation. The fact is that inflation is already here and you need a savings vehicle that won’t get killed by the dollars demise. 
    There are a couple of solutions. First, foreign savings accounts and/or foreign CD’s are an easy and low risk solution. There are a lot of options here. If you are interested in specific recommendations and instructions on how to do this, visit me at   Many foreign depository accounts in stable, economically viable, fiscally responsible nations are earning interest at multiples of U.S. accounts. Even more importantly, these accounts are not denominated in dollars. I particularly like the Australian dollar, the Singaporean dollar and the Swiss franc. Think this is hard to do? Guess again.   Think this is high risk? Guess again.
    The second solution, and probably the most important solutions are gold and silver. I’m not a gold bug. I don’t sell gold.  I do not earning a commission; like I said earlier in this article, “I have to give it to you straight.”   THE currency for the entire history of the world has been and will again be gold. 
    Gold and silver are precious (rare) metal used for coinage, art and jewelry since the very beginning of recorded history, dating back as far as the fourth century B.C. Some people say that gold is not a currency; to argue this is to say that Richard Nixon was a visionary in removing us from the Bretton Woods system of international finance, by removing the ability of dollar holders to convert their dollars to gold.   He did this in 1971. For thousands of years of history gold currency was the reality and we are now in a 40 year blip.   Personally, I don’t think Nixon’s move was all that great. I would prefer to lean on the side of thousands of years of history versus 40 years of American printing presses.
    Maybe we won’t ever go back to a gold standard. Maybe I’m wrong, maybe I have no idea what I’m talking about. Perhaps the World Bank President Robert Zoellick (, Retired Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan (, the nation of Russia ( ) , the nation of China (, and various others all have no idea what they are talking about. My advice is to be prudent and wise and don’t just lose money because some banker told you the least risky thing to do was to invest in a low interest savings account.   I started to invest in gold and silver bullion years ago, and am ahead of the game, but there is still time to take action today to preserve your wealth with a reliable savings plan. Visit for specific recommendations and ideas on how to accomplish this.
    Finally, once you have taken care of your safety net and your savings then it is time to really invest. There are a lot of spectacular investments out there in the market today that are for wonderful companies and that are priced just right for great returns. Visit today for access to lots of valuable ideas, recommendations, and resources.
    DISCLAIMER: Worldview Investing bases recommendations and forecasts on techniques, information and sources believed to be reliable in the past and cannot guarantee future accuracy and results. Worldview Investing is not liable for any investment decision you make, or action you take based upon information within this website, in email communications or other forms of information communication. Worldview Investing follows a strict Disclosure Policy and Privacy Policy to insure the HIGHEST levels of integrity.
    DISCLOSURE: Long Gold bullion, Silver bullion, and UGL (Pro Shares Ultra Gold ETF). Read our Disclosure Policy and Trading Policy.
    Mar 20 7:02 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Surviving and Thriving
    I remember reading Andy Grove’s book, “Only the Paranoid Survive”, in 1997-1998, and thinking, this guy is as hard driving as they come. Andy Grove was, at the time, the ultimate leader of Integrated Electronics Corporation, known as Intel for short. He led Intel through the 90’s and Intel became a powerhouse. 
    Since 2000, Intel has fallen out of favor with the market. In 2005 Intel promoted a new CEO, Paul Otellini. A 30 year Intel employee, he came directly from Intel’s ranks, and out of their core businesses of chipsets and microprocessor division. From a leadership perspective, it is usually good to see promotion from within with decades of knowledge and leadership development shaping a CEO. 
    Otellini inherited a business on the edge, but he had enough foresight to cut 10,500 employees in 2006 before the major market crash, saving cash which he then reinvested in acquiring other businesses during the economic struggles since2008. These difficult decisions bode well for the man’s leadership and ability to get things right. Currently, his biggest initiative is a three billion dollar facility under development in China, preparing for this century with expanded capacity and capabilities. 
    The stock, INTC, has been beaten down from wonder stock to a moderate performer from 2000-2005. The stock has further suffered during the current American recession. Today, we rate it a Best Buy.
    From our worldview analysis, Intel represents the genius in humankind. Intel facilitates mankind’s ability to communicate and work with data like virtually no other company in the world. As old paradigms of social, political and economic structures change the world, Intel will remain a core component, helping to process larger and larger amounts of data.   It is an investment in America, but also in China, as Intel lays the ground work for its Dalian, China three billion dollar facility.
    Intel has been growing equity, earnings per share, and free cash flow at increasing rates for years. My estimates place Intel’s growth rate at 15% for the coming years. It has averaged a PE of 38 for 10 years, but currently sits at a price-to-earnings ratio of only 10.86. Looking at the last 5 years, its PE has still averaged 17. The market is underpricing the value of Intel and I’m not alone in my opinion. Management at Intel is acquiring stock like crazy, increasing their holdings by 8% and not selling!
    The consensus projections of growth for Intel are lower than my growth projections at 11.3%.  I’ve used the more conservative analysts’ growth projection, as well as the more conservative 5 year PE valuations, to estimate a future stock price of $93.40 in 10 years. I expect and plan to make no less than 16% annual returns on my money. Intel pays a dividend of 3.32%, so we’d need capital appreciation of 12.68%. This places Intel at a solid and conservative valuation of $41.75. As of the writing of this article, the stock was priced at $21.86.   With a needed margin of safety on this particular stock of 17%, Intel has a 31% spread on its current price which makes it a best buy indeed! It is like buying a dollar of value for .52 cents. 
    DISCLAIMER: Worldview Investing bases recommendations and forecasts on techniques, information and sources believed to be reliable in the past and cannot guarantee future accuracy and results.  Worldview Investing is not liable for any investment decision you make, or action you take based upon information within this website, in email communications or other forms of information communication. Worldview Investing follows a strict Disclosure Policy and Privacy Policy to insure the HIGHEST levels of integrity.
    DISCLOSURE:  None.  Read our Disclosure Policy and Trading Policy.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
    Mar 16 3:18 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Stocks for the American Consumer
    There is a lot of gloom and doom out there today. However, these are solid companies, with strong growth, which are underpriced.   
    I first checked out these companies because of their products.   I have to admit they offer some wonderful innovative products.   I’m going to talk about two companies – Apple and the Boston Beer Company.
    Let’s start with beer. I love beer and when I say that I mean real beer! Not some watered down, tasteless beer, like Budweiser, Miller, or Coors, which all are virtually the same. I’m talking about beer made with style and passion - beer in which you can taste a region, culture, or idea.  
    For example, the Boston Beer (NYSE:SAM) companies Old Fezziwig Ale™, which has an extra hoppy taste, with a blend of Christmas spices, perfect for the cold winter months. I also like their Summer Ale, with a hint of lemon and a refreshing flavor for drinking while grilling out in the summer heat. While Samuel Adams is the core of the Boston Beer company’s beer brands, they make an award winning Latitude 48, Cherry Wheat Ale, or an Irish Red with sweet roasted hints of caramel and toffee. Cheers!
    Drinking aside, for our first wedding anniversary (that is your “paper wedding anniversary” for you guys who might not know) my wife bought me my first share of the Boston Beer company and I’ve been buying it ever since. The stock was around $42 dollars per share back then and it has more than doubled since that time, which their growth numbers justify. As fast as this company is growing, it’s still undervalued.  I’ve looked at 10-years of financial data, market and industry research, conducted serious amounts of taste testing, and done over 120 calculations to estimate valuation and growth for this company. Even with a major recession, the Boston Beer Company has marched onwards.   If the economy continues to recover, the government gets employment up, and the Fed keeps interest rates low, the American consumer will come back stronger and stronger. At this time, Boston Beer (SAM) is a Best Buy in my alternative portfolio at

    Let us dive into the fundamentals on The Boston Beer Company.  They are audited by Ernst and Young with a clean/unqualified opinion which is always a good start.  The are an easy to understand company with a simple consumer product that has been made for hundreds of years across the globe.  Competitively, they are a small player with a competitive advantage of taste and passion, making them nimble and quick responsponders to change, and making it difficult to switch.  They keep their products fresh in many ways but most importantly by increasing their control over the manufacturing process and offering various changing seasonal beverages.  Competitive advantage is their highest risk area.  Larger players like Miller, Coors, and Budwieser stay focused on mass market/mass produced products for now.  Management is very passionate, currently increasing insider ownship of the stock (most specifically there CFO) and Jim Koch the founder is as passionate a leader as they come. 

    Across the line from equity, EPS, sales, and free cash flow (with an exception) the company has been seeing stronger and stronger fundamental growth reaching into the double digits.  Recently they have been expanding their production capacity which is something we like to see but has dinged cash flow recently.  My growth projections come in at 26.7%.  Industry insiders and analysts are a little more aggressive with the mean estimate coming in at 27.4%.  As always I choose the most conservative estimate to reduce risk.  Valuation over the years has fluctuated my valuation range comes in at a high of 54.8 to a low of 30.2 as always I use the most conservative number in my PE calculations.  Today Earnings per share are at $2.21.  Applying the growth and valuation numbers out over a 10 year period give a future stock price os $561.55.  My personal discount rate/required ROI on any investment is 16% bringing the current valuation down to $147.66.  I think this stock is on the lower risk side as it is an easy to understand and read industry and have a required margin of safety for investment consideration of 17%.  I think this stock is a buy at anything priced under $122.56. 
    A second recommendation is Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL). Again I have my wife to thank.   Apple is an embodiment of pure American consumerism.   Absolutely entertaining, unique, well made, technological devices to make life more enjoyable is what Apple delivers. My wonderful wife and I were given an iPod Touch for Christmas to share. Well there wasn’t much sharing. After I hooked it up to our Wi-Fi access, my wife was hooked. She jams to music streamed over the internet as she cleans, plays Karaoke with the kids singing into the embedded microphone and recording their duets, plays video games, watches her favorite TV shows, streams HD movies, checks her email, reads articles, reads books, keeps her Facebook account updated, and probably balances the bank accounts, all from a tiny little pocket device.   I have yet to meet an iPhone user who isn’t as hooked to their iPhone as my wife is to her iPod.   She loves it so much that I’m getting her an iPad for our next wedding anniversary. I had briefly thought about trying out one of the new tablet PC’s coming out from various other device manufactures like Dell or Motorola.   Then Apple announced the iPad two, priced competitively, lighter, smaller, faster, with great battery life, and hundreds of already developed applications. I’m sticking with Apple.
    I’m a new mover into Apple. My analysis places Apple within my own buy window, but the market is catching up.   I currently have a 34% spread between price and value. My required margin of safety for this stock is on the high end of 3.0 (i.e. 30%). When Apple falls below my required margin of safety for this particular stock, I’ll be placing it on my hold list. In other words, there is a small and shrinking (4%) window to get in on a great stock with great potential. 

    The 4% window is arrived at by taking into account Apple's fundamental operations.  First, they have a clean Ernst and Young audit which is a requirement for my portfolio's.  They make a relatively simple to understand consumer gizmo although complex on the insides which they leverage through there iOS operating system and through being unique, innovative and often first moving.  Steve Jobs is one of the true visionaries of the information age.  However, there are certain concerns associated with Apple without Steve and those are legimate from Worldview Investings research it seems he has been doing a great job at building the next decades woth of innovators.  However, on the save side we have increased are needed margin of safety to 30% (i.e. risk rating of 3.0).

    Breaking down the last 10 years of financials shows us a picture of EXTRAORDINARY growth across equity, sales, EPS and cash flow all well into the double digits.  For a simple example over the last 10 years Apple's sales have gone from $25 million to over $14 billion!  Sales growth for the last five years has averaged 47%.  When I do a blended growth analysis my growth estimates come out to over 40%.   Industry insiders are more skeptical then me on this one and as always I take the most conservative number in this case their 16.4%.   Apple's PE has been all over the place my analysis places the PE range between 70.56 and 33.48 and I always take the lowest number for estimating future value.  Current earnings per share of $15.41 with a 16.4% growth rate and target valuation of 33.48 give us a 10 year projected stock valuation of $2,023.79 discounted back to the present value with my required rate of return of 16% gives us a current valuation of $532.16 subtract out our needed margin of safety and I say that Apple is a buy priced under $372.51.
    I looked at a lot of investments in the technology sector, including companies like Google, NVidia, and Microsoft to name a few that didn’t make my list. It turns out I just need to look in my wife’s pocket for the winning idea. 
    If you think the American consumer is rising from the ashes of the economic downturn of 2008, these investments will make masterful additions to any portfolio. At the end of the day though, even if the American consumer tumbles, these companies will survive and thrive in a new world. I continue to add to my position in these stocks when opportunities present themselves. Meanwhile, I keep my eyes on their numbers and listen to their management. 
    DISCLAIMER: Worldview Investing bases recommendations and forecasts on techniques, information and sources believed to be reliable in the past and cannot guarantee future accuracy and results. Worldview Investing is not liable for any investment decision you make, or action you take based upon information within this website, in email communications or other forms of information communication. Worldview Investing follows a strict Disclosure Policy and Privacy Policy to insure the HIGHEST levels of integrity.
    DISCLOSURE: Long SAM and AAPL. Read our Disclosure Policy and Trading Policy.

    Disclosure: I am long AAPL, SAM.
    Mar 15 9:02 PM | Link | Comment!
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