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  • 2014 Prediction #2: Apple Hits $650 A Share [View article]
    Good analysis--especially the new distribution deals. I agree that momentum plays a big role and will continue to in 2014. That said, what new products are in the works for AAPL? Will the 5S be what takes them to $650 autonomously?
    Dec 31, 2013. 09:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Is A Winner [View article]
    @Digital -

    You make some valid points; not every show is expected to be a hit and I fully understand that. If it were just a "math problem" then everyone would be able to solve it and all production would be a smash hit (I'm sure many networks are working night and day in attempting to do so).

    But I ask you - if their data mining meant absolutely nothing in creating original content, then why has not other network recreated Arrested Development? This goes against exactly what you have quoted from John Landgraf - “Data can only tell you what people have liked before..." Precisely! Arrested Development had an immense following for quite some time and the only thing their network managed to do was discontinue the series. Granted, there is no telling if the new episodes will be done well or if it will be a success, but as of now, with the knowledge I currently have over the excitement of this show coming back, I can only assume good things.

    Another major thing that you need to consider is that many people view $8 as a nominal cost in checking out a new, original series. Many of my friends have re-subscired to Netflix just to check out House of Cards. In fact, I believe that ultimately there will be an influx in repeat customers; viewers that were simply bored watching shows that come directly from TV.

    As for the bad shows, if Netflix has the ability to minimize the impact of the shows that will flop, e.g. Bad Samaritans, then more power to them! No one is expecting them to get it right 100% of the time. I would argue that TV networks miss out on this privilege because they don't have the ability to hide the prevalence of shows that never work out; ads are constantly being shoved down viewer's throats via commercials, sporting events, etc. It's all about minimizing the downside here.

    Ultimately, my reinvigoration over Netflix is mainly do to the fact that if their original series' do in fact pan out, it would provide a huge push in solidifying an exclusive, online "network". Is it still early? Sure. But I would say that they are starting off on the right foot and that's one of things I am looking for as an investor.
    Mar 28, 2013. 01:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Is A Winner [View article]
    @ forceOfHabit - Could be the case, and this is definitely a concern, but so far they have been able to prove otherwise. Only time will tell.
    Mar 28, 2013. 12:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Is A Winner [View article]
    PromptTrader

    Exactly my thoughts. I was letting everyone know about Netflix's amazing online platform about 5 years ago when the stock was at $50. It proceeded to reach $300 about 2 years later, which I missed out on. I am confident that this is my chance to get back on board, as I find myself, as well as many others, raving about House of Cards and the anticipation of Arrested Development. Might take some time, but when the price is right I'll be in for sure.

    The only risk I really see is Netflix's ability to continuously produce. Since their new shows come out all at one time (which after much deliberation, I believe is the proper approach), viewers tend to fly through all of the episodes in a weekend. This means that the company will have to grow fast, all the while producing great shows over and over again. Just a thought, but I'm bullish all the same!
    Mar 28, 2013. 10:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Is A Winner [View article]
    Great analysis here. One thing that was I wish was expanded on more, but was touched on a bit is Netflix's original, organic content. Netflix is just starting to produce original series' that many users have been buzzing about - House of Cards being the prime example. As the aurthor noted, Netflix has a huge upper hand in know what people want to see, so as long as the content is good the buzz will build and more people will subscribe. Anoter example of original content is the recreation of the cult hit, Arrested Development. Netflix is in the process of developing the series, which is driven off of observed demand from subscribers.

    My only concern is the price at which Netflix is currently trading. I would like to see it pull back some before I feel comfortable pulling the trigger on it. That being said, I feel comfortable waiting a bit, so that I can see their original series' develop before I jump in.

    PromptTrader - Any insight on their series' and how they will affect Netflix in the future?
    Mar 28, 2013. 10:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple's Threat Real In The Living Room? [View article]
    @ Jaded,

    How do you think loyal consumers will react to a new video game console? Microsoft, Playstation, and Nintendo all have very established consoles, with name brand titles attached to them.

    AAPL will have to have something quite different if they want to take loyal customers away from their current systems. This is not impossible, but it is difficult in my opinion.
    Feb 5, 2013. 03:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Board Of Directors At Sirius XM [View article]
    Unfortunately, I have not followed SIRI as much as I would have liked. What does Liberty plan on doing with SIRI?
    Jan 23, 2013. 11:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook: Peak Social Media Stock [View article]
    As part of the generation that was in college during the beginning of FB, I feel like I should add my thoughts here. FB simply is not a fad. Period. It is very different that the older competitors of its time, such as MySpace/Friendster/etc. They managed to make social media a necessity by making it exclusive, at least initially. This caused everyone to want to be on FB from the get go.

    As time went on the exclusivity faded and FB allowed everyone access. This did not deter anyone from using it, however. Whether it be ingenuity, or pure luck, FB took this risk and it worked. This showed that FB had already been ingrained into everyone's life. Even to this day it is one of the first websites that many of my friends still look at each day. This shows me that they have the ability to make major moves (yes this was considered major at the time, believe it or not) and can be successful doing it.

    That being said, and as everyone knows already, FB simply doesn't have a proper monetization platform at this time. I agree with the original poster in that this is a major issue. However, if FB can properly transition into other areas smoothly - such as the cell phone space - it will do well.

    It is over priced at the moment, and it may take some time, but FB has the insight to make strategic moves that benefit the company. As time goes on, it will adapt to make stock holders happy. This is the primary reason MySpace flopped!

    Believe me when I say that FB simply is not a fad. If you believe that is the case, you are wrong. It has been along for too long now and everyone in my generation uses it to some extent. Agreed, Pintrest and Twitter are very, very popular; but they do not impede directly upon what FB has to offer. If anything, they supplement FB by allowing for more posts and user hits!
    Jan 23, 2013. 10:58 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook: Peak Social Media Stock [View article]
    Yes. Please elaborate on this. As a member of this site I try to get as many different perspectives as possible from everyone else, and "100% wrong" doesn't help...
    Jan 23, 2013. 10:40 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Behaviorally, Fundamentally Attractive [View article]
    Better picture of Steve at the end!
    Jan 23, 2013. 10:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wal-Mart Dividend Growth Stock Analysis [View article]
    I have been heavily looking at picking up shares. Todd - do you think that WMT's current role in gun control/presumed scandle in Mexico could cause a short-term dip, so that it can be picked up for less?

    Additionally, I think WMT will have a great amount of growth with consumer electronics. As these get cheaper, WMT has the perfect pipeline and customer base to sell these.
    Jan 23, 2013. 09:13 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Must Change Your Strategy For 2013: Here's How... [View article]
    Good article. I've known for some time now that many of the factors mentioned have drastically altered the stock market. I am a firm believer in the need of an investor to adapt, so reading your ETF/closed ended fund strategy was a breath of fresh air.
    Jan 23, 2013. 08:18 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500: Why You Should Buy The Dip [View article]
    Agreed. The fed can only do so much in terms of fiscal policy. Some say that QE3 is bordering a liquidity trap already. Good point on what will happen if interest rates go the opposite way.
    Jan 23, 2013. 07:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Behaviorally, Fundamentally Attractive [View article]
    Really good article. I especially enjoyed the behavior finance portion of your analysis. Behavior finance is something that I strongly agree with, and I would like to learn a lot more about. It does seem to me that there has been a tremendous amount of overreaction with this stock, because there are so many risks/uncertainties with the company's direction. Overall, I'm long AAPL.
    Jan 22, 2013. 09:40 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Market Hero At The Crossroads [View article]
    @Derek - Thank you for the well written article. I think that you pose some good questions regarding the direction of Apple. As you had mentioned, Apple TV is a major one for me, as many people are demanding wireless streaming as their primary source of television. The major obstacle here is that there are numerous competitors - both direct and indirect - that allow a streamlined approach to online content.

    Some people touched on it above; we simply will not know what the future is for Apple until we witness it first hand. Personally, I've been a long-time believer that Jobs had an uncanny ability to not only identify inovative technologies, but convince consumers that they will be the next trend. Can Apple do this in the future without him? Only time will tell, really.
    Jan 18, 2013. 09:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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