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ConservativeOutperformer

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  • Noble Energy to buy Rosetta Resources for $2.1B [View news story]
    Yea, BAML was putting the value of this thing around $25 which I thought was short-sigthed.... It's probably worth more but I picked this thing up near the bottom so I'll make my money and move on.... I was thinking I could double or triple my money over a few years, but 50% in less than 6 months will work.

    Now, let's get these other big guys to buy out some of my dumpster dives......

    Good luck!
    May 12, 2015. 01:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: United-Guardian's Dividend Cut Raises Questions [View article]
    Pretty simple here.....

    Market cap around $85m, $10-11m in cash (not sure based on the press release, but should be close), earnings should be between $4-5m a year, very little to non-existent cap-ex. For a company no one knows about, with fantastic economics, doing the same thing for a very long time..... It looks like a buy.

    No reason to expect 30% a year here. But, with the S&P at 2100+ 10% a year should be seen as more than adequate. If the dividend gets back to .90c over the next year or 2, you just need the common to get back to $21 or roughly $100m market cap..... Doesn't seem un-reasonable.

    Good luck!
    Mar 24, 2015. 12:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Biglari The Next Berkshire? Think Again [View article]
    His conclusion is correct, and the title is spot on. Not sure what you guys are arguing..... BH is a buy? OK, they have a lot of investments not accounted for in the article. The title of this piece is, 'Is Biglari The Next Berkshire? Think Again' and it speaks to the risks in the shares.

    Anyone that has followed this guy for awhile can see the answer to the first question is no. That's the point of this article.... Warren Buffett has inspired lots of people to invest, like me, and my birthday is close to his too. Everyone jump aboard, iti's full steam ahead! Those were funny statements as the only similarities by the way, lol.....

    You guys remind me of the Aubrey McClendon backers when CHK was imploding. As soon as someone brought up the map collection (me), the minions were ready for WW3. Get the emotions out..... This company is full of turds waiting to be flushed.

    If you really want to look at holding companies to invest in try LUK.... There's a lot more value there.

    Good luck!
    Mar 16, 2015. 12:16 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons Why Undervalued PDC Energy Should Be Your Pick For The Downturn [View article]
    The first 2 guys get it...... this thing has skyrocketed. You missed your opportunity....

    Good luck!
    Feb 24, 2015. 08:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barron's: Whether crude moves up or down, best to avoid big oils [View news story]
    Well at least these guys only missed the first 30-50% in the smaller names.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Good luck!
    Feb 15, 2015. 10:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Oil Sector Stock I Dream About Owning One Day [View article]
    Ok, good info and I'm with you.... I was specifically thinking of the Rockies and the Utica, so again were on the same page..... I guess I'm a little more optimistic, and the company seems to be as well (although, it's their job to sell). I just look at where we were 5 years ago vs where we are today and think of what could still be out there.....

    Anyways, tough quarter here as I expected.... they did point to stabilization in the second half, so if you believe these guys it might be a good time to get in.... the economics are compelling......

    Good luck!
    Jan 28, 2015. 11:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Oil Sector Stock I Dream About Owning One Day [View article]
    I'm not sure why you think only the Permian will continue to see significant technology spending, why not in other places? You mentioned Argentina, which I thought of as soon as you referenced a slowdown (which also means you understand this company and it's potential market)..... To me, that highlights the worldwide potential when more shale discoveries show up and technological needs have to be met.

    I agree deepwater drilling will be challenged for the next few years and CLB will struggle to maintain their current trajectory (that is their most profitable patch). But, I still like their position going forward with the enormous amount of land plays developing in the next 3-5 years.

    It's an interesting dilemma really. Significant expansion of the overall rig count domestically is sure to dampen prices and subsequently new investment (for years potentially). But, CLB in turn lives off of increased spending for solutions when new investments are undertaken. Is this a case of, 'right company, right time' or can we expect them to continue providing drillers with the information they need? Can this business find success only in periods of significant Oil price expansion, or do they continue to thrive as prices head lower and companies look for higher EUR's and greater efficiencies?

    After reading through some filings and presentations of U.S. land E&P's, one area they cite as one they don't want to cut back on is technology....... I happen to think CLB will continue to be successful even in the face of declining prices, for awhile, but more deepwater project cancellations will challenge 2015.

    Anyways, Good luck!
    Jan 28, 2015. 04:06 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevron: The Crude Reality [View article]
    Another guy who missed the bottom and is telling everyone the price is going lower after it's already gone there... Which by the way makes no difference if the price of equities dealing in oil has already given you the opportunity to buy as if every company were going bankrupt.

    Names like PDCE are up 65% off their lows while Oil has declined $20 since. You won't see that price again.....

    There are still some bargains out there in small and mid cap companies. The last place anyone should look, or even worry about, is the large (huge) integrated oil companies. You already outperformed on the way down. Cycle into the next CVX.......

    Good luck!
    Jan 28, 2015. 12:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple beats estimates, guides in-line [View news story]
    This is the strange conundrum AAPL fans find themselves in. The illusion of a superior product (materials), with margins no other phone company can come close to. You can't have both. Either it is a superior product with superior materials, therefore higher cost, or a cheap product being sold at inflated prices due to an inflated 'story'. The financials tell the real story.....

    I remember when I bought AAPL back in 2008. It was a play on morons. Suckers falling for advertising. After I made a few hundred percent I unloaded thinking, 'there's no way so many people can be so stupid for so long'. Boy was I wrong....

    Here we are a few years later and people are still falling for it. It really is the greatest business model anyone has ever seen. Sell the cheapest product for the highest price and convince people they have to buy it with catchy advertising..... In 20 years I guess people will finally figure it out, and wonder how they fell for it for so long, but man. How can these AAPL fans not see what's really going on with the financials this company puts out? It's right in their face.. It's like the company is laughing at its customers, while they go out of their way to sell the product for them. And they're laughing all the way to the bank...... Except, these zealots just don't get it. It's really sad actually, lol.

    Good luck!
    Jan 27, 2015. 09:54 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Mobil: Slow But Steady, Value Erosion Is Underway [View article]
    Yep, edit my post to remove all the stuff that mattered and then pretend like you actually did that analysis in this article. Which you didn't.

    If you're going to write, please be good at investing/comparative analysis. And, above all, please be honest and admit when you made a mistake. It will help you in your investing......

    Good luck, you'll need it!
    Jan 21, 2015. 02:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Mobil: Slow But Steady, Value Erosion Is Underway [View article]
    Exactly right...... there is no comparison between the 2 companies unless you can specifically break out returns and costs from the production business only.... anyone that has followed xom knows there is far more to its business than E&P (although profits are heavily skewed to that segment).

    XOM has been spending for awhile now and these very questions about future probability have been raised by many (including myself). Ultimately, the next few years are telling as recent commentary from the CEO suggests output is a focus going forward. If these investments start to bear fruit then XOM should continue to outperform over the long term. I'm of the opinion that costs have risen quite a bit and they will have a hard time getting back to their economics of old. That's all the numbers tell us right now. Of course, with valuations in the gutter for a number of producers, acquisitions could play an important role for XOM.... The economics of any large producer will improve once absorbed by XOM, as their access to capital with a AAA rating and ability to leverage the midstream/downstream resources offered proves superior.... This could alter the forecast going forward for XOM quite positively.

    Anyways, good luck!
    Jan 21, 2015. 11:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Money Dries Up For Oil And Gas, Layoffs Spread, Write-Offs Start [View article]
    This article does a good job focusing on the facts. An important thing to note, however, is that certain names have separated themselves from the pack. Dare I say, bottomed.... The garbage companies continue lower, but the quality businesses have bounced from the bottom.

    This is a great time to be researching individual equities.....

    Good luck!
    Jan 18, 2015. 01:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Crash In Oil Prices Offers The Opportunity Of A Lifetime - I Beg To Differ [View article]
    If you have been riding it out in XOM and you believe long-term (like 5 years or more) that the price of oil will recover, sell your XOM and find a small/mid-cap name whose price has been hammered that has the financial ability to pull through. Spread the wealth and buy 5.....

    Yes, XOM has the best balance sheet and economics in the business. But, you already reaped the rewards for that fact with a small move to the downside in light of a massive sell-off in crude. It's not difficult for anyone to conclude that you will not participate in the upside by holding XOM from here, as you would a smaller operation.

    Instead of wasting time and words with multiple articles about XOM and 'the opportunity of a lifetime'....... Go find the next XOM with most of the entire sector down over 50%. There are juicy returns out there if you believe this sector will recover. That is the 'opportunity of a lifetime'......

    Good luck!
    Jan 13, 2015. 07:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Oil Plays Strength, Prices And Potential [View article]
    Another guy telling people where the price will go..... After it's already gone there. Where were all these experts 12 months ago? $10 Oil? lol

    The author brings up some interesting points that anyone following this space can see...

    Back in December, everything was being sold. Sell first, ask questions later. Since the lows, the quality names have bounced. The price of Brent/WTI has continued lower, but the prices of certain equities haven't...... Some of the quotations were obviously, 'too low'.

    While I would bet that lots of names continue lower, the prices of individual equities are displaying movements that indicate they've already hit their lows. The price of WTI is at least 20% lower than early December, and in some cases prices of individual companies are at least 20% higher. As I've mentioned in previous posts, people are confusing the drop in the price of Oil with the price of equities that do business in oil. To make matters worse, they are basing investment decisions on the price that they are not participating in (crude futures).

    If you believe long term that the price will recover and perform any level of 'mean reversion', picking a few companies today that aren't levered like crazy will do well...... If you are an individual with any combination of market experience and common sense, you can see prices of companies are a lot closer to the bottom than the top and now is a good time to get in. If you're buying and selling individual equities as a job or hobby it isn't too difficult to distinguish between companies that look better than others going forward, even in a challenging environment where prices don't recover right away.....

    It probably isn't the time to be a hero in a space that relies so heavily on one parameter, that historically swings violently, to achieve operating success. But when certain equities have moved 60% in a few months, that usually means there are attractive opportunities.... Unless of course, 'this time is different'.

    Good luck!
    Jan 13, 2015. 06:59 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2015 Outlook: Pain [View article]
    I've used that clubber Lang quote multiple times here, that was awesome......

    Very simply, I would expect the author has a good chance of being correct although any guess could be.... however, it's been awhile since I've seen so many attractive prices in individual equities. Plenty of businesses out there doing well selling for reasonable prices..... as another commenter mentioned, individual equity selection will prove to do very well this year as it did the last.

    Good luck!
    Dec 31, 2014. 10:51 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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