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TreyT

TreyT
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  • Devon Energy Shares Are Particularly Attractive Following Recent Correction [View article]
    I agree it's weird, the strategy is paying dividends, still a great buy at $75, with flat oil prices we'll see 95 within a year.
    Aug 13 02:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Devon Energy Shares Are Particularly Attractive Following Recent Correction [View article]
    Fracking is expensive but efficiencies in the process, equipment, rigs, etc are keeping costs in check.

    Oil definitely is well supplied but it doesn't take much to tip that balance. Shocks to the downside by more than $15 are more likely than upside shocks IMO. But long-term DVN is a solid buy at 75 bucks.

    Perhaps we see the market burp and DVN drops to 55 or 60 again? Possible...but if the market stays relatively flat, DVN hits 95 within 12 mos.
    Aug 13 02:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stay Patient And Don't Jump Into ConocoPhillips Just Yet [View article]
    This is a good article, and on top of that you admit to a few errors yourself, most don't do that, instead they just cover their bums...

    Overall pretty good. I wouldn't put all my Conoco chips on the table at this point but I think it may well represent an opportunity if you're in this thing for awhile. I do agree some downside risk exists as it relates to domestic crude prices but I also believe their asset base has them better prepared than most to weather that storm domestically.

    Waiting for another few dollars to come off the price wouldn't be a bad deal but I'd probably be readying money on the sideline now and begin pouring it in 20% at a time as opportunities arise.

    I see this as a 100 dollar stock by end of 2015 barring some catastrophic price collapse.
    Aug 5 06:07 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Anadarko hits 52-week highs as takeover speculation swirls [View news story]
    You would hope SEC wouldn't allow such a move but the likely will.
    Jun 11 12:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Chesapeake Energy's Turnaround Might Fail [View article]
    Analysts expect gas prices to continue decreasing for the "long run"??? What do you consider long run? That's certainly possible through the summer...the long run looks flat to up depending on your definition of "long run".

    How does increasing electricity demand hurt Chesapeake? You say it puts pressure on gas prices, that's true, pressure in an UPWARD direction which helps CHK.

    Of course CHK is highly dependent on gas prices, they're one of the biggest gas producers in the nation. But they're also changing their production mix pretty rapidly given their size. They have rapidly increased their liquids production relative to gas and this bodes well for the organization. Capital discipline and continued push for production balance will likely serve the company well.

    They have great assets and can continue the de-levering process.

    This article is pretty weak...really weak actually.
    May 28 02:42 PM | 22 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Production Growth Is Slowing [View article]
    The same EIA that has been behind the curve for 10 years on predicting natural gas production is predicting flat lining supplies? Don't really care what EIA is thinking at this point...

    Lackluster injections? 105 BCF last week. 106 BCF this week.

    Price spikes are definitely possible with storage where it is. But we're adding to storage at a rapid clip and we're barely into injection season.

    As for the GOM the author should have done a bit more research. There are several big projects coming online in the GOM in 2015 and 2016 and COP among others is getting serious about the GOM again after 4 years of decreased activity.
    May 22 11:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Chesapeake Energy Is Heading To $32 [View article]
    No doubt Kim. But you have to realize those RY obligation issues arose under prior management. Definitely concerns but the organization is moving in the right direction. I don't own CHK because I also believe it's overpriced based on what I can see today. But I'm not negative on the company anymore.

    If I were in CHK I would hold.
    May 6 10:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Chesapeake Energy Is Heading To $32 [View article]
    I would suspect you'll see some reserve additions if the company continues to have really good driling results. Additionally, if natural gas prices stay in the 4.25+ range that should change reserve values materially and allow for significant reserves additions as things move forward. This will become even more evident as prices approach 4.75 to 5 sustained in the next 2 or 2.5 years.

    CHK is on the right track. Impressive changes taking place and I believe in the current management team.
    May 6 09:41 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Toys 'R' Us Has Major Problems [View article]
    My wife and I went into Toys R Us just a few months ago as we looked for my daughters birthday gift. The experience overall was abhorrent. The parking lot was dirty and had trash everywhere. Then we went inside and the floor was chiped/broken in many places, very dirty and run down looking.

    Staff was nowhere to be found to check stock for us...needless to say we won't be going back. They need an entire revamp of their brand if they're going to have a shot at competing.
    May 1 01:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Energy Is Finally Joining EOG Resources In Its Oil Success Story [View article]
    I disagree with that assessment. CHK was an investor in gas and they lost, while at the same time being highly levered, their flexibility was limited. Their move to big liquids plays early and to flip a portion of them was necessity for survival. While I agree you don't want to run a company in this manner in perpetuity, it was a bet that they had to make and thankfully it paid off.

    Prior management's treatment of royalty owners is something I also disagree with, but that was prior management.

    This company is certainly on the right track and almost all facets of their business today reflect that...

    Breaking them up to sell them? Why? Because you think they're an EOG imitator? Who cares if they're imitating EOG...it's working and the company is on a path towards sustainable success.
    Apr 30 04:22 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ohio geologists link earthquakes to fracking, state unveils tougher rules [View news story]
    It's wastewater injection not fracking directly tha will be the cause. This smells a bit like propaganda.
    Apr 11 09:23 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oklahoma seeing surge in earthquakes near fracking sites [View news story]
    Michael got it right. To claim this is related to "fracking" is a reach at best and outright lie at worst. Likely intending to mislead to generate clicks and/or reaction by various news and governmental sites.

    This is linked to wastewater disposal wells. The wastewater can be a byproduct of "fracking" but the earthquakes are likely NOT because a well was fracked but instead the manner in which the wastewater was disposed of. BIG difference.
    Apr 10 04:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The United States Is Running Dangerously Low On Natural Gas [View article]
    Would love to know where you get your data. Been in the nat gas industry 10 years now and we seem to have plenty of production capacity left. Marcellus production still has significant potential upside left in the tank.
    Mar 31 08:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The United States Is Running Dangerously Low On Natural Gas [View article]
    This was a good article but I have to take some issue with parts of it and some of the comments.

    First of all...well written and documented piece. I expected it to be rather flimsy but it wasn't bad.

    Yes storage is at 10 or 12 year lows but the last few years we have been at exceptional highs at end of injection storage levels and at end of winter storage levels. From summer of 2012 there has been a mild shift back to coal for some electricity generation, which started in 2013 and we'll see some more marginal swtiching this year I believe. That will hamper demand a bit, and we're producing about 6 to 7% more gas each day than we were in 2012.

    Some shale gas formations are beginning to decline (mostly due to pricing, not lack of drilling inventory) but many are BOOMING like the Marcellus. Additionally as North Dakota begins to put pressure on drillers to bring gas to market you'll see more supply come on from the Bakken beginning late this year and early next year.

    I think the market is better balanced than it was two years ago but it's hard for me to believe we'll see a shortage of gas or that we're "dangerously" low. If we get into December after a hot summer with only 2.5 TCF in storage then I would agree, that's a potential problem.

    Also the EIA constantly moves their projections around, they've been high and low, although this year they've been consistenly high on the exit volume for the year and we'll dip below a TCF today and probably finish the year somewhere around 920-940 BCF.
    Mar 20 12:13 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Play It Safe: Don't Buy And Don't Short Natural Gas At The Current Levels [View article]
    Hurricanes are particularly susceptible to wind shear. Shearing can limit tropical cyclone intensification and can breakdown existing storms fairly quickly.
    Mar 19 11:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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