censeo's Comments

Sheila Bair - World's Worst Regulator - to Stay at FDIC

Sun, 11 Jan 2009 23:31:34 -0500

Stained facts and hyperbole. Why not go all the way. I think Mr. Brown has Ann Coulter envy.

Financials and TED Spread Could Signal a Bottom for Corporate Profit Declines

Sun, 31 Aug 2008 08:48:39 -0400

"prepare for the impending bull market." You say.
Main Entry: im·pend
1 a: to hover threateningly : menace b: to be about to occur
2archaic : to hang suspended

I agree this is a good time to plan but to suggest a bull market is immanent is absurd one-track reductionism. And any investment moves should intend to capture a cycle low range with expectations of growth from 18 mos. to 3 yrs. out.

'Seasonality' Not a Factor in June Case-Shiller Improvement

Sun, 31 Aug 2008 08:36:08 -0400

So what's your point? Did you write this because it was your day to drop 200 words into the newsletter. I'd rather hear 25 words on what you are doing right now on your Summer vacation. (Send it to Wheaties. Only.)

Housing and Financials: The Worst May Soon Be Over

Thu, 28 Aug 2008 20:31:33 -0400

I refer all to Barry Ritholtz and his very recent persona: anti-Cassandra. Could be Mr. Jinjigian is wearing her dress. And he ought to wipe that confident smile off his bio photo face. When has one month established a trend? Is this man actually ignorant of the forthcoming slew of mortgages to be adjusted shortly? First buy a cardboard box. Then take his investment advice.
Censeo

Give Troubled Borrowers Cash - Greenspan

Thu, 20 Dec 2007 20:26:23 -0500

Why is anyone paying attention Ayn Greenspan?

Look What They're Saying About the Housing Market

Fri, 14 Dec 2007 07:43:49 -0500

Look. Paper losses are usually not actual losses--the caveat being whether the asset is likely to be, or should be used for leverage. Under current circumstances very significant: fin. ind. transformations in the last 25 years drew a mass American cultural misconception that the house you live in is a margin investment account. It ain't, never has been, never will be. Bubble: hell. What the suckers (both subprimies and clever derivitive mongers) have been playing is strip poker. Look around the table. You'll note little more that a sock on, a belt, a bracelet. Everyone is a loser. And this is only the first round.
Fin. Inst. write offs. Are they merely "paper losses"? If the money was funny when it surfaced its eventual dissolution is inevitable.

Housing Prices Will Continue to Fall - Greenspan

Fri, 14 Dec 2007 07:18:49 -0500

Alan "Rand" Greenspan has, of course never made a mistake and he is doing a lot of quick reactive damage control for his wrong calls while he led the Fed.
In this case he is dead on as to the global scope and components likely to stifle liquidity. He is wrong about his solution/prognosis. The subprime fiasco is simply the initial inkling into the vast changes in global financial structure. Far more significant systemic weaknesses will be exposed that will demonstrate elaborated RE derivatives as only one--and perhaps not the biggest--sub rosa construct to come out of those too clever Wall Streeters' heads.
If it sounds too good to be true; It probably isn't.

8 Predictions for 2008

Wed, 12 Dec 2007 01:25:32 -0500

Without any substantiation, Weiss's commentary reads like a letter to Santa Claus. Nos. 1,2,5 & 6 = Wrong.
Nos. 3 & 4 = yes, but so what: too little and far too late
No. 7 = slim possibility but unlikely; the damn has just begun to crumble: many more boat to wash down over the falls.
No. 8 = Yes. Congrats, 1 out of 8.

Housing Bubble and Real Estate Market Tracker

Mon, 22 Oct 2007 18:53:19 -0400

Regarding Caterinicchia's article: Deja vu all over again. Just predate to May and substitute residential for commercial and you have the same Peter Pan reality. If only it were so. People lose their houses and therefore their personal bank in the bricks; all real estate industry components, and now financial houses, lay off, cut bonuses and salaries... Who's going to occupy the office space? Who's going out shopping? Doesn't anybody out there remember the "see-through" unfinished malls and strips and office buildings last time around in 1989-1992? Dan. Repeat after me. "If I only had a brain."

Outlook for The Market, The Fed and Housing

Fri, 14 Sep 2007 13:14:06 -0400

And it hardly ever rains in Calcutta.

Greenspan Seemingly Suffers From Acute Amnesia

Sun, 09 Sep 2007 18:20:10 -0400

I saw the dangers of trickster greenie in 2002. What the heck was everyone else thinking? That the tooth fairy would make it alright?Never never trust an adherent of Ayn Rand. Maybe Allie can go around blowing up Fountainhead and reduce inventory.

Housing Bubble and Real Estate Market Tracker

Wed, 27 Jun 2007 20:34:34 -0400

RE: Quote of the day; I find this: "Bill Gross, the chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management Co., or PIMCO, on Tuesday lambasted rating agencies for failing to warn investors about the riskiest segments of the U.S. credit markets..." stunningly disingenuous. Does a chief investment officer rely on rating agencies? Anybody following the trend in flighty mortgage programs will have seen the writing on the wall. I'll assume he has kept himself informed. So, then, he's a greedy pig and a sheep following the flock off the cliff. Blame him and others like him managing funds with the attitude, "I don't care, the sky is blue today and anyway it's other peoples money." Who set up this mess. Not the rating agencies. Mr. Gross is the one on six-inch heels. And now he's stumbled and is saying the agencies bumped into him? Give me a break.

The Truth About Personal Savings and Debt Levels

Sun, 10 Jun 2007 05:08:27 -0400

Worth, particularly that which is tied into illiquid assets--real estate--is not cash. Paper gains or losses are meaningless. In each case equity can be funneled by refi or line of credit, by margin account. Both add debt against unrealized value. (Ultimately the great depression resulted from a new money/credit paradigm confounded by outmoded methods and controls.) Further, cherry picking your pertinent factors does not necessarily paint an accurate picture. Miller's logic is immature: both cats and pigs have 4 legs; don't mean your pig can climb trees.

NAR and Housing Forecasts

Fri, 08 Jun 2007 22:10:57 -0400

Do little more homework.

NAR and Housing Forecasts

Fri, 08 Jun 2007 22:09:43 -0400

It used to be said that if you were to lay every economist end to end they wouldn't reach a conclusion. Sadly, this isn't still true. Too bad that these over-educated fools have been given a voice and bigger fools follow their advice to their own ruin. (Schiller is the eccentric who at least formulates the questions cogently.) I'd like to know the home purchasing statistics for the 100 top paid economists over the last five years. Do they make book on their own crystal ball antics? My forecast; In five years "residential real estate" and "investment" won't even show up on the same news page.