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bubba1979

bubba1979
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  • Why I'm Staying Away From A Long-Term Investment In Tesla [View article]
    Asking a retired actress advice on cars seems, counter intuitive. Perhaps if you ask her taste in hip hop music we can tell what will be popular in the next few years ;-)
    Aug 20 10:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Staying Away From A Long-Term Investment In Tesla [View article]
    I don't think its a long term investment to get into now. Lots of risks lots of rewards.

    I'm staying long term, but... I bought really cheap 2 years ago, I've cashed out my original investment, and I am using stop losses just in case. My stop is at 213. If it hits, well its been a fun ride, but I'm expecting the stock to be at least at 320 a year from now. I sold 100 shares last summer at 128, gulp, mistake, bought back in 200 shares at 135 at the dip in December. Had 100 called away at 200 and sold 50 at 250 at the last peak.

    I'll still have 100 shares if my stop hits at 213, and if it goes to 0 from there, well I'll have had my big profit from my purchase at 32 and 135.
    Aug 20 09:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's China Dreams May Be In Trouble [View article]
    The forecast is 100,000 cars and SUVs (S and X, maybe a few R?) in 2016.

    No need to be a booster. They may make it or may fall short. No one reasonable seems to be forecasting only 35,000 cars in 2016. Note GM, Toyota, Nissan, Ford, etc have all fallen far short on some forecasts. The big one for the stock price is really 2020 with the 3 added to the mix and the gigafactory. If tesla doesn't get at least 50% growth a year, the stock will slide big time though, so the minimum before a severe stock correction would be 78,000 in 2016. We can expect seasonaility by then, with the end of the calender year being the best quarter.
    Aug 18 12:58 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's China Dreams May Be In Trouble [View article]
    Opening a third factory is no easy task. Tesla's management is consumed with retooling for higher production and the X in the fremont factory, and planning the battery gigafactory. There aren't slack funds and management attention for a chinese factory until at least 2018. Trying to do it before then might bankrupt the company.

    I doubt very much tesla would do better shipping chinese made cars to japan and india than US made ones. Its likely Japans soft barriers will be even up to prevent many us made teslas.
    Aug 18 12:33 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors has 500M reasons to build the Gigafactory in California [View news story]
    I doubt this is the case. I'm sure musk is going to get a good deal of money for gigafactory whether it is from Nevada, Texas, or Arizona. California has to match it if they want the factory. Toyota just decided to move their headquarters to texas.
    Aug 14 01:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors has 500M reasons to build the Gigafactory in California [View news story]
    If you noticed california is going to waive some of their environmental rules, ie. extra taxes, if tesla builds there. If you are pro these rules, which seem to favor out of state car manufacturing, then you should tell your legislature to enforce them evenly ;-( including tesla.

    If you understand this cabon cap and tax as california has implemented it, you would realize that it just will move manufacturing to other states, well unless you are tesla I guess.

    Then again, the next CARB chairman or chairwoman, could implement a special tesla tax, they were good at rewriting the rules pro fuel cell last time, so if I was musk, I would probably build outside california.
    Aug 14 01:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: Will The Model 3 Make A Mark? [View article]
    It is attempting to compete with the bmw 3 and mercedes C class. The three lines in 3 also look like the tesla E so the three models S=X spell sex (don't have the tesla E on my keyboard ;-)
    Jul 18 04:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: Will The Model 3 Make A Mark? [View article]
    I believe tesla will also get supplied by samsung for the X. We will see in the next week how much panasonic and its partners put up for the gigafactory. I expect 30% drop in cost to tesla should be easy with gigafactory. Economoies of scale. Lower transportation and electricity costs, simply the normal drop of 7%/year of lithium batteries per year is 22% by the time the 3 is ready for production.
    Jul 18 04:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In The Land Of Irrelevant Numbers, Tesla Gave Us A Goldmine [View article]
    I absolutely agree, but ... Tesla is getting the S buyers to contribute to the build out, which encourages future sales. If you add the marketing benefits of the charging network to the fees added to the cars, I'm sure they are profitable. I just don't know how we can calculate without more years of data. Right now the number of cars is so small. 2017 is probably the earliest, but these things are strategic for teslas growth, and they should do them even if they are paying for the marketing privalage to say they have national quick charging networks.
    Jul 15 11:52 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla May Have A Huge Unfunded Warranty Problem Due To Defective Drivetrains [View article]
    I have no problem with your guestimate that the first couple of years of tesla's may cost the company around $5000/vehicle more than tesla is funding liabilities.

    What doesn't follow is the extrapolation that this will go on every year. I would expect if warranty costs are high, then tesla will either a) engineer a solution, or b) provide more money and financial guidance. My guess would be a. I doubt the titanium shield problem will recure every year ;-). Motors/batteries/etc should be low waranty costs once they get them right.
    Jul 13 05:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla needs a big month to meet its targets, analyst says [View news story]
    yep those of us that bought in the 30s and sold a little at 250, are going to get killed when it rockets to 400 then falls back to 180. I mean we will lose so much ;-)
    Jun 23 11:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Q2 Goes Down To The Wire As Well [View article]
    Model X in volume won't be until april 2015 according to the company. This years sales projections are all based on Model S. Of course there will also be revenue from the tesla parts in toyota and mercedes vehicles.

    Telsa's model S growth is coming from international, not US markets. We knew this was the plan a year ago, and it seems to be executing well. The author, and some others seem to think that if the company doesn't grow california sales, it is lost, but that is not the business plan, and those of us that bought stock at least 6 months ago are doing well.
    Jun 16 06:53 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldman Sachs weighs in on Tesla Motors [View news story]
    Tesla was saying volume production of the X around April 2015. They have prototypes already. They likely will have a production model in Q4 of this year to shake out. You are reading the right stuff, but the words about prototypes are confusing. The S is already a mule for the batteries and motors ;-)
    Apr 10 11:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldman Sachs weighs in on Tesla Motors [View news story]
    I think its the opposite. If Panasonic wanted to give the business to Samsung or lg or jci, it wouldn't be looking for partners to come up with more cash for the gigafactory. Sure Panasonic hasn't located the cash, so they haven't signed the agreement, but if they were about to back out we would be hearing from battery competitors. IMHO Panasonic stock will take a hit if they don't take the agreement. Tesla can still find another battery partner though.
    Apr 10 11:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • We Have March Numbers For Tesla And A Prediction For The First Quarter [View article]
    The thing keeping down production is suppliers. The biggest bottle neck is Panasonic, that did not believe Tesla's projections of sales. Faced with the threat of tesla adding samsung and other battery makers to the equation, Panasonic is saying they should get production up this quarter. Other suppliers and tesla appear to be able to get to the 35,000 unit production for this year. This does require more equipment and labor, but they should be able to do it.

    Once the bottle necks are cleared then the only thing stopping sales are well distribution and sales. If you believe that there is demand in Asia and Europe to buy these cars then even at California's possibly plateaued numbers sales can grow. A year from now the Tesla X should be in production which allows for another layer of sales growth. Its tough to execute supply chain and sales chanels though, so there could be hiccups.
    Apr 4 05:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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