User 86999's Comments

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Tue, 15 Sep 2009 01:37:07 -0400

David, thanks for your continued commentary. I notice that you're using the McClellan Summation from some other site (decisionpoint?), but it is also available on stockcharts ($NYSI), where you're making the rest of your charts. Just saying!

What New Exchange Traded Products Do We Really Need?

Tue, 10 Feb 2009 09:32:18 -0500

Most important, we need ETFs that work with simple tax structure, like 1099 forms, and not those phantom income producing, K-1 form based products which can produce negative surprise for the consumer at the end of the year. Worst nightmare is when they don't bother to spell it out in the prospectus that they will produce K-1 and hide behind keywords like "partnership" and so on. I would like to see some movement in favor of the consumers. Enough with the wall street games!

Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Wed, 04 Feb 2009 12:05:14 -0500

Shorting the bonds means we're betting that the interest rates will go up, but Bernanke has emphatically made it clear that the rates will not be allowed to move higher anytime soon. They will buy all the treasuries they have to buy in order to maintain the rates under their control. Hence, there is the dilemma.

On Feb 04 10:26 AM kelm wrote:

> Reason to short bonds is pretty simple. There is $2.5 trillion in
> US treasuries coming to auction this year vs $890 billion last year
> and most major governments in the world are also planning massive
> debt auctions. Supply and demand - too much supply so prices have
> to drop significantly to attract buyers. The Fed can tr and drive
> the rates lower but the morr debt that is auctioned the harder they
> will have to work to effect any real change in rates through intervention.
> This will also play into the dollar's level causing it to drop.
>
>
> Disclosure: long TBT, PST, CEF, TGLDX, UDN

Distressing Details of the UltraShorts

Mon, 26 Jan 2009 08:43:41 -0500

Thanks for addressing this issue. It is helpful to those who are new to leveraged ETFs, and are researching their options.

In the vein of 'distress', may I suggest doing an article that addresses the K-1 nightmares. That will also be a good topic for the people who may not know what to look for in a prospectus/SAI, such as the 'limited partnership', PTP and so forth. The real issue with K-1 producing ETFs is that even if you lose money in a transaction, you may still be slapped with a phantom income, for which you owe taxes. That does not make sense at all. So, I am taking the approach to avoid all funds that produce K-1 at the tax time. Any thoughts?

Direxion Leveraged ETFs Win Fans Amid Market Volatility

Wed, 21 Jan 2009 09:56:50 -0500

People need to be aware of the K-1 complexity issues involved, when the tax time arrives. The prospectus is silent but SAI includes information of how the funds are PTP or QPTP, which should generate K-1. Unfortunately, the prospectus does not clearly provide the information on of the tax form vehicle used: i.e. whether they'll issue 1099, the normal tax document or the K-1. I am looking for some credible site/article that may have compiled such information on all the financially engineered ETFs. We know what financial engineering has already done to us, but transparency is still an issue.

There Are Many More Satyams Out There

Fri, 09 Jan 2009 09:57:53 -0500

"Because as long as auditors fail to conduct extensive and precise reconciliations between cash-flow items within financial statements on one hand and contractual obligations which generate those items on the other, innovative managements will always find ways to create an aura of viability."

Yes, indeed. This is an equivalent of credit rating agencies, which have no fear of being accountable, because they grease the right wheels in the entire chain! Good luck with finding a respectable system. The common man/woman will be screwed until they bleed.

Stocks vs. Bonds: Long-Term and Short-Term

Fri, 09 Jan 2009 09:37:27 -0500

Richard, great charts, but it would be nice to include your opinion on how to incorporate the monthly distributions to complete the picture. The price charts above are ex-dividend price behaviors. So, including the monthly payments will substantially strengthen the case for bonds, I think.

Deflation: It's Starting to Get Silly

Mon, 05 Jan 2009 09:31:23 -0500

When there is an elephant running around violently in the streets, do you think someone should tackle the beast, or should it be left alone to do whatever it wants? That's the analogy to show the big corrupt organizations (bank/insurance/auto/w... and the government's role is to tame the beast and to define its boundaries.

The problem with the government is that it's micromanaging/mismanag... the affairs. Now, it's not just a bunch of rowdy elephants that are the problem, but also the ring-masters in this circus that are part of this fiasco. When the government was sleeping while the elephants were slipping out by bribing whoever was supposed to be watching them, that was the time to raise the red flag. And, some people did, but when everyone is drunk on the easy money, voices of sanity are usually ignored; because, some people are just too fond of learning the hard way.

Deflation is a problem for those who have been on credit, and that means a whole lot of US population, and the government itself, and the central bankers cannot allow for that. People who were/are savers, they will gain more purchasing power during deflation, but the government would rather punish those who were careful and reward those who were/are reckless.

ProShares Leverages Currencies and Commodities

Fri, 28 Nov 2008 18:06:21 -0500

Any ideas on the tax treatment of these funds? Will they be using K-1 based tax treatment or is it regular 1099?

UltraShort ETFs: At a Tipping Point?

Sun, 16 Nov 2008 10:49:13 -0500

You, sir, are the reason why TA gets a bad rap. Many have already pointed out the inadequacy of charting a derivative, and then not to mention, a leveraged one! Wow, double the mistake! You really do like leveraging.

Now, as to the salvaging the effort, RSI is still heading up. the SHS may actually be a triple top (I haven't checked the underlying index - I don't like nasdaq index), +DI is still above the DI, even though it's just about to cross, all averages, you show, are in their normal form. The only clever sign picked up by Mllambo is the developing negative divergence. I would keep an eye on this baby if I was trading QQQQ/QID.

The Reagan Counterrevolution

Sun, 09 Nov 2008 10:09:43 -0500

Peter, I have read your book and have been reading your articles and watching your comments on tv. What you say makes sense most of the times, but then suddenly, you say something that is either too simplistic or just doesn't make sense. Buffett Jr has pointed out one above.

Can you write a focused and concise analysis of why we're in such a historic financial turmoil and what exactly was the role of regulation in this turmoil. I think that effort will make your case more believable. The general statements like regulation is bad is not strong enough evidence. As economists we should be able to back up with empirical data.

I would argue that the lack of regulation is exactly why the bankers' greed got out of control and now we're all paying for it. The gov has to step into the situation after all, because the final tab of that greed is running into trillions (yes, with a T), and no private enterprise has that kind of money; besides when you start selling those junk CDO and CDS vehicles to foreign enterprises, the gov will be forced to step into resolving any conflicts. So, how do you propose the private enterprise to be able to self-regulate. I think the current situation already self-evident of what self-regulation can cause.

Obscure Indicator Points to Possible Market Bounce

Sun, 26 Oct 2008 12:50:02 -0400

The week of 10/10 implies end of that week because 10th was a friday, so the data is a bit too old in today's fast moving circus, as 2 more weeks closed after that data. And we already know how brutal those two weeks were. Since the 'specialists' number was also on the rise that probably indicated what we saw in the two following weeks after that number was published.

Don’t Blame Wall Street - At Least Not Completely

Mon, 29 Sep 2008 17:34:03 -0400

Stop the propaganda. The Level 3 assets with opaque books unable to explain the true value of assets and a whole lot of junk used to bloat the books to make the hefty incomes and bonuses does not fall in line with legitimate reasonable business practices. You cannot convince anyone who understands the accounting books, but good luck with some simpletons who may buy illogical random thoughts. Ron Paul has it right, once you are able to grasp the knowledge!

Being the Change: Baidu Report Raises Important Ethical Questions

Thu, 18 Sep 2008 16:37:11 -0400

Good timing on the article - BIDU went up 20% today!

Roubini Attacks Bailout, But Misses Boat on Regulation

Wed, 10 Sep 2008 18:53:45 -0400

While I agree with the MS thesis that Fed itself and all FNM/FRE style entities were a problem to begin with, I will interpret Dr. Roubini's complaint about lack of regulation when applied to cooked books at those institutions. When the top forensic accountants are still struggling to correctly figure out what exactly is where in assets/liabilities, we have a problem. And of course FNM/FRE are just the tip of the iceberg; wait till an army of others start getting exposed with all their Level III assets. When the regulation allows you to hide your deeds with creative financial engineering and rewards the fat cats at the top of the institutions with millions of dollars in compensation and severance packages, you need to bring the regulation in line!

The Two-Ton Wall Street Conflict of Interest Few Dare To Talk About

Sun, 07 Sep 2008 15:24:39 -0400

Matt, your article on sformag is well written, but your thesis starts breaking down once you start using the numbers, such as $362B, $600B, $510B, which do not fit well together. Regardless, the profits sitting overseas waiting for a money-laundry opportunity like the 5.25% tax is a taxation loophole anyway. The Code needs be tightened, so that a corporation cannot keep the profits stashed away waiting for such an opportunity and instead pays the dues every year.

The following is a quote from your conclusion:

''Punish corporations for engaging in business overseas while raising the taxes they pay to the highest in the industrialized world, and they will do one of two things: either do less global business (which then will go to non-U.S. competitors) and become less profitable in the process (which means they will be able to hire fewer Americans); or these companies will simply move away, with a similar impact on U.S. workers.''

Well ... in the first case, the higher domestic hiring is a distorted myth, so it is very unlikely to happen because the corporate greed will prevail, and in the second case, we can live without those patriots and they are free to move out of this country - just make sure to surrender the passport when deciding to move elsewhere. Bon Voyage!

I was going to comment on the article on its relevant site, but I didn't find a place where I could comment, so sorry about ranting on this forum, but I just wanted to provide my feedback from a different perspective. I'm sure you mean well, but I think we need to weigh our priorities a little more closely. The economy is way out of control because of the corporate/bourgeois greed already - a few more mistakes and we're doomed. We need to spread the wealth not concentrate it in the upper echelons.

The Two-Ton Wall Street Conflict of Interest Few Dare To Talk About

Sun, 07 Sep 2008 12:09:45 -0400

This is so strange that our wages have not moved up since 2000, incidentally matching the dubya years, and prices have sky rocketed in this period; life has been sucked out of the middle and aspiring middle class, but we still fail to see that the republican policies are not in the interest of the common citizen - unless of course you are one of those making more than a million bucks a year, which is not quite rich but not exactly middle class either. I cannot see how a middle class person will consider more taxes on the corporate to be anti-corporate, if those taxes can be used to pay for your health and education, which in fact returns those benefits back to the corporate, while making sure that the employees get paid enough instead of that big fat cat sitting at the top.

Google: Chrome, Android and The Cloud

Wed, 03 Sep 2008 17:59:04 -0400

Any browser that is not based on open source and cannot be compiled from open source cannot be trusted for its shenanigans. There is no way to control the privileges of an autonomous application (such as a browser) on Windows (the platform used by most). Now, of course, one could dream about forcing everyone to start using other platforms, but one will be better off living reality. Hence, Firefox will remain a healthy choice for the masses.

More on 'Buffett Pie' and Paying For Tax Cuts

Wed, 03 Sep 2008 09:39:30 -0400

The baby boomer generation has been paying enough in social security and medicare to the war hero generation while expecting no such cushion in return when our time arrives to give our tired bones a little rest.

Google: Chrome, Android and The Cloud

Tue, 02 Sep 2008 11:04:06 -0400

The biggest threat is loss of privacy. Gmail never deletes any piece of email you've ever received or sent out - it just obscures it from your sight. By using their browser now you're handing off your browsing history to the endless data collection centers. Microsoft and Firefox provide the checks necessary to preserve our civil rights.

Yes, Virginia, There are High Dividend ETNs

Wed, 27 Aug 2008 09:41:44 -0400

Unfortunately, there are tedious taxation issues (think K-1) involved in owning currencies or commodities with "partnership" and "grantor trust" types, that these vehicles are not suitable for individual investors. Various fund issuers sometimes don't even have the prospectus available on their site (I remember having trouble with Barclays), and if you find one, you cannot clearly gain proper taxation information. You are advised to consult some tax advisers to "explain" the prospectus to you. If the fund issuers themselves are unable to clearly explain the basic taxation (no individual special cases), implying that the taxation is too complicated under all the novel "schemes", you can imagine the nightmare for a back street individual. Even your tax adviser may not be a specialist in such cases, you need to find someone who is actually familiar with these issues. Yahoo boards have more information on K-1 issues.

Opportunities to Profit from the New Cold War

Fri, 15 Aug 2008 10:24:44 -0400

I wonder if there is an ETF that contains BAESY.PK and EADSY.PK, instead of using the pinks directly.

Obama's Tax Plan - And Basic Honesty

Thu, 14 Aug 2008 11:25:49 -0400

I like the graphical comparison. How about someone tried to fix the graphic by removing the ''distortion''. It will be a great service to really make the point. These tons of words are a good effort to challenge the honesty of the original, but kind of falls short in driving the point home.

Just How Correlated Are Oil and Equities?

Thu, 14 Aug 2008 11:15:54 -0400

The stats can be deceptive because of the market inefficiencies. When the oil goes up, your local gas stations are raising the prices immediately, but are they reducing it as fast and proportionately when oil goes down? No. So, the net effect is that the future holder speculators are making the money, but the broader economy is not highly correlated to the benefits. So, the stats will be skewed in one direction.

Correction: Beware of Taxes with Currency, Precious Metal ETFs

Thu, 14 Aug 2008 09:25:57 -0400

It will be worth mentioning the nightmare taxation associated with "partnership" status of some of the funds such as DBC, the currency basket and whole lot more inside or outside of currency asset class that generate K-1 forms. Those forms contain some phantom incomes that you've never seen but are required by IRS to pay taxes on, because the "partnership" made that money. Bizarre. Yahoo forums contain numerous threads on that aspect. It is sad that there is no authoritative article on SA to address that issue.

The USA Hits the BRICs

Mon, 11 Aug 2008 10:52:50 -0400

Richard, you have made many, many excellent contributions and I look forward to reading your posts, but please know that as authors/writers we do need to exercise some judgment as to what makes a good

GRN and DBV: Indicative, But of What?

Tue, 05 Aug 2008 09:28:30 -0400
Whenever I see DBV or DBC or any of those grantor trusts, partnerships, a chilling creepy feeling runs through my spine. Why? Because of the taxing nightmare associated with these funds/etns. They generate K-1, which can actually show humongous income, which is completely unrelated to your actual gains/loss from the buying/selling of the fund; hence causing you to lose money at tax time even if you did make some from the purchase/sale of that fund. I have not seen any good treatment of the taxation issue related to these types of funds. I wonder if someone else has seen any.

Is WisdomTree's Emerging Market ETF Too Good to Be True?

Thu, 31 Jul 2008 09:43:52 -0400
DEM:
As of 07/29/2008
Closing Share Price: $52.86
Closing NAV: $51.85
Premium/(Discount): 1.95%
Current Distribution Rate: 0.92% (Yes, 0.92% NOT 8+%)

Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Wed, 30 Jul 2008 09:57:29 -0400
Amen, Kelly, amen! In 8 years, we've gone from $5 Trillion surplus to $10 Trillion deficit! Now that's progress.

Speaking of Goliath, unfortunately, in the real life David/Goliath battle (as opposed to the story), the Goliath is killing the little Davids in the market - hence the metaphor is not working. It would be more like Vikings are plundering.

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Fri, 25 Jul 2008 09:43:13 -0400
Major banks are being taken over by the government, and you call them "perceived problems"? No wonder, we need to stay away from TV - bloomberg or not.