User 86999

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

David, thanks for your continued commentary. I notice that you're using the McClellan Summation from some other site (decisionpoint?), but it is also available on stockcharts ($NYSI), where you're making the rest of your charts. Just saying!

Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Shorting the bonds means we're betting that the interest rates will go up, but Bernanke has emphatically made it clear that the rates will not be allowed to move higher anytime soon. They will buy all the treasuries they have to buy in order to maintain the rates under their control. Hence, there is the dilemma.



On Feb 04 10:26 AM kelm wrote:

> Reason to short bonds is pretty simple. There is $2.5 trillion in
> US treasuries coming to auction this year vs $890 billion last year
> and most major governments in the world are also planning massive
> debt auctions. Supply and demand - too much supply so prices have
> to drop significantly to attract buyers. The Fed can tr and drive
> the rates lower but the morr debt that is auctioned the harder they
> will have to work to effect any real change in rates through intervention.
> This will also play into the dollar's level causing it to drop.
>
>
> Disclosure: long TBT, PST, CEF, TGLDX, UDN

Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Amen, Kelly, amen! In 8 years, we've gone from $5 Trillion surplus to $10 Trillion deficit! Now that's progress.

Speaking of Goliath, unfortunately, in the real life David/Goliath battle (as opposed to the story), the Goliath is killing the little Davids in the market - hence the metaphor is not working. It would be more like Vikings are plundering.

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Major banks are being taken over by the government, and you call them "perceived problems"? No wonder, we need to stay away from TV - bloomberg or not.

PowerShares DB Energy: Too Late to Join the Party?

Beware of the K-1 complications from IRS taxation point of view, including the limitations in retirement accounts.

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

David tends to come out as cynical but more often than not, his humor is well balanced with information. I think there is room for a little more emphasis on TA than the fundamentals and the market reactions to the fundamentals. Overall, I'm very happy with this column - my favorite for every morning. As for the TA skeptics, nothing can be said to convince them; people have written books upon books on the subject but still no awakening.

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Bob, TA works off of trends indicating entry and exit points. You don't PREDICT the market as such. It works MOST of the time, but not all the time. Did you notice the word "trap" in some charts from David? You watch out for those and liquidate your investment with minor losses/gains while you still have time. The TA works in charts that have a fair degree of stability to indicate trends. It also depends on the market volatility. In times like now, you're either hyper alert with your finger constantly hovering over the button, or you stay out until the storm settles down. Did you notice David saying he was about 75% cash in this market?

Commodity ETFs Overbought; Gold Least So

Even the numbers are getting all mixed up. Throwing in standard deviation and percentages together doesn't make sense. On a bell curve, the relationship between the two is well known but requires a lookup to make sense of the relationship. The difference between 2% overbought and 10% overbought may not be statistically significant on the curve. What a waste of time!

Thursday Outlook: The Inflation Con Game

"... veto is needed, because we know that the masses in Congress do not work collectively to achieve the best ends for the future ..."

And hence, there is one almighty who knows it all, and can veto? Sorry, doesn't stand to reason, because there IS no perfect human, and must not be allowed to overturn the will of the people, supposedly represented by the republic office holders [congress].

"... recklessly invaded Iraq on his false data ..."?
Greed is more appropriate. All the facts point to that. It was a planned act of greed. Just look at the beneficiaries and the act is hard to miss, if one is willing to see.

Mr. Fry has really touched on some sensitive nerves by mentioning the CPI. Now, it's all politics. We cannot change the system through blog reviews and comments. We need some serious change in how we think. One soul at a time, I suppose. OK, now we get back to the CPI. :-)

Thursday Outlook: The Inflation Con Game

For the first four year, he didn't have to use a veto, b/c the congress was in control already. The veto in a democracy is a shame in its own right; it's more adequate in authoritarian systems. Are we living in Russia? People have no voice. Their voice is muffled by the self-indulging congress to begin with. And then, if sometimes the interest of the people is aligned with the interest of congress, you can see the results, and feel happy as if you have the power; the power of the people, the "by the people, for the people..." kind of illusion. If we were really interested in fixing the system, it doesn't take much to do so. Why is Europe better in their social systems? Now, they seem to work "for the people." Of course, there will be some exceptions, but the standard of living over there is much better than here in the US.

Thursday Outlook: The Inflation Con Game

The experimental index seems to be doing even worse than the official one; so, who is the genius behind that one?

Sure, we can quibble all we want, about congress, republican, democrat, iraq, lewinsky, terrorism and the whole shebang. The truth is, that the truth is known to just about 20 people at a time, who have a close knowledge of any situation. The rest of 300 million people are just being manipulated by interpretations and hearsay, and the worst one - the tube. The more one watches the tube, the more misguided (happily self-perceived knowledgeable) one will be. The Sacred Cow #2 should be extended to beyond the market hours and specify what channels to block out permanently! Enlightenment comes from books, not from the tube.

Friday Outlook: Place Your Bets

Great insights, as usual. Thanks for your opinion on DBC; I'm learning from the pros!

Thursday Outlook: Ignore the Talking Heads

1. DBC seems to be forming a wedge, or is it?
2. Based on technicals, what should be the next stop for FXF?
Appreciate your opinion on that, next time. Thanks.