User 86999

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

David, thanks for your continued commentary. I notice that you're using the McClellan Summation from some other site (decisionpoint?), but it is also available on stockcharts ($NYSI), where you're making the rest of your charts. Just saying!

Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Shorting the bonds means we're betting that the interest rates will go up, but Bernanke has emphatically made it clear that the rates will not be allowed to move higher anytime soon. They will buy all the treasuries they have to buy in order to maintain the rates under their control. Hence, there is the dilemma.



On Feb 04 10:26 AM kelm wrote:

> Reason to short bonds is pretty simple. There is $2.5 trillion in
> US treasuries coming to auction this year vs $890 billion last year
> and most major governments in the world are also planning massive
> debt auctions. Supply and demand - too much supply so prices have
> to drop significantly to attract buyers. The Fed can tr and drive
> the rates lower but the morr debt that is auctioned the harder they
> will have to work to effect any real change in rates through intervention.
> This will also play into the dollar's level causing it to drop.
>
>
> Disclosure: long TBT, PST, CEF, TGLDX, UDN

There Are Many More Satyams Out There

"Because as long as auditors fail to conduct extensive and precise reconciliations between cash-flow items within financial statements on one hand and contractual obligations which generate those items on the other, innovative managements will always find ways to create an aura of viability."

Yes, indeed. This is an equivalent of credit rating agencies, which have no fear of being accountable, because they grease the right wheels in the entire chain! Good luck with finding a respectable system. The common man/woman will be screwed until they bleed.

Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Amen, Kelly, amen! In 8 years, we've gone from $5 Trillion surplus to $10 Trillion deficit! Now that's progress.

Speaking of Goliath, unfortunately, in the real life David/Goliath battle (as opposed to the story), the Goliath is killing the little Davids in the market - hence the metaphor is not working. It would be more like Vikings are plundering.

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Major banks are being taken over by the government, and you call them "perceived problems"? No wonder, we need to stay away from TV - bloomberg or not.

ETF Investment Risks

There appears to be a disconnect between the two paragraphs. Perhaps a connecting sentence is missing?

"For the most part, when you buy an ETF, it's like buying a traditional mutual fund. You own a direct stake in the stocks or bonds that make up the fund.

But there are a few exceptions: ProShares and competing levered funds, as well as some commodity funds; so there is some slight counterparty risk there."

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

David tends to come out as cynical but more often than not, his humor is well balanced with information. I think there is room for a little more emphasis on TA than the fundamentals and the market reactions to the fundamentals. Overall, I'm very happy with this column - my favorite for every morning. As for the TA skeptics, nothing can be said to convince them; people have written books upon books on the subject but still no awakening.

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Bob, TA works off of trends indicating entry and exit points. You don't PREDICT the market as such. It works MOST of the time, but not all the time. Did you notice the word "trap" in some charts from David? You watch out for those and liquidate your investment with minor losses/gains while you still have time. The TA works in charts that have a fair degree of stability to indicate trends. It also depends on the market volatility. In times like now, you're either hyper alert with your finger constantly hovering over the button, or you stay out until the storm settles down. Did you notice David saying he was about 75% cash in this market?

Predicting Emerging Market Fund Performance

The data is a year old, and the comparison with one competitor doesn't make sense. Analysis requires more facts!

ETF Fees Are Largely Irrelevant

This is just psychological manipulation. The fees should not be correlated with the returns; they should be correlated with the effort involved in maintaining a fund. The more work required, the higher the fee. Correlation is not causation, as a statistician would say; just because the returns are higher, doesn't grant a license to rob people; "earn" the money, don't just collect a premium because some area is a goldmine right now. Those returns are based on very high risk investments and ultimately the investors will pay the price when the downturn sets in.