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Retired Colonel

Retired Colonel
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  • If Trees Don't Grow To The Sky: The Next 6 Years [View article]
    Mr. Bilbello, I assume if there's a major crash in financials, the world economy, or wherever, as in 2000 or 2008, it's back to the blackboard for you folks on what the future might behold. Correct? Maybe that's how the next decade will unfold.
    Mar 20, 2015. 09:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed Lost The Patient [View article]
    "Just because we removed the word 'patient' doesn't mean we're going to be impatient."

    Clear and concise forward monetary guidance, or utter nonsense? Reminds me of “Who’s on first, what’s on second…” An old double-talk comedy routine about baseball by two guys named Abbott and Costello, only not nearly as funny.
    Mar 19, 2015. 09:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For Select Emerging Markets [View article]
    I agree on China and India. Betting on EPI, PEK and CQQQ.
    Mar 16, 2015. 11:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lessons From Another Tough Week And The Big Day Ahead [View article]
    The Fed threatens a .25% increase in the shortest end of the rate curve. Never in the recorded history of world finance have so many, been so unnerved, by so little. Thank you Janet.
    Mar 14, 2015. 11:48 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • India Vs. China - Which Will Grow Faster? [View article]
    EPI, PEK and CQQQ.
    Mar 8, 2015. 11:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Friday's Sell-Off: Assessing The Damage And Opportunities [View article]

    "2008-09" -??? I was talking about this decade.


    The administration and the press love to talk about the U-3 number, currently at 5.5%. It ignores all those who no longer are on unemployment benefits, but have looked for employment unsuccessfully within the last 12 months; and all those who have been forced to take a part-time job when they wanted full-time employment. To the BLS, and according to their U-3 report, these people don't exist. But they do; and that's being honest! Don't feel misinformed, it's a con that's been going on for years.

    The U-6 report tells a more accurate story of employment in America. In other words, when the last unemployed worker gives up looking for a decent job, the U-3 report, which you cite, will read" "full employment."

    And no where does it say that Congress gave the Fed the responsibility of propping up equity markets. It's not in their charter under law. That was an unforeseen consequence of their attempt to lower the rate curve by reducing short-term rates, and thus stimulate investment and the general economy. That is their charter.

    But your support of the Fed is understandable. I assume it's based on an interest in personal profit, a perfectly human trait. As Willie Sutton, the famous bank robber once said when asked why he robbed banks, replied: "Because that's where the money is!" Willie was most interested in Willie.
    Mar 7, 2015. 11:36 AM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Friday's Sell-Off: Assessing The Damage And Opportunities [View article]
    I'm personally getting rather tired of this tedious power game Yellen has been endlessly playing:

    "Maybe we'll raise rates tomorrow, maybe we won't. You don't know anything and neither do we. So don't forget to miss my next update."

    And if she snorts or sniffles, that means something in the grand scheme of world finance. There are few things as dangerous as unbridled power, most especially in the hands of a bureaucrat.
    Mar 7, 2015. 09:31 AM | 22 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are S&P 500 Valuations Approaching Dangerous Levels? [View article]
    David, see my comment above. I might be the only one who believes this, but IMO, when Yellen raises rates, pigs will be cruising at 30,000 feet and calling the tower for permission to land.
    Mar 4, 2015. 09:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are S&P 500 Valuations Approaching Dangerous Levels? [View article]
    The Fed may not raise rates; however, they might just rise slowly over a longer period. I wouldn't bet on a horse named Yellen to do anything hinted at.
    Mar 2, 2015. 10:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Terror Cover-Up Scandal In Argentina: Investment Implications Of Prosecutor Nisman's Death [View article]
    Mr. Bezek, as a former prosecutor and supervisor of prosecutors for 20 years, I can think of no good reason why Mr. Kostohryz should apologize for anything after this judge in Argentina halted the further investigation of corruption in the Argentine government. As far as I know, Mr. Kostohryz correctly reported the facts.
    Feb 28, 2015. 08:41 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hawks Take Flight [View article]
    I believe that there's a certain rare type of personality which seeks power almost above all else, and then enjoys most of all the exercise of that power. That has been my observation over a number of years while dealing with many people in powerful positions.

    It's disturbing to me that Ms. Yellen seems to enjoy regularly hinting at Fed rate policy, then promptly changing that expectation. This week we'll get yet another Fed update.

    Abraham Lincoln once famously said: "Nearly all men can stand adversity, but if you want to test a man's character, give him power." He had a habit of saying some very wise things.
    Feb 22, 2015. 06:01 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Use Your Illusion I: CAPEX Spending And S&P Sales Growth [View article]
    Thanks Adam, for an exceptional article. I hadn't previously considered corporate buybacks in quite this way. I suppose I just assumed that if they buy their own company's stock, they must simply love, for right or wrong, their own company's prospects.
    Feb 21, 2015. 09:27 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Got DIA? Got DJIA Stocks? Which Is Better? [View article]
    Peter, sorry for the misunderstanding. I thought your article was about the DIA's investment attractiveness, pro and con, regarding the whole as an indicator and forecaster versus its parts. I mistakenly assumed the bigger picture was much preferable as an indicator of trends and forecasts for equities, and should first be analyzed before an investor attempts to dissect the bottom left hand corner of that picture, an area about the size of the artist's signature.
    Feb 20, 2015. 01:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Got DIA? Got DJIA Stocks? Which Is Better? [View article]
    For a look at a better indicator of the big picture, I'll stick with NYA Composite.
    Feb 20, 2015. 09:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What To Make Of The Pullback In Treasury Bond ETFs [View article]
    Treasuries could go either up or down. If I had a coin, I could do weather forecasting. Snarky but true.
    Feb 20, 2015. 09:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment