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Retired Colonel

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  • The Stock Sectors Set To Streak Into 2015 [View article]
    newbeach861, although not directly addressing your question, I believe the problem with any author attempting to forecast the future you're rightly concerned with is not trying to predict what the Fed might do from here on, it's trying to predict the consequences and effects of what the Fed has done and still might do -- since the Fed itself has no idea how its monetary experimentation will effect this country.
    May 26 12:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Greatest Farce On Wall Street [View article]
    Kevin, I tried enough felony cases to know what you're talking about, and how hard some cases can be to prove. I doubt criminal charges will ever result because this involves so much of what Wall Street is today. It's part of "business as usual," except for the naive. But it's always the naive who suffer the most.

    But if some brave federal or state prosecutor wants to take a serious look at this, they should start by rereading the corporate crime statutes, including Title 9, if a profit has been made by somebody involved, and I believe it has. These statutes, most passed since 1970, are a lot broader than just including "organized crime," meaning the mob.

    Personally, I would be satisfied if the federal regulators would merely do their job and require at least full disclosure to the public.
    May 24 10:41 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Aristocrats Trading With The Hoi Polloi [View article]
    Eric, thanks for the great (maybe "great" because I agree) article.

    I sold CVX, relying on its being a very large part of another of my holdings (VDE). But when push got to shove, I had to keep XOM in my portfolio. If for some strange reason science cannot explain, I end up passing away on the plus side of this game, my final thoughts on this earth might be: "I only wish I'd kept CVX as well as XOM."
    May 24 08:58 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Greatest Farce On Wall Street [View article]
    Eight years ago, when I first started to get serious about studying the market, one of the first things that struck me was: what fools those are who hang on these "expert analyst estimates and predictions," both on company and economy reports. I asked myself "who are these guys (or ladies) who call themselves expert analysts? What makes them so smart, and if they're that brilliant, why are they hiding in the closet."

    Then I saw their "analyses," compared to the actual results and concluded that they were invariably low-balling the numbers. I eventually concluded an analyst is the one in the smallest office selected to call the company and ask what number they should report. Why do half-way intelligent investors believe this charade?

    And the financial press reporters are more than willing co-conspirators in this. Acme Buggy Whip loses $10 million and the reported profits in the press read:"Acme Beats Estimates!" And idiot investors jump on the buggy wagon. Maybe they do because they know better, but they also know all the other idiots will now buy into the con. Or maybe everybody knows what's up and plays the con knowing the investor reaction.

    Back when I was prosecuting cases in the military, I sent a lot of better people than these con artists to Leavenworth for a lot less injury inflicted on a lot fewer people.
    May 24 12:12 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stock Sectors Set To Streak Into 2015 [View article]
    Eric, thanks so much for this article. It provides some of the most relevant information regarding today's market I've seen in a long time. (Yesterday I added a comment to your last article asking for this analysis. You probably had already written and submitted this article by the time I wrote that; but it does show we're at least still on the same frequency.)

    I'm happy that the winners during these stress periods included utilities, REITs and consumer staples, but I am disappointed it also excluded the energy sector. You've now given me one more reason to shorten my stop-loss positions on my energy holdings. Thanks again, I owe you one.
    May 21 05:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Can The Stock Market Stand Naked? [View article]
    Thanks Eric for your usual clear and unbiased data analysis on this extremely timely and important issue.

    I would be interested in seeing another article by you showing the three or four most successful sectors using index ETFs during these same periods of QE-related stress periods. I like your graph format. It would be helpful if all the most successful sectors were all shown on one graph for each period of market stress.

    Thanks for your consideration
    May 20 12:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Bond Yields Are Falling [View article]
    Christopher, I'm an amateur at this, but this amateur thinks you're wrong about why rates are falling and the meaning of that. The lesson to me is that investing in equities, in order to receive higher returns than bonds now offer, is the exact wrong place to be for the rest of 2014.

    IMO, rates have continuously declined this year because, despite reduced levels of QE, net amounts of cash have been flowing INTO bonds. And that money has been coming from somewhere. Somebody, maybe hedge funds, thinks that the immediate future of the market doesn't look good. If that's true, and that source of bond-buying is right, the market is not the place to be at least in the short and intermediate term despite a relatively low return currently available on bonds and a relatively higher potential return in the market.

    I'm speculating that: "Stocks are the only option for today’s investor," is a bad option during 2014.
    May 16 11:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Vanguard ETFs Can Become Number 1 [View article]
    Rob, thanks for the reply. I was searching for a good reason for an investor to pick one over the other. I don't believe a difference of 0.01% in expense is much of a reason if that's the only substantive difference. Otherwise they just slightly scramble the order of their top ten holdings.

    But I still assume if Vanguard offers both, there must be some good reason.
    May 13 05:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Vanguard ETFs Can Become Number 1 [View article]
    Evidently, nobody has a clue.
    May 11 09:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Vanguard ETFs Can Become Number 1 [View article]
    Can someone please explain the practical difference between Vanguard ETFs VXUS and VEU? Emphasis on the "practical."
    May 9 01:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crisis In Ukraine: What Now For U.S. Stocks? [View article]
    apdxyk: "I wouldn't watch Baltics. Too linear, too logical. Watch Kazakhstan instead."

    The Baltic nations are members of NATO; and they're the only NATO members who were formerly members of the Soviet Union. Kazakhstan is not a member of NATO, never has been. We have a treaty commitment to defend NATO. As they say in the Pentagon, "That's serious s..."

    In the big picture, that means a threat to the Baltic nations from Russia makes Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania much more important when it comes to a flash point that threatens world peace even though Kazakhstan is higher on Putin's list.
    May 8 10:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QE? We Don't Need No Stinkin' QE! [View article]

    You ask: "...who do you think is going to buy all those bonds [without QE]?"

    It will be all those equity investors who are running for the exits without QE. They will buy more than enough to counter what the Fed will no longer be buying (hopefully) at that point. You're right, eventually rates will go up to where history says they should be without monetary manipulation by the Fed. But between the time QE ends and the normalization of rates, that's where you'll find your buyers and that answers your question IMO.
    May 7 11:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • QE? We Don't Need No Stinkin' QE! [View article]
    Eric, I have previously appreciated the movements of both Treasuries and gold you describe here, but you have now provided us with the excellent theory on the "why." Thanks!

    Now, assuming tapering continues, I can foresee Treasury rates continuing to remain at least at lower rates than previously predicted, and I can envision gold prices rising. And what might cause that as QE approaches zero? Well, a market full of equity investors running for the exit door might make that happen in full measure.

    If that does occur, the pressure on the Fed to roll out the "All new and dynamic QE4," will be substantial. We'll then get to see whether or not Dr. Yellen has lead in her pencil, or, instead, wilts like wet cardboard.
    May 7 05:31 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • As QE Ends: The Stock Sectors Most At Risk [View article]
    Thanks Eric, for your excellent article backed by real data. I look forward to your next analysis on sectors which may sustain themselves over a period of Fed sanity. I usually hate surprises, but I'm sure there will probably be at least one.
    May 7 09:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Could U.S.-Russia Conflict Hurt Exxon Mobil? [View article]
    The Ukraine situation has been a huge eye-opener for NATO nations in Europe. Even if Putin were to reverse himself today, Europe won't forget. They will move to alter their strategic vulnerabilities.
    May 6 02:04 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment