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Retired Colonel

Retired Colonel
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  • A Bear Market Has 2 Phases [View article]
    Hi Reel,

    You’re correct that a common definition of “mean” is “average;” if that's what you meant; putting it very simply - the total divided by the sum of the parts. But that word has at least eight different definitions.

    In any case, the oldest and original was not what we would call an “average.” It also means “equally far from two extremes.” That definition is derived from the old French "meien," a variant of moiien “mid,” from the Late Latin medianus, meaning "of the middle.”

    So as the market, index, or stock varies either well above where it should be, as it appears to be now, or well below that point, as it apparently was in 2009 for example, it will experience pressures to return to its "rightful position" based upon all of the technical forces, world events, conditions and investor bias of the day. This morning's action may be just one example of this pressure and movement.

    And "revision," can, of course, mean: "to return to its previous state or position."

    So please excuse my being so academic in a forum such as this, but I hope this helps you.
    Aug 20, 2015. 09:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Bear Market Has 2 Phases [View article]
    Mellon and Run, you both probably define what the mean should be every time you make, or don't make, a move in the market. It's simply where a stock, index or mutual fund should be based on judgement, including fundamentals among all other considerations. If the price is too high, most people either sell or don't buy; if the price is too low, they buy or hold.

    Oh, by the way, this AM the S&P is reverting to where it should be at the moment in the minds of the the majority of investors. Hang on and fasten your seat belts.

    You folks are over-thinking this. Think about it, or, on second thought, maybe you shouldn't.
    Aug 20, 2015. 01:35 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Bear Market Has 2 Phases [View article]
    Reel, on the other hand, and until further notice, everyone is entitled to their opinion. And that includes each of us, even in the 21st century.
    Aug 20, 2015. 10:46 AM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Bear Market Has 2 Phases [View article]
    Good article, Eric, and very timely. There are only three certainties in life: death, taxes and reversion to the mean. We're about to see the third, and it will, for some, feel very much like the first two.
    Aug 20, 2015. 08:49 AM | 22 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yet Another Bearish Sign For Gold: Venezuela [View article]
    Let's put this into prospective, assuming, for purposes of argument, that the author is perfectly correct. How much bullion does Venezuela own versus the world total, and what China and India seem to regularly trade?
    Aug 17, 2015. 09:12 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canaccord Genuity's Joe Mazumdar Tells Gold Investors To Go Underground To Survive [View article]
    Thank you.
    Aug 14, 2015. 08:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Canaccord Genuity's Joe Mazumdar Tells Gold Investors To Go Underground To Survive [View article]
    Where's Pretium Resources (PVG) in all of this?
    Aug 12, 2015. 09:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Soft Economic Data Confirm The Commodity Price Story? [View article]
    "Earnings continued to beat (reduced) expectations." I'm shocked, shocked to see that earnings beat expectations yet again.

    Rick (Humphrey Bogart): "How can you close me up? On what grounds?"
    Captain Renault (Claude Rains): "I'm shocked, shocked to find that gambling is going on in here!"
    [A croupier hands Renault a pile of money.]
    Croupier: “Your winnings, Sir.”

    Casablanca, 1942.

    Some things just never change.
    Aug 2, 2015. 10:36 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Making Sense Of The China Stock Roller Coaster [View article]
    TMD, to clarify my thought:

    Given a zillion consumers + a people who are, by their nature, hard workers and savers, are fast learners, especially about technology, and are now learning all about investing + an economy growing three times faster than ours (I know, it might not be at 7% this year) + a government, although way over-controlling, is at least now allowing a market system + a gateway to the world through both Shanghai and Hong Kong = a very big and fast train moving our way.

    On the other hand, everybody is entitled to at least one opinion on most things.
    Jul 31, 2015. 10:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retail Stocks: Too Hot To Hold [View article]
    With real median income falling, yet retail and discretionary spending rising, the natural question is: where is the public getting the cash? Higher personal credit card use, especially if (relatively) lower interest rates for credit have actually been seen, appears to be perhaps one answer. Yet I haven't observed any data or articles on the subject. And if true, more personal debt might not be the best thing at the moment.
    Jul 30, 2015. 09:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Making Sense Of The China Stock Roller Coaster [View article]
    Thanks Eric for yet another outstanding technical analysis of a rather unique and really gigantic market. China can only have an increasingly important impact on world investing in future years.

    I made a few shekels when China A-shares opened to outside buyers, but I don't have a good feel for where they will be going from here; thus I'm currently out of that market. But I find it interesting that a large investment service such as Vanguard will soon start adding China shares to at least one of their sector ETFs. Buying into a region or sector, such as a group of emerging markets through one such large ETF, might be a good way to stick a big toe back into China waters. At the moment, it might be better than diving into the deep end by buying China shares directly all at one time.
    Jul 29, 2015. 05:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The End Of The 30-Year Bull Market For Bonds: Mitigating Portfolio Risk In A Rising Rate Environment [View article]
    Great Swami, it has been my opinion that general investors loved QE3 because of the free flow of liquidity which found its way into the market. Along with it came reduced rates, which was also seen as a boon to the market by forcing money out of bonds and into equities. A great one-two combination that has kept the market continuously rising since the crash of 2008.

    Then, first QE3 ended, and now the Fed continually teases us with rate increases. It is my opinion that investors see this as a double whammy against equities, combined with a market greatly over-valued by exactly what I have just described. Fear grows, only partly due to fundamentals, (one being slow growth in the economy).

    Thus, I see the public reacting negatively every time Yellen teases us with a rate increase, and a sigh of relief every time she backs off. I personally would very much prefer the market react to fundamentals and real events, and not by trying to predict or guess what the puppet-master at the Fed will do and say next week and next month.

    In a perfect world, and I know that's wishful dreaming, I can handle fear and greed based (hopefully) on somewhat sound investment decisions, but I don't enjoy playing the puppet to a lady who, I'm sure, did very well in the classroom at Berkeley. (I went to law school at U.C., I know something about that environment - it lacks real-life experience.)

    Just my opinion because you asked. And it doesn't mean I'm right.
    Jul 24, 2015. 09:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • September Or December: When Will The Fed Boost Rates? [View article]
    When? 2016.
    Jul 23, 2015. 11:36 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The End Of The 30-Year Bull Market For Bonds: Mitigating Portfolio Risk In A Rising Rate Environment [View article]
    The Fed has been "threatening" a rate increase for what seems like a very long time; it's always been right around the corner, until it was right around the next corner after that one. For the last nine months, I haven't believed Yellen and her crew would actually begin to raise them until 2016. But even if I'm wrong, they presumably will incrementally do it by an extremely small amount at the short end of the curve.

    I have never understood the perpetual panic at the thought of what might begin to happen at some point during the next year, except for the fear that has been created by all the talk. I fear that fear itself might ultimately become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
    Jul 23, 2015. 10:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eternal Sunshine Of The Spotless Investor Mind [View article]
    Grisly, thanks for your perspectives.

    You don't have to worry about me; I've made my share in the market, and as an old career prosecutor, I can take care of myself. But I do feel for members of the investing public who rely on this stuff when they read "Schmuck Corporation Beats Expectations!" These folks may learn the hard way, and sometimes that's a very hard way to learn.
    Jul 21, 2015. 06:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment