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Retired Colonel

Retired Colonel
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  • This QE Bower My Prison [View article]
    A continuously rising market, due in large part to Federal Reserve spending, has made those who invest in the market - happy. In fact, very happy. It's gone far beyond saving us years ago from a huge financial crises; a very worthy and needed initial move way back when.

    And it has been the function of this Fed, and this administration - to make people happy. And that makes perfect sense since the government is the only one who can make that happen. Remember, President Obama once said it wasn't the small business owner who deserved the credit for succeeding.

    Their mission has not been to allow our economy, and free enterprise in general, to flourish; or in the larger sense, to protect our citizens and provide those services which allow our country the freedom to be free. No, the Fed has seemed most concerned about feeding our market in the same way our administration spoon feeds our society - with money. And it has made our investors happy, as it does those unfortunate enough to be on the permanent dole - finding it more profitable not to work.

    Up until now, it has all made perfect sense; so what's the problem? Almost everybody has been made happy. Let's all pray QE never ends.
    Aug 31 11:27 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Stocks Set For A Major Decline In The Fall? [View article]
    Thanks Eric for an excellent glimpse of history.

    When the Fed first announced an autumn 2014 end for QE tapering, my first thought was - I wonder exactly how close to Black Tuesday of late October 1929 fame will that be?

    However, investors should have had enough time to factor that ending in, and other data and events have put the end of QE in the shadows to a very large degree. Now we seem to be fixated on the question of when will the Fed force rates up?

    Intuition should tell us the end of QE will probably be viewed as just another $10B decrease, admittedly the last, and more symbolic than anything. After all, those regular decreases of that same amount haven't had too much effect on the S&P so far.

    On the other hand, it's hard to calculate how the 100 billion brain neurons that are supposed to be in every trader's head will react on any given day. I haven't yet seen a chart analysis on that one.
    Aug 30 09:53 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profit Margins And 'Fairly Valued' U.S. Stock ETFs [View article]
    Aug 28 11:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profit Margins And 'Fairly Valued' U.S. Stock ETFs [View article]
    That was Einstein's General Law of Relativity, not his Second. Sorry Al.
    Aug 28 11:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profit Margins And 'Fairly Valued' U.S. Stock ETFs [View article]
    bbro, you don't understand "relatively" inflated. That doesn't mean everything is equally inflated, or is of the same size after inflation. A mouse and an elephant wouldn't necessarily become two elephants. I was trying to keep it simple.

    Don't feel bad, if it was an easy concept, it would have been postulated by a lesser man than Einstein long before 1915.

    On the other hand, maybe your example isn't in the bubble.
    Aug 28 10:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profit Margins And 'Fairly Valued' U.S. Stock ETFs [View article]
    Albert Einstein theorized that a man in an elevator which is in a free-fall toward the center of the earth wouldn't know that he was falling because everything around him is falling in a like manner. He called it his Second Law of Relativity.

    From standing outside a bubble, everything inside might appear inflated; but if you're inside the bubble, everything appears relatively normal, nothing appears inflated. The problem is: inside the bubble, everything is inflated, including your charts and data; and all the stocks and indexes around you.

    Of course that's just an old theory originally postulated by an old man in 1915. Right? Can't be applied to the market, right? Just a thought.
    Aug 28 09:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Crisis Less Extraordinary [View article]
    Thanks Eric, for putting past "crashes" into some perspective; facts upon which we can all ruminate. You and I seem to agree on a lot of things.

    "Whoever wishes to foresee the future must consult the past; for human events ever resemble those of preceding times. This arises from the fact that they are produced by men who ever have been, and ever shall be, animated by the same passions, and thus they necessarily have the same results."

    Aug 14 08:59 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Heading Into Jackson Hole [View article]
    Assuming Yellen learned anything at all from Bernanke's dithering:"Maybe we will, maybe we won't, but who knows when," she'll stick to the current taper expectations at Jackson Hole.
    Aug 13 11:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Basic Market Theory And Its Application [View article]
    I'm admittedly not an expert on the EWT, but I do believe it's easier to comprehend the further back you get from the trees. Take a look at the S&P since 2000. The average eight-year-old, if asked what they think is likely to occur next in that pattern, can give you a good guess, and I believe it'll sound a lot like the EWT.
    Aug 10 11:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oversold Everywhere [View article]
    Oversold? Tell me, what are we going to call it on the remote, extremely unlikely, and almost impossible, okay, let's call it impossible, chance that things get very, very ugly over the next 12-18 months? I was busy doing mostly other things in 2008; what did we call it then? Just curious.
    Aug 8 08:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Surprising New Portfolio Diversifier [View article]
    Dale, I agree, utilities have followed the market, and that means downward since late June. That's been a little surprising for me.

    It should be interesting to see if, assuming the market continues in a downward trend, utilities begin to act as an alternative for the money being withdrawn from the broader market.

    Also, that assumes the investing public believes the Fed will either hold off on its tapering schedule, or, more likely, any rate tapering is priced in already and we're still far enough away from any rate increase at this point to worry. To me that means that utilities are still on my watch list, but I'm not buying quite yet. It's a watch and see.
    Aug 8 11:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Surprising New Portfolio Diversifier [View article]
    Thanks Eric, for another timely and informative article.

    I sold VPU last month when it broke down through its 50 DMA, and I've had it on my watch list since then. Its continued down and now bounced off its lower 200 DMA, and I'd ordinarily have it in my cross hairs. But with a shaky market, and assuming utilities might again follow the market down, if it does break down through its 200 average on its second try, its a long way down from there. So the question becomes: will its 200 DMA continue to act as support if it tests it again?
    Aug 8 10:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Slow And Perilous Death Of Bull Markets [View article]
    cebu sun,

    So you set a stop and then go on with the rest of your life; and somebody picks off your stop or it executes slightly below your stop price. But you're also right about that now sold equity being on a boat about to cross the River Styx, maybe along with the rest of the market. Who would you rather be the seller or the buyer?
    Aug 7 06:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Slow And Perilous Death Of Bull Markets [View article]
    I concur, Captain. Stop-orders at times can be great if you don't start second guessing yourself half-way through your golf swing.

    Over the last two weeks, I set all my stops at 3%. I'm now 2/3 in cash, exiting most above my buy prices. I'll tell you one thing that's hard to argue with: I'm either right or I'm wrong!
    Aug 7 09:48 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Slow And Perilous Death Of Bull Markets [View article]
    Thanks Eric, excellent article.

    In either a death by jumping off a building, or one by buying into a bear market on an up-day, it's not the fall that kills you, it's the bounce.
    Aug 7 09:16 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment