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Seekingalfalfa

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  • Should People Listen To John Hussman's Forecasts? [View article]
    Wow - frankly I am a bit surprised that Larry is getting this much pushback for touting value investing over market timing. When people start referring to Buffett as a market timer, I know it is time for me to tune out...
    May 8 03:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Going On With GASFRAC? [View article]
    Folks - you need to get out into the fields and talk with the engineers. Gasfrac's product is neither novel nor disruptive. The gelled LPG process has been around for decades. It has never caught on and likely never will.
    May 8 11:17 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should People Listen To John Hussman's Forecasts? [View article]
    "but I don't agree at all about not trying to time the market."

    Huh? I don't think that word means what you think it means...
    May 8 10:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should People Listen To John Hussman's Forecasts? [View article]
    I have followed Hussman for the past 25 years, ever since he wrote a subscription market letter back in the 1990's called "Hussman Econometrics". For anyone that has followed Hussman for that long, his current struggles are just deja vu all over again.

    I'm fairly certain he has never captured the majority of any bull market over the past two dozen years. He got too defensive too quickly in the 1990's and essentially missed the the bull market in the second half of that decade. He was so wrong for so long that he essentially went out of business. He returned in the summer of 2000 with a new mutual fund (HSGFX) and, no surprise, was still entirely bearish. Because he was fully hedged during the market's subsequent decline (not to mention that he was short growth stocks and long value stocks - a losing trade to that point), his little fund gained significant attention and assets. The stopped clock was finally right! He parlayed that fortuitous timing and a very smart weekly letter into $6 billion in assets.

    But here we are again. Hussman has been hedged through nearly the entirety of one of the top 5 bull markets on record. He blames the Fed, he blames investors, but the blame belongs to him. He has developed a mythology around his horrific miss as resulting from a fiduciary driven "insistence on stress testing" against Depression-era data in 2009/2010 - a claim for which I find precious little evidence in the weekly letters he wrote and the interviews he gave at that time.

    Interestingly, when writing of that period, he seems to admit that he did not know what to do - claiming his model was positive, but he wasn't sure that model was relevant any more (classic emotional knee-jerk response - aka: fear), so he defaulted to a fully hedged position. Get that? Hussman was at a complete loss as to what to do - so he defaults to the most defensive position his fund could take. Does he move to align his portfolio with the S&P 500 (which he and his clients are measuring him against)? No. Does he put half the money back to work? After all, 50% exposure at the 2009 bear market bottom might make some sense - given, as he claims, that his model was positive. No - HIS default position was fully hedged. And he wonders why he is called a "perma-bear".

    If nothing else, he certainly underappreciates how risky it is (or how cocky it is) to take no risk. Is he not acquainted with opportunity risk? Who can possibly be so cock sure that the market won't rise that they take no risk at all despite taking fees from clients who are paying them to be right? And, despite his insistence that it is not market timing, it most certainly is.

    Look, Hussman is a very smart guy. He is also a very charitable and nice man. But, in my opinion, he is not a good investor. If a quantitative model could, in and of itself, make a person rich, the guys at NASA would all be billionaires.
    May 7 11:41 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Faces Major Hurdles [View article]
    duc - my comment was not directed in anyway at you, so I don't know why you are directing your comment at me. You gave a "+1 Like " for Michael428's comment? Why? All he did was insult the author of the article. Yes, by all means, let's have more of that on Seeking Alpha. Very productive.

    Moreover, the remainder your post is convoluted:

    "We don't fall in "love" with our stocks we don't like"? What does that even mean?

    You ask me to present me "arguments as to why this should be a high-flying stock"? I think AMZN is very overpriced. What in my initial reply would have indicated that I thought otherwise?


    May 6 12:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Faces Major Hurdles [View article]
    Wow - when one cannot bring any facts to the table, they sling mud. Nice, Michael428.

    Here's a tip for you, Michael: don't fall in love with your stocks.
    Apr 23 01:06 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Set To Grow [View article]
    Four months? You thought you could predict the price of CHK over a four month period? Where were you when the stock was at 17 a year ago?

    You bought it after the rally in Natural Gas prices and a 60% rise in the stock and you are disappointed? Go figure. What was your thesis?
    Mar 14 01:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Share Of Netflix Vs. A Tulip Bulb In Amsterdam 1637: Nosebleed Valuation [View article]
    Great - another SA article with zero analysis...
    Mar 13 01:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon: The Good, The Bad And The Algorithm [View article]
    Funny - I would think that someone who claims to be as certain and confident as you are about AMZN would not feel the need to refute/dispute every less-than-glowing comment about the company.
    Mar 6 11:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon: The Good, The Bad And The Algorithm [View article]
    Very poignant comments, LongTruth - and likely to be ignored my most on this forum. Your CSCO example is dead on. I find it curious that people regard a straight forward dealing in facts as "whining". It tells you a lot about where that "investor" is coming from....
    Mar 6 10:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hussman: Topping Patterns And The Proper Cause For Optimism [View article]
    I recently perused Hussman's weekly market commentaries, and it appears that he has been defensive since the Fall of 2009. That was four and half years ago and 150% lower. His voodoo box, since it is an econometric model, is backward looking and can't handle unprecedented circumstances (like QE, technology driven margin enhancements, etc). He may be a very smart guy, but he is a very naive investor.
    Feb 20 11:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Given Positive Catalysts, Is Now The Time To Buy Chesapeake Energy? [View article]
    Good riddance? It's on its way to 40. You are leaving a bunch of $ on the table. I'm not an optimist. Just a realist. I have been closely following this company for several years now. They are finally on track and I am way long.
    Feb 19 12:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Given Positive Catalysts, Is Now The Time To Buy Chesapeake Energy? [View article]
    You guys gotta be kidding. This company is FINALLY on track. The market simply has not recognized it yet. They have first class people running the company now - a great board - they are getting their balance sheet in order - commodity prices are strong - they are cutting excess costs - the Board owns a ton of stock...

    This is a straight up BUY.
    Feb 6 10:28 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • John Hussman: The Diva Is Already Singing [View article]
    LOL. These comments are more fun to read (and actually more useful!) than Hussman's letter...
    Dec 23 01:09 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • John Hussman: The Elephant In The Room [View article]
    Fund managers make more money by charging fees than they do by investing their own capital (or borrowed capital) into their own investment strategies. Do the math.
    Dec 17 01:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
91 Comments
114 Likes