Don-100

9 Comments

    • Dollar Rally Won't Last Forever; Don't Give Up on Gold [view article]
      I wish I were as certain of the upcoming performance of gold miners as you are. I do believe that gold will sooner or later bottom and then rise nicely. I think, though, that ease of investing in gold via an ETF (like GLD) may have reduced the attractiveness of gold miners. If you look at the performance of miners vs gold for the last few gold uplegs since 2001 you will see that the miners' outperformance vs gold has been diminishing, especially since the appearance of GLD in late 2005. Your historical relationships do not factor this in. And now with the double-gold ETF, this makes it even easier to profit from gold without having to take on all the risk of the miners. Aug 14 11:01 PM
    • Gold Is At a Critical Juncture [view article]
      Don't forget that gold is typically seasonally weak during the summer. Here is a good analysis of this: www.zealllc.com/2008/g....

      Historically gold has held its value, essentially neutralizing the affect of inflation. There are a number of factors that point to elevated inflation in the US. Many believe that the slowdown in the US (and then the world) economy will blunt these inflationary pressures. But if that's true, won't stocks be hurt by this slowdown? At current P/Es, equities don't appear attractive to me.

      I exited my precious metal positions in mid-March of this year and am eagerly waiting to get back in. By design, I begin establishing a new position slowly and only after gold has proven to me that it is most likely beginning a new uptrend. The test that has worked in the past for this is (1) gold price being at or below its 200-day simple moving average and (2) gold price 50-day simple moving average beginning to slope upwards. Yes, I'll never buy at the bottom with this strategy. But, I rarely get faked into buying a blip that fizzles out. Good Luck!!!       Aug 10 04:28 PM
    • Gold Losing Its Shine? [view article]
      Remember, July and August are historically low seasonality periods for gold prices. They are often the best times of the year to stock up on cheaper gold. September typically sees gold prices begin to pick up. This seasonal run up, on average, then runs out of upward steam in early February. Gold prices, obviously, don't always follow their historical pattern, but they often do. IMHO the secular gold bull has a long way up to go. For a detailed analysis of this see www.zealllc.com/2008/p.... Aug 05 06:55 AM
    • Gold: Buy Signal Approaching [view article]
      For those interested in extensive analysis of gold price seasonality, you may want to check out www.zealllc.com/. I have been following this site for several years now and it has really improved my understanding of the precious metals market. While they offer a newsletter for a fee, the general knowledge from the free portion of their site has been sufficient for one to trade precious metals (and other investments) quite successfully. And no, I do not have any relationship with them, other than I finally decided a couple of years ago to purchase their newsletter. I felt guilty making money from their free info. Good Luck! Jul 28 07:12 AM
    • A Gold Bull Stops Running [view article]
      One could argue that gold is overbought currently, as happened in May of 2006. This does not change the facts that the long term fundamentals are strongly bullish. Apr 23 07:56 AM
    • Fannie May Fail - Barron's [view article]
      think gold and silver Mar 09 08:59 PM
    • Gold Pulls Back - Is There a Deeper Correction Ahead? [view article]
      I agree that gold (as well as silver) will correct soon. I am long both. But rather than sell off my positions, I've elected to put in trailing stops. It is just too difficult to judge when the top has been hit. So, I'm willing to let the market tell me. Yes, I will not get out at the top. And yes, I did not get in on the bottom. But I'm now positioned to take one hell of a chunk out of the middle. While my stops are now on the generous side (10% for gold and 14% for silver), I'll likely tighten them as we move towards May. Once the correction comes I'll be patient. I'll wait until gold and silver come closer to their 200 day moving averages. I'll also probably wait until their 50 day moving averages begin to turn up. While this guarantees that I'll miss the bottom, it also increases the probability that I'll buy into a true uptrend. Then, I'll buy in slowly. Bless the soul of whoever created low-cost online brokers that keep my trading costs down to an insignificant level. My very profitable education in precious metals came from this free website: www.zealllc.com/essays.... They do sell a newsletter for about $119/year, but it is not necessary in order to understand their method and learn from their analysis. It does require effort to read through their weekly essays, but they are truly terrific. Out of guilt, I finally started to buy their newsletter. Hey, I was making an annual return of many hundreds of times the cost of the newsletter WITHOUT purchasing it. Morally, I just couldn't keep trading on the knowledge that I gained from their weekly essays without purchasing the newsletter, which has helped somewhat to improve my returns. Good luck! Mar 06 05:27 PM
    • Hedge Fund Stock Games, Gold Remains Firmly Bid [view article]
      I bullish on gold and gold stocks also. Regarding GLD, however, I've noticed that beginning 7/30/07 it has not been performing as well as gold. Historically, it has been dead on, so something seems to be happening. Any ideas? Aug 24 12:50 PM
    • Yamana-Northern Orion-Meridian Merger Doesn't Look Likely to UBS [view article]
      As a shareholder of AUY, I agree with the above comment. And that is MY money that Marone is using for this "bought kingdom!" The under-performance of the HUI needs to come to an end. Repeated negative earnings surprises are certainly not helping. Hmm... let me see: a 53X TTM P/E vs 31X for the industry, and a 30X TTM P/CF vs 17X for the industry. Seems like expectations are pretty high. Now would be a good time to start delivering.

      Don       Aug 24 12:37 PM
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