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  • BDCL Will Pay A Lower Quarterly Dividend, But Still Be Yielding 15.5% [View article]
    Absolutely agree. You will not be stopped out IMO on double leveraged ETN fund. You will be stopped out on double leveraged ETN funds if you use margin to purchase these in event of significant downturn, say 20%.
    Sep 24 01:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BDCL Will Pay A Lower Quarterly Dividend, But Still Be Yielding 15.5% [View article]
    Fantastic, I will run some basic analysis on this and let you know. Just based on 55% drop in prices in the single index (from about 150 to about 66) in 2008, that would be a world of hurt in double leveraged CEFL. So I anticipate buying at every 25% drop would be prudent.

    You certainly would come out looking good at this time point. The issue is then, when do you turn off dividend reinvestment? When NAV goes above price?
    Sep 24 11:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BDCL Will Pay A Lower Quarterly Dividend, But Still Be Yielding 15.5% [View article]
    If you are using margin, a 20% correction in market will equate to something like 40% correction in double leveraged product - of course, depends which product. You margin will be called.

    On the other hand, strategy of buying double leveraged products in some diversified portfolio with clear strategy of doubling holding every 15 or 20% drop will likely pay off well - assuming you have deep enough pockets and sound strategy. I haven't done the numbers yet, but CEFL in particular - due to its diversification - appears like a good player in this regard. Of course, problem is that CEFs are leveraged as well, adding another level of complexity.
    Sep 24 11:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BDCL Will Pay A Lower Quarterly Dividend, But Still Be Yielding 15.5% [View article]
    That's Vegas. Certainly with any meaningful downturn, you will be stopped out.
    Sep 24 09:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BDCL Will Pay A Lower Quarterly Dividend, But Still Be Yielding 15.5% [View article]
    Doesn't quite work out like you think. If you have significant correction, these numbers will not look as rosy. Leverage increases downside and upside. Buyer beware.

    Now, putting significant funds in these at the bottom of significant correction - very nice. Of course, internal this will prove very difficult to most.

    Long small position in CEFL
    Sep 24 09:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BDCL Will Pay A Lower Quarterly Dividend, But Still Be Yielding 15.5% [View article]
    CEFL is the real winner. It's incredibly diversified with exceedingly high yield for its risk. A theoretical excercise with doubling in holdings of CEFL at say 15 or 20% NAV correction would have resulted in immense returns. Anyone interested in running such excercise through 2008/9 correction and its following melt up?
    Sep 23 10:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy Strikes A Deal With Exxon [View article]
    List all those 100 companies with yield of 10% or more.. I don't think it's that easy - and don't include terminal trusts in that list.
    Sep 23 05:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Long-Term Outlook - Bleak! [View article]
    The market never has the answer for the future crisis - since it's the one thing that's not priced. If you step back in history, every era had 'earth-shattering' moments, just different etiology and progression. I don't expect this to be different in the future - crises will come and go. GDP per capita of US increases or decreases (unless significant) will have little effect to no effect on valuation of US markets. Why? Because such higher percentage of earnings in SP500 rely on foreign revenue. Because so much of investment dollars in US market are now coming from abraod. We are now in global market with international corporations as the players.
    Sep 21 11:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Heavy Gold And Silver Futures Shorting Is Actually Very Bullish [View article]
    Oil bottomed in $40 during Great Recession, below cost of production for lots of majors. Therefore, in short term, prices can go quite low. Of course, long term we are now looking at $90 plus oil.

    So, buying at or below cost of production and adding at each 10-20% drop in price is not a bad strategy - if you can wait up to 12 months. You will be right in that time horizon, traders be damned.

    So questions to ask is what is silver's and gold's cost of production? $20 and $1200, roughly?
    Sep 14 10:51 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Low In Silver; Lower Low In Gold Still To Come [View article]
    My view of silver - production costs somewhere between $16 to $20. If silver is below that, buy some. If it drops 10-20%, buy more. At some point in the future, silver will have to be above cost of production, such is economics.
    Sep 14 10:23 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Risk of FOMC hawkishness not priced in says Citi [View news story]
    This is garbage. These people are collecting paychecks dissecting language from people who wishfully think they know what they doing. It's equivalent to making a living interpreting the Oracle's ambiguous predictions.
    Sep 12 08:28 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There's Very Little Chance Of Beating A Balanced Portfolio From Here [View article]
    I feel that bond/stock portfolios have run their cycle. Due to high debt levels of developed nations, sovereign bonds can't be considered safe as before. This is creating new problems for balanced portfolio - bonds wont be the safe asset they were before.

    So I think it's time to diversify into other asset classes as part of balanced portfolio - international stocks, REITs, MLPs, preferred shares, direct PM holdings. What is the right mix? I have yet to figure out - but I know it's not the same old 60/40 stock/bond basket that granfather used to talk about. I think one has to anticipate game changing deflationary and inflationary pressures - and that's hard to game for.
    Sep 11 01:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • OPEC sees slower demand for its oil thanks to U.S. shale surge [View news story]
    Bingo. And since US oil price is driven by the market and not crazy OPEC agendas, this is positive for US and the world - supply and demand driven oil pricing.
    Sep 11 12:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • All You Need To Know About ECB's Quantitative Easing [View article]

    I feel long equity Italy or Spain (my favorite) is a play - if you anticipate similar effects of future bond purchases in Europe by ECB/banks as Fed executed in the US. The other option is currency hedged European equities in general.
    Aug 29 09:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • European Bond Market: Bubble Of All Bubbles! [View article]
    I don't think you can paint all of Europe or its industries with one brush. I think Northern European countries like Norway, Sweden, Finland, Poland, and few Eastern European countries are competitive. Italy will be competitive in tiles, shoes, porcelain. Spanish and Greek olives are best buy out there.
    Aug 28 03:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment