The smart money is selling, writes Ukarlewitz, commenting on the plummeting Smart Money/Dumb Money Confidence Index from SentimenTrader. The measure has a reasonable track record over the last few years at pointing out market tops and bottoms, and it's screaming "top" right now. Whether it's a 5% correction or something worse remains to be seen, but insiders see something bad coming and they're bailing out. [View news story]
I don't think it's that good of an indicator - just look at the patterns.. No magic bullet out there...
Redefining Yield With Cambria Shareholder Yield ETF [View article]
This is so different from VIG... More like mixture of share buyback ETF and dividend appreciation ETF. Good one to put on watch list and see how it performs under market weight..
Apple (AAPL) releases Tim Cook's official statement (.pdf) to the Senate ahead of his Tuesday appearance at a hearing on corporate tax payments. Among other things, Apple claims it paid ~$6B in federal taxes in FY12 and a 30.5% effective federal tax rate, and that its foreign units don't engage in the practices the hearing focuses on (the shifting of IP to offshore havens, revolving loans from subsidiaries, etc). The company proposes a tax system that's "revenue neutral, eliminates all tax expenditures, lowers tax rates and implements a reasonable tax on foreign earnings." (previous) [View news story]
Well, than its the fault of US government not to negotiate payment from S Koreans for defending their homeland. It's easy - you pay us or we leave. Projection of force doesn't matter as much anymore as it used to..
If we keep moving up like this, stocks could go "parabolic," says Art Cashin. The stocks that have the heaviest short positions have already raced ahead of the indices, and they are going to crumble if we keep going. (Video). [View news story]
Haa haa!!! I love when people use terms they don't really understand - 'parabolic' versus 'exponential'. Actually, I agree with Art, stocks are about to go parabolic - or maybe they are getting close to that peak:).
Use Linn Energy To Build Income Now [View article]
Cliff,
I think 1000 UBIT income is a total allowed for all IRA accounts - otherwise you could open multiple IRA accounts and skip UBTI issues for MLPs in IRA altogether.
There are other tax complexities that even IRS is not clear on - so tread carefully. Of course LNCO may be a good substitute as an nonMLP wrapper for MLP LINE.
Chesapeake Granite Wash Trust - The Good, Bad, And Ugly News In Q1 Results [View article]
Well, trust prospectus essentially forces them to drill the wells they have promised. They cannot skip out on this or even significantly underdeliver - they will be sued. In fact, CHK may face lawsuits regardless.
U.S. LNG Exports - No Cause For Alarm [View article]
I think long term lets open the route for nat gas to go elsewhere, no problem. It still costs money to ship it elsewhere, so cost of shipping will price nat gas elsewhere higher.
There is a way where nat gas producers, midstream companies, chemical companies all benefit - and that's slow adoption of some LNG exports. Having nat gas go elsewhere is free market and that will ultimately lead to higher nat gas prices and nat gas price stability.
Chesapeake Granite Wash Trust - The Good, Bad, And Ugly News In Q1 Results [View article]
That was my question as well - why are their realized NG price lower than market price? This means they may not participate as much in NG upside as one might think.
Alan, CHK does have an incentive to do a good job on the wells - they hold units without threshold incentive - meaning this directly effect their bottom line as well. The only exception is that they have given up on the trust, but that doesn't appear to be the case with 3 versus 4 wells per pad announcement.
Emerging Markets And The Case Of The Disappearing Dividends [View article]
Thomas, great article. It's been clear for awhile that big investment houses recommendation for BRICs investing is overdone. Of course, the big guys have already exited their positions - thankfully I've managed to exit mine as well. The story with new emerging market economies like Turkey and Indonesia look appealing right now, but I suspect these countries will change their free market economics to punish foreign investors, as BRICs have done, just give it time.
So my only strategy in emerging markets have been putting money into dividend paying emerging market plays like SDIV.
And it's time to place some money into those developed undervalued European dividend paying equities as well:).
More on Japan Q1 GDP: Rising stock prices boost consumers' willingness to spend, in a partial confirmation of the effectiveness of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's economic policies. On the other hand, capex falls 0.7% Q/Q on expectations of a 0.7% increase, proof the corporate sector is still skeptical regarding fiscal and monetary authorities' ability to wrest the country from the grip of deflation. The Nikkei slips 0.11% in early trading and the yen gains 0.2% against the dollar to ¥102.03. [View news story]
I'm guessing this pushes Europe to do the same thing.. Long European equities, hedged euro:)
Bill Powers: Pickens And Stansberry Wrong, Shale Gas Production To Fall [View article]
Bill Powers is right that there is quick decline curves on tight natural gas wells, and at some point new drilling will not be able replace the drawdowns. However, I think there is enough land to drill out there for long time in investment horizon - on the order of decade, two, or three. So, Bill, you will be right someday.
The mortgage REIT sector (MORT -1%) continues under pressure, today led by Western Asset Mortgage (WMC -7.6%) as its book value blew up in Q1 thanks to portfolio losses. American Capital Agency (AGNC -1.5%) - which started the downturn when it reported losses 2 weeks ago - nears a 52-week low, Armour Residential (ARR -3.1%) hits one. One trader suggests Capstead Mortgage (CMO -1.4%) with a portfolio of mostly reset ARMs the least affected by rising rates. CYS Investments (CYS -0.7%) - trading at a 10% discount to book and also owning ARMs - is attractive as well. [View news story]
How about MORT is a buy now.. AGNC used to be the best of breed, well, maybe not so much right now..
The Big 4 Economic Indicators: Nonfarm Employment [View article]
Actually, my viewing of the charts has pointed out an interesting observation - retail sales appear to be leading indicator of recessions. Additionally, retail sales drops of over 2% is worriesome for recession, and retail sales drop of over 4% is nearly diagnostic of one.
Sandridge Could Be Further Negatively Impacted By Poor Trust Well Performance [View article]
Josh, From viewpoint of SD shareholder, your points have some merit. From viewpoint of SD trusts, what you wrote is incomplete. There are issues of oil/NGL/gas spreads, changes in rig counts, timing of wells coming online that affect each trusts distributions independently. Majority of responses from trust owners will simply point out incomplete investment analysis which you provided.
The smart money is selling, writes Ukarlewitz, commenting on the plummeting Smart Money/Dumb Money Confidence Index from SentimenTrader. The measure has a reasonable track record over the last few years at pointing out market tops and bottoms, and it's screaming "top" right now. Whether it's a 5% correction or something worse remains to be seen, but insiders see something bad coming and they're bailing out. [View news story]
Redefining Yield With Cambria Shareholder Yield ETF [View article]
Apple (AAPL) releases Tim Cook's official statement (.pdf) to the Senate ahead of his Tuesday appearance at a hearing on corporate tax payments. Among other things, Apple claims it paid ~$6B in federal taxes in FY12 and a 30.5% effective federal tax rate, and that its foreign units don't engage in the practices the hearing focuses on (the shifting of IP to offshore havens, revolving loans from subsidiaries, etc). The company proposes a tax system that's "revenue neutral, eliminates all tax expenditures, lowers tax rates and implements a reasonable tax on foreign earnings." (previous) [View news story]
If we keep moving up like this, stocks could go "parabolic," says Art Cashin. The stocks that have the heaviest short positions have already raced ahead of the indices, and they are going to crumble if we keep going. (Video). [View news story]
Looking At Fundamental Questions In MLP Investment [View article]
Use Linn Energy To Build Income Now [View article]
I think 1000 UBIT income is a total allowed for all IRA accounts - otherwise you could open multiple IRA accounts and skip UBTI issues for MLPs in IRA altogether.
There are other tax complexities that even IRS is not clear on - so tread carefully. Of course LNCO may be a good substitute as an nonMLP wrapper for MLP LINE.
Chesapeake Granite Wash Trust - The Good, Bad, And Ugly News In Q1 Results [View article]
U.S. LNG Exports - No Cause For Alarm [View article]
There is a way where nat gas producers, midstream companies, chemical companies all benefit - and that's slow adoption of some LNG exports. Having nat gas go elsewhere is free market and that will ultimately lead to higher nat gas prices and nat gas price stability.
Chesapeake Granite Wash Trust - The Good, Bad, And Ugly News In Q1 Results [View article]
Alan, CHK does have an incentive to do a good job on the wells - they hold units without threshold incentive - meaning this directly effect their bottom line as well. The only exception is that they have given up on the trust, but that doesn't appear to be the case with 3 versus 4 wells per pad announcement.
Emerging Markets And The Case Of The Disappearing Dividends [View article]
So my only strategy in emerging markets have been putting money into dividend paying emerging market plays like SDIV.
And it's time to place some money into those developed undervalued European dividend paying equities as well:).
More on Japan Q1 GDP: Rising stock prices boost consumers' willingness to spend, in a partial confirmation of the effectiveness of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's economic policies. On the other hand, capex falls 0.7% Q/Q on expectations of a 0.7% increase, proof the corporate sector is still skeptical regarding fiscal and monetary authorities' ability to wrest the country from the grip of deflation. The Nikkei slips 0.11% in early trading and the yen gains 0.2% against the dollar to ¥102.03. [View news story]
Bill Powers: Pickens And Stansberry Wrong, Shale Gas Production To Fall [View article]
The mortgage REIT sector (MORT -1%) continues under pressure, today led by Western Asset Mortgage (WMC -7.6%) as its book value blew up in Q1 thanks to portfolio losses. American Capital Agency (AGNC -1.5%) - which started the downturn when it reported losses 2 weeks ago - nears a 52-week low, Armour Residential (ARR -3.1%) hits one. One trader suggests Capstead Mortgage (CMO -1.4%) with a portfolio of mostly reset ARMs the least affected by rising rates. CYS Investments (CYS -0.7%) - trading at a 10% discount to book and also owning ARMs - is attractive as well. [View news story]
The Big 4 Economic Indicators: Nonfarm Employment [View article]
Sandridge Could Be Further Negatively Impacted By Poor Trust Well Performance [View article]
From viewpoint of SD shareholder, your points have some merit. From viewpoint of SD trusts, what you wrote is incomplete. There are issues of oil/NGL/gas spreads, changes in rig counts, timing of wells coming online that affect each trusts distributions independently. Majority of responses from trust owners will simply point out incomplete investment analysis which you provided.