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RM13

RM13
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  • Gold: A Bright Shining Lie? [View article]
    There is CPI and perceived future CPI. Those are two separate issues, and while current CPI is low, I think masses are preparing for coming inflation.
    Apr 18, 2013. 04:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold: Where Are We Now? [View article]
    If there was too much artificial push to let the gold prices fall off the cliff, the big guys would have closed their shorts already. In fact, they already started going long. If that is the case, gold and silver will find their support and slowly ratch up again, until next such tilt is found.
    Apr 18, 2013. 03:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Mississippian Trust II - Good News Buried In Proven Reserve Report [View article]
    Did you account how much dividend will this pay out between now and September option expiration?
    Apr 18, 2013. 03:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold: Where Are We Now? [View article]
    I'm becoming more convinced that this was 'precipitated' by conglomeration of brokerage houses. The commodity market was overleveraged long, and these guys decided to talk short publicly and follow their own word by dumping bunch of gold holdings onto the market. I'm sure nothing will ever be found to suggest this as well.

    On the other hand, it's likely that central banks (maybe outside of China's) had nothing to do with this. They may have been applauding, but they can't be directly involved in this, I'm sure.
    Apr 18, 2013. 03:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • One of the stranger outcomes of gold's collapse is to make gold miners look more expensive, which Nomura says means more downside for the miners. "Lower levels of investment demand have the equilibrium point for the gold price at still lower levels. [If so], the equities should still have further to retrace." It's another down day for South African miners: HMY -5.6%, GOLD -4.5%, AU -4%, GFI -1.2%. (also[View news story]
    I agree, GGN at these levels is a good move. Initiated mine in low 12s, added more at low 11s, will add more on 10 to 20 percent drops.
    Apr 18, 2013. 01:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • At current prices, 15% of global gold miners probably are now underwater, according to Nomura's Tyler Broda, who also predicts gold could fall to as low as $1,000/oz. this year. Companies relying on a single asset and those in Africa, already struggling with deteriorating geopolitical risk, will find it more difficult to convince banks to fund projects, Broda says. [View news story]
    Until SLW gets into being overleveraged itself...
    Apr 18, 2013. 11:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold: Where Are We Now? [View article]
    My thoughts are that if recent gold/commodity selloff was 'artificially precipitated' without underlying fundamentals, there should be a quick rebound - matter of few weeks or months. If this recent selloff had more fundamental nature, there will be no quick rebound. Market will tell its true story soon.
    Apr 18, 2013. 10:46 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Worried About A Silver Selloff? Buy Silver Wheaton Instead [View article]
    Federal government essentially capped gold prices during Great Depression. With that level of involvment, insight from gold prices during Great Depression shine very limited light on gold prices and gold miners today.

    Finally, if recent gold/commodity selloff was 'artificially precipitated' without underlying fundamentals, there should be a quick rebound - matter of few weeks or months. If this recent selloff had more fundamental nature, there will be no quick rebound. Market will tell its true story soon.
    Apr 18, 2013. 09:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The True All-In Cost To Mine Gold: Complete 2012 Figures [View article]
    If 95% of market participants are shorting (and they are not), this baby is about to be turned upside down. Price is determined by number of buyers and sellers and once you cannot attract more sellers, price stabilizes.

    Like I said in other comments, in few years, price of gold and gold miners will be higher than current price. Gold to stock or gold miner to stock ratios are near their extremes.
    Apr 17, 2013. 11:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Worried About A Silver Selloff? Buy Silver Wheaton Instead [View article]
    I'm not a gold bug, but I have placed a small bet in gold miners and junior gold miners, thankfully only recently.

    The chart you posted, including homestake, does not show any real losses over the period of Great Depression. Why should analysis excluding homestake be of any validity?

    Finally, wasn't gold confiscated and capped in price during Great Depression - that makes your conclusions close to useless.

    Additionally, junior gold miner ETF like GDXJ is already over 70% off its high. Granted, in dot com era those losses might have gone as high as 90% in some exchange traded products and mutual funds, we are closer to the bottom than the top.
    Apr 17, 2013. 08:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Worried About A Silver Selloff? Buy Silver Wheaton Instead [View article]
    That's my thinking as well. If SLW's contracts are in danger due to decimation of silver and gold miners, SLW is really not a buy as much as anyone would have you believe.
    Apr 17, 2013. 08:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware The Risk Of Stock Liquidation [View article]
    Great article.

    What the recent sell off in gold shows is how overtilted into long positions on gold the bets have become. Stock market was recently similarly leveraged, but there is quite a bit of inverse fund buying going on right now.

    If decline in markets proceeds slowly, there will be time for investors to exit and put protection in place - it will be controlled exit. If the fall happens as switfly as it did with gold, downfall will be fast and brutal.

    Next 2 weeks are critical in this regard. After all, option expirations happen at the end of this week. This Friday and Monday's actions will be very foretelling.
    Apr 17, 2013. 08:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Canada - Running Out of Luck? [View article]
    Wow, what accusations thrown at Mark Carney, not so different from those hurled at Greenspan/Bernanke. I do wonder if low interest rates kept for too long just cause increased volatility in value of goods - they lead to speculation and bets on the economy and commodities - since those bets are cheap to place.
    Apr 17, 2013. 06:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Japan Create Inflation Or Just Export Deflation? [View article]
    Number19, agree that future is much more of an unknown than it has been in the past generation. I venture a guess that we are in similar waters to those who struggled through Great Depression. They lost faith in stock market, wanted to be debt free, focused on savings. Then due to WWII and American victory, American experiment flourished.

    I think we are in same age of unknown they faced. I suspect there will be lots of trials and tribulations, including market drops and likely another recession or two before world's economic picture clarifies itself. I hope that US emerges as a victor again, but that's not a given. At least what is clear is that US is in much better situation than Europe and Japan.
    Apr 17, 2013. 06:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Reason For The Plunge In Gold And Silver That Every Astute Investor Should Understand [View article]
    Someone orchestrated this to precipitate selloff, since too many people were leveraged bullish. It's one or multiple brokerage houses, likely in cahouts. Add the fact that margin requirements were raised on Monday as well - heck, makes you wonder if that wasn't planned and someone wasn't tipped to that as well.
    Apr 16, 2013. 08:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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