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moatfrog

moatfrog
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  • Are The Bulls Aiming At Another Record High Or Planning An Unnoticed Orderly Exit? [View article]
    Much of the sentiment suggested in the article has been expressed by many actual financial pundits over the last 3 years. This stock market loves to hear this kind of take. Those who aspire to see market weakness will find it most any month depending on analysis methods.

    It's always been about wages -- not jobs that make both spouses work. Much of the money coming out of some of the huge index funds is being diverted to investments overseas. Many consider it a good time to allocate funds to foreign markets.

    Yes, as the author suggests, stay alert. Then what? Just be aware that for this bull market to continue, it needs fuel. Articles expressing negative sentiment will continue fueling this bull for some time. Don't fret if you haven't a clue as to how long this bull continues -- like the author, you are not alone.
    Feb 18, 2015. 09:44 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coca-Cola: 2015 Will Be A Transition Year [View article]
    Coke is already on the right path (back), selling milk.
    Feb 12, 2015. 09:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America: Are You Ready For Some Big Upside Potential? [View article]
    I like your comment. It reflects like sentiment from a past client who has nothing to say positive about any of the business I did with so many of their inept reps.
    Feb 11, 2015. 09:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For 'Risk On'? [View article]
    "....preparing for a volatile sideways market in 2014 with a bias to the upside." Great work!
    Feb 9, 2015. 09:56 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Water Utilities: American Water Works, Aqua America Are The Best Fundamental Selections [View article]
    Water and no actual representation of exactly what adds to all diminishing supplies is lacking here. The sector is NOT represented! If there is no water what good is adding infrastructure or more pumping stations? The most appropriate answer is to spread it! Yep, irrigation works, but at some point it becomes cost prohibitive and not practical. More technology needs to be tapped into the water cycle to get the stuff to critical usage points. Those who drink it and those who need it to sustain the crops that feed us get my vote. The Southwest, regardless of heavy rains (mostly lost through wasteful run-off, still has no snow cap! The most intelligent way of turning this around is to use desalinization technology. CWCO is one, but it's dragging its butt. Another, believe it or not, is Lockheed Marten, the big defense contractor whose thin single carbon layer technology could change everything once it's able to be produced in mass quantity. In the meantime the positions mentioned here stay out of my portfolio.
    Feb 8, 2015. 02:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Water Utilities: American Water Works, Aqua America Are The Best Fundamental Selections [View article]
    Thanks, for the reply. Agreed, the bonds come later!
    Feb 8, 2015. 01:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For 'Risk On'? [View article]
    It's ludicrous that you should choose the energy sector as a knock down sector. What else don't we know? By the way, CVX is down 2.29% YTD. Of course, you didn't specify an exact time frame -- so you are sparred. You again skirt by the issue of sectors that should perform this year. You did mention looking at last year's losers as candidates should investors care to engage a sector rotation strategy. Besides the obvious energy, what are some others? If you can tell us, you must surely see something other than what becomes obvious should one take the time to research/read business cycle updates -- there appears nothing noteworthy. However, a worthy possible contender is Fidelity's approach. The popular contention is that we are midway through a business expansion. I accept that as obvious.

    What I do not accept (from anyone -- pundits and economic scholars alike) is what sectors look ravishing going ahead. To differentiate yourselves from many other investors, I suggest researching exactly how the sectors are performing now and historically -- I look at the generally accepted 10. You can get these at Vanguard or Fidelity where you can also access YTD performance and compare (historically) to one year and so on.

    If you would like to think that you would then be able to accurately project probable strong sectors for the remainder of 2015, place your bets. The author, in last weeks ahead thing, suggested looking at beaten down sectors as possible sectors to rotate into. After energy (VDE down 8.64% over 1 year), all others were up from 4.77% (VOX -- Telecom) to 33.60% (VNQ - REITs). Currently REITs continue ahead, albeit with nose bleeds, along with Telecom, again. Take your shots! There are no secrets -- only guesses. So what sectors, you may (wisely) ask, should perform better than the broad market during this business phase? Read on.

    What does all of this tell the average retail investor -- the guy who religiously reads the week ahead prophesy? Without reading Kirk's weekly chart on Sunday, if you can stay awake, the obvious market consensus is that any sign of a first interest rate increase will sink all sectors. Hurrah! The commonality of this thought makes it irrational. Doesn't it? I mean what fun is this game if one can't plan some strategy based on contrarian thinking?

    Cynicism aside, many with thinking caps on will drown you with their perception of market methodism bringing your attention to sites where you will be introduced to impressive views ether way on this or that. By the way, this or that is an actual trading strategy in a bull market.

    Now as to what sectors now, this is what this non pundit has gotten from all the mishmash that's available -- just remember that it's a sort-out game (within a game -- the master game). And then you still may not be ok! Lack of clear leadership is what smacks me in the face -- currently. Is it too early to draw any possible conclusion? To answer that I would strongly suggest that investors keep sector bets to a minimum while employing other approaches to generate additional opportunities. Those last few words were taken from Fidelity's site. I'm still trying to figure out what those opportunities may be. The idea, as expressed by fidelity, is to adjust one's exposure to sectors that have "prominent performance patterns in the next phase of the business cycle." Remember, we are in the middle phase of the current business cycle. All you have to do is know when we are about to enter the late phase -- slam dunk! Current wisdom anticipates that money saved at the pump will lengthen the mid phase play-out. Funny thing, but there are secret thoughts about what may shorten this phase -- damned be energy prices. By the way, if you are interested, Fidelity updates its leadership series each week to give its version of what you could expect in the very near future -- its version of the week ahead thing.

    Good investing to all of you in what remains of 2015. Just remember, where others rush in, the cautious tread softly. It's just a game! Isn't it?
    Feb 8, 2015. 01:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Water Utilities: American Water Works, Aqua America Are The Best Fundamental Selections [View article]
    Authors of these income producing stocks, typically, REITS and utilities, are dismissing how ruinous higher interest rates will be to these investments. I've been noticing REITs getting hammered over the last week. This is merely the result of Fed speak. What happens once the rate increases actually begin. People quickly dumping these stocks in favor of far more secure CDs or just cash will fit the day. It's a mind set (selling into a sell off) that many readers on seeking alpha have no idea that they have. Is capital preservation more important to you than making income or capital gains? Being able to honestly answer that question may be paramount to your future financial security.

    The argument being made by some of the dividend gurus, one of whom I have the deepest respect for, is that we are in this for the income -- not the stock fluctuations. Those of you who can buy into these now have my blessing. It may very well mean watching your capital take a 35 - 50% taking a sudden dive -- sooner than you can imagine. Yes, most likely your income stream will continue, but there are no guarantees. Just remember that you may never get your capital built up again to your basis. Can you live with that? Many investors have been entering this stock market with arms loaded with cash. They can no longer stand to watch others making a killing on dividend stocks, the cheap ETFs and index funds and wildly successful smaller stocks in the healthcare sector.

    Have I thought this same line before over the last three years? Yes! I sold some stuff I wished I hadn't. Am I about to be wrong again? I haven't a clue. BUT, I have enough years of investing behind me that I can tell you that this stock market has been feeding off of my kind of thinking for a very long time. It loves it! With that said, is this twist about to be played out? I don't know for sure, but I surely believe that those taking chips off the table and establishing a cash cushion (dry powder) will be rewarded with deeply discounted stock prices in every market sector once the red tag sale begins.

    Still, I want to be in the game -- just not drenched in sweat playing it. One portfolio of mine fits my risk tolerance to a tee. That is the old fashioned D.R.I.P. strategy. Buying blue chip dividend payers within the confines of a transfer agent makes it possible to have additional shares (or fractions thereof) added each quarter -- for pennies. Your initial investment may be as low as $50. Yes, there are costs, but if you do the numbers comparing these costs to your discount broker you will understand. By far, the neatest thing about a DRIP is that the shares are in your name held by a specific transfer agent that handles all the dividends and additional share purchasing.

    You may think that a DRIP strategy must have the same potential, psychological draw back that any brokerage account would have. It does not (for me). My strategy has ALWAYS been to add new money piecemeal to this account -- at very little cost. Will I add to this account during 2015? Yes, but in a more meager fashion at the higher prices of shares. This allows me to sleep far better at night.

    Far more difficult to manage, is turning my brokerage account into mostly an income producing account. Using 5 broad market ETFs representing a universe of stocks, make up the current core of this portfolio. Some may argue that no bond funds are currently employed. Yes, and for arguably good reasons. With this in mind, the strategy that I employ relates most accurately to tactical asset allocation. This means that I am free to occasionally participate in economic conditions more favorable for one asset class than for others -- like being OUT of bonds. Additionally, I may add one or two sector ETFs that look favorable going forward for the investment year. Market timing is at work here thereby introducing the associated risks. As such, no more than 2 1/2% to 5% is allocated to these. Hopefully, if things pan out these will add a little additional lift to the portfolio. Some additional cash is available to possibly go long with a few stocks holding great promise in the current market cycle -- preferably stocks beaten down by overall sector sell-offs. Balancing the various positions back to target percentages can be accomplished quarterly or following especially fast changing market or economic conditions.

    Caution flags fly regarding how one should first begin employing this strategy using the services of his discount broker. I'll repeat the importance of ONLY buying the dips to open your positions -- piecemeal. There will be many opportunities with increasing volatility.

    None of what I have suggested here is meant to be taken as investment advice. It merely exhibits an example of what perhaps can be used. Just because I use much of this as my personal strategy should not be taken as something that will work for you. As such, it remains highly important that you do your own due diligence and final methodology to match your risk tolerance and investment time frame and expectations to any such investment scheme.

    Remember, where others rush in, the cautious tread softly.
    Feb 7, 2015. 11:55 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Water Utilities: American Water Works, Aqua America Are The Best Fundamental Selections [View article]
    If these don't rate, which do you suppose do?
    Feb 7, 2015. 10:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Predictable Fast Growing Healthcare Dividend Growth And Growth Stocks For Your Retirement Portfolios: Part 5 [View article]
    The healthcare sector has been a winner for some decades now. It's the no brainer sector. However, this stock market has smoke coming out of its nostrils. Once the exit doors open there will be no survivors. Getting exposure to ANY of the companies mentioned here should mean taking extreme caution by nibbling on down days -- if at all. The good news is that since I am saying this, I have lots of company. If you believe that, expect increased complacency in a high cost stock market -- the indexes move higher most of this year. Feel dizzy yet?
    Feb 6, 2015. 09:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Middle Class Has Disappeared Into Higher-Income Groups; Recent Stagnation Explained By Changing Household Demographics? [View article]
    Obviously, this article voices that the middle-class is getting classier. The middle-class has three components, the upper middle-class, the middle-class, and the upper middle-class. There is a struggle going on for the lower and middle to stay afloat. The upper is doing quite well from inheritance money, having worked the better (now diminished) blue collar jobs and professional careers. The upper will most likely never struggle -- investments, appreciating bigger homes, cottages, boats and so on. It's the middle and lower middle who have lost union backing in the few remaining manufacturing jobs. These people are also the most neglected by this government. These are the people who are getting poorer -- and fast. These are the people who far outweigh the richer ones in the upper-middle. Dropping off the financial cliff is leaving the diminishing middle-class with FEWER people able to make a go of it. Few have any means to advance. Those uppers who may move onto the upper class are and will continue to be far less than those skidding into the poor -- the subsidized class. Count on it!
    Feb 5, 2015. 11:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The 1 Key Factor Moving The Market [View article]
    Any idea that smart money is selling out of over bought sectors and redeploying cash into the energy sector is pure speculation. Perhaps the smart money is selling into weakness and holding cash. It goes on. Be sure, I see the word "Greece" written seven times in this article. Many investors, including this one, don't give a hoot about Greece. Should it be dismissed? Of course not. Just be sure that GDP for this tiny place is approximately that of Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex. It's not Greece that matters as much as its other European neighbors, alas should other pins tumble. Greece is the proverbial canary in the coal mine. What worries me more than any of this is that this market cares this much. Something much bigger than the aged Greece tale lurks. Look out for it. You won't find it in any of the over worked ideas appearing in most any financial article lately.
    Feb 4, 2015. 10:16 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil pushes back through $50 [View news story]
    Oil glut speak and now no oil glut speak. Which is it? Seems no one knows. The prudent investor does not make large bets with kind of news.
    Feb 3, 2015. 09:25 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will The Data Landslide Reveal Economic Weakness? [View article]
    Most are investors on here having more class than suggesting politics. S.A does not condone your political thoughts.
    Feb 2, 2015. 09:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • HCP Has Now Earned A Prominent Position In My Retirement Portfolio [View article]
    Draghi and rates remaining low are echoes in my ears. There will be others -- all soon enough.
    Jan 31, 2015. 12:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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