Perry1961

Peak Oil: A Reality or a Lie?

Higher oil prices will just make EV's and PHEV's more attractive. Ditto for biofuels. Transportation will be largely electric a decade from now. And,deep geothermal will provide most electricity in two decades. Oil companies will continue to dominate in energy, even when oil is no longer needed. They're best able to compete with deep geothermal. Chevron is the largest geothermal operator in the world.

As the Dollar Continues to Collapse, Where Will You Put Your Money?

Even Forest Gump would raise rates if inflation became a threat. With oil up 75% ytd,the dollar losing ground,and the economy showing a slight pulse,the Fed is probably thinking higher rates six months from now. Europe may never grow again. Ditto Japan. Their populations are declining,and they don't have the natural resources America is blessed with. Throw in a lower dollar,and perpetual economic malaise is assured.

As the Dollar Continues to Collapse, Where Will You Put Your Money?

I would liken the stimulus spending to a light drizzle after two years of drought. World equity markets dropped 40 or 50 trillion in '07 and '08. Hard assets like housing and real estate lost another 40 or 50 trillion. Quick,decisive action by central banks and world leaders may have averted a depression. We don't know yet. A "declining rate of decline" in economic activity is where we currently stand. As world GDP continues to decline,demand for commodities will continue to shrink.

I'm bullish on the dollar going forward. Of the G7 countries,the US looks to be the first to recover. We can't pull other countries out of their economic malaise without a strong dollar. Central banks will take concerted action if neccessary. Also,the Fed will be draining liquidity and raising rates long before Europe and Japan can afford to do the same.

The Insidious Secondary Effects of TARP Funding

BAC shareholders should sue the Fed and Treasury, just to see what the Supreme Court would have to say. It might take decades to get a ruling....but still.

Bernanke's 'Transparency' Efforts: Actions Speak Louder than Words

How would you like to be in Lewis's shoes? Mke the disclosure, and everyone loses their job. Don't make it, and shareholders want your head on a pike. I think he made the right decision. The financial system was teetering on the edge. Lehman's failure caused bankers to freeze like deer in the headlights, because nobody knew who was stuck with what. Merrill's collapse would have been disastrous.

Betting on the Big Banks

B of A and Merrill had a combined market cap north of $500B before the recession. Is there any reason BAC can't surpass that once the recession ends? Fed funds have never been this low. With 10% of the country's bank deposits,and Americans saving more than they have in decades,BAC is going to make a fortune next year. When loan loss provisions go into reverse,BAC will head to $80+.

Massive Bank Shareholder Dilution Ahead

What if the banks don't want or need more funds? Many of the top 20 didn't want or need TARP. Regions reluctantly took 3.5B in TARP funds,and now has 5B more than a "well capitalized" bank needs. It wants to repay TARP ASAP. Goldman Sachs would like to do the same.

Oil Thesis Buying 101 - Even 'Experts' Mock It

Speculation has nothing to do with the spot price of crude. Futures maybe,but not the spot price. That's for the physical buyers. People taking actual delivery. People who buy ETF's and those who "trade" oil contracts can't influence the spot price. When the contract comes due,all they can do is hope refiners are in a buying mood.

Oil Is Years Away from a Meaningful Recovery

If OPEC doesn't raise quotas,we're back at record oil prices by Christmas. Who has all that spare capacity? Oh yeah....OPEC. And how much spare capacity does the world have when Ghawar is depleted? Nada.

Ghawar is going down the tubes quickly. Not as quickly as Cantarell,but going nonetheless.

Natural Gas: a Supply Shock in the Making

I'm expecting a summer rally in NG. Demand will drop for seasonal reasons,but production will drop a lot faster. NG wells have initial depletion rates of 50%. As much as 70% in shale areas. Cut drilling,and production declines are almost immediate.

When Will the Oil Price Pop?

We could have protracted stagflation until oil prices reach a level that allows renewable energy to be competitive. Wish someone knew what level that would be.

A Portfolio Update: Replacing Gold with Energy

Very concise and well thought out. You seem very level headed for such a young guy. I see you're still holding GE. It's a crying shame what's been done to that stock,and many others. I don't understand money chasing Treasuries when so many fine stocks have dividend yields 3X higher. When the shine comes off of gold,treasuries,AND the USD,stocks will bounce higher. Right now,money is scared,and it's being parked anywhere BUT the stock market.

USO: Black Gold Waiting to Erupt

I've been bearish on oil and oil ETF's until now. But,a host of indicators say the recession is over. The LEI was up .4% last month,it's second consecutive gain. Jan. retail sales were up. The PPI was up .4%,for it's first positive number in 6 months. Existing home sales are up sharply. To top it off,gasoline and distillate fuel consumption grew y/y in the latest energy report. The crude oil inventory draw was a complete shock. OPEC is still cutting production. Another 800,000 bpd will be shaved in the next two weeks. All these factors in combination are extremely bullish for oil. The snapback will be sharp. Figure in trillions in stimulus plans by governments around the world,and the stage is set for $200 oil in the next 2 years.

Nordic American Tanker: Excellent Long Play for the Income Investor

Before watching NAT's CEO in the CNBC interview,I had assumed the oil tanker market was suffering along with the rest of the shipping industry. But,demand for oil is only down 1% or so. The CEO was funny when he talked about Chavez shipping his oil to China,and then NAT picks up a shipment elsewhere and heads back to the US. I wish I'd have known about the stock earlier. With markets trading sideways for who knows how long,a 10% dividend is a gift.

Holding Rationale for the Dow

Shorting near market bottoms is nuttier than buying at speculative peaks imo.