Perry1961

Holding Rationale for the Dow

Shorting near market bottoms is nuttier than buying at speculative peaks imo.

Are We Already in a Depression?

Wouldn't touch a banking stock,but I love XLF. Love energy stocks. Throw a dart and you'll pick a winner. Shipping stocks were up 25% this week. Mining stocks did very well. Metals are firming and Baltic Dry Index is roaring. Techs were a good place to be as well. Pretty much all the sectors that normally take the lead coming out of a bear market are hot right now.

Why I'm Bullish on Oil

Can economies around the world recover with 30 or $40 oil? I don't think so. Previous recessions required $20 oil to pull out of the slump. It looks like OPEC will do its best to prolong this. Idiots.

Welcome to a New World of Investing

Forget the marginal cost of production for now. World demand fell much quicker and harder than anyone imagined possible. The US imported 19% less oil,by volume, in Nov. Japan imported 17% less oil. Everyone is focused on the 6% y/y decline in gasoline demand in the US. Nobody will give us the monthly decline from oct. to nov. Besides,gasoline is only one product made from oil. There are so many others. The 6M barrel build in heating oil stocks in the middle of winter should absolutely unglue any oil long. I've looked into these supposed quota cuts OPEC is touting. Big joke. For instance,Nigeria's quota was cut by 500,000 bpd. Nigeria was producing so much less than its quota,that it can boost production and still be in compliance. Nigeria actually did increase production in Dec. Not something that would happen if they were in the process of cutting prodution. Yes,the Saudi's are under quota,for the same reason Iran has had 15 supertankers full of sour crude anchored since April. Nobody wants the nastiest grades,and there's nowhere left to put it.

OPEC coulda,woulda,shoulda cut production 10% several months ago. The 5% planned cuts are actually more like 2% and won't do diddly squat for prices. We'll see $15 oil very soon. $10 oil wouldn't surprise me. What would surprise me is a move back over $20 in the next 3 years.