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  • Silver Sell Off Hitting Historic Levels [View article]
    I think this is close to the truth though I think that, because of the increasing speed of systemic volatility and the obvious move PMs will make in the long-term as ready to blowup sky high, low 30's will see
    the floor as commercial and institutional buyers will now have their buy-in dip. If these large retail funds move even 1%+ in PM holdings, the whole niche will explode...UT is the first, and just added another 500 million in physical gold.
    May 5, 2011. 01:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Sell Off Hitting Historic Levels [View article]
    They are not buying silver.
    They are buying options on someone else's silver in a vault.

    There is a huge difference in these two assets as they seek true price discovery. Paper silver is just what is, just as a silver coin in your hand is just what it is.
    May 5, 2011. 01:26 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver: Why I'm Still Short [View article]
    low 30's early next week will be the created "buy-in" for commercial and institutional buyers. Weak hands are shook, paper vs physical arbitrage appears to be now a factor...

    That 747 you speak of is actually doing a flyby at 300mph
    BUT it is fuel by paper currency printing and sovereign debt structures.
    Missing the big picture that is there allows one to paint any backdrop they want.
    May 5, 2011. 01:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver is plunging in early trading Sunday evening, -12.1% at $42.73. No particular news, but there is (make that was) a lot of air underneath the price. Ed Bradford at Full Carry notes the metal was trading 88% above its 200 day moving average. Gold is spared any damage thus far.  [View news story]
    I think it is easy to forget that the true influence of these monetary policies has a substantial delay before it hits everything systemically,
    12-18 months typically if I remember correctly.
    With that said there is A LOT of very, very fresh currency sitting on the sidelines.
    May 2, 2011. 02:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver is plunging in early trading Sunday evening, -12.1% at $42.73. No particular news, but there is (make that was) a lot of air underneath the price. Ed Bradford at Full Carry notes the metal was trading 88% above its 200 day moving average. Gold is spared any damage thus far.  [View news story]
    Every opinion has its lens, focus and filters.
    Some are more subjective than others, but it is important to mention dirty lenses in critique.

    BTD (or whats left after the Asian markets get a hold of it)
    May 1, 2011. 07:49 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Fever Is About to Break [View article]
    You, my friend, are preaching to the choir.

    May 1, 2011. 07:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Fever Is About to Break [View article]
    Silver just got zapped to 43 and gold went parabolic.
    It would seem that the shorts either take one or the other in sights.
    Big question now is how fast the dip will be bought.
    May 1, 2011. 07:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Fever Is About to Break [View article]
    International M2 charts vs PM valuation shows, ultimately, just
    how much further the potentials get.

    Also, I encourage anyone interested in PMs to widen their
    analysis to include global historical psychology behind PMs, gold and silver specifically. A first stop might be thinking about the effect of steeply rising food and gas prices against both the declining value of the dollar and wage stagnation (not to mention rising unemployment) as we have only just begun to see the societal affect of serious inflation here in the US.

    Or think about the implications of gold coins from Rome or Ben Franklin's solid silver sword behind glass in museums. It seems there is something deeper at work, psychologically, than just dip/rise speculation in regards to gold and silver.

    Here's a few left field thoughts:
    -Mathematics, in its mind boggling entirety, is a human conception.
    Metal is an object that exists.

    -Does silver or gold change its value against other assets or currencies or is it really the other way around?

    -What, if any, is the correlation of global market volatility/instability to the value (note: not price) of PMs? How about trust as a vector in global markets?
    May 1, 2011. 02:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Is in Blow-off Phase - Top Could Be Near [View article]
    1) With Switzerland .25% rate and similar QE policies, some see Switzerland as the new Japan on a long road downward.
    Loose central bank monetary policies, in any currency, will reflect
    similarly against gold and silver. I see it as PM vs Currency and further, I believe the terms of one currency vs another, in regards to understanding valuation, places us in an illusory frame of reference at this historical moment for many of the reasons I have already outlined.
    As an investor in life, I think it is important to take stock of true fundamentals.
    Here's a novel investing strategy that I preach: think about owning animals as opposed to buying ag stocks. Invest in local wind and solar companies near you instead of speculating in the bloodiest of assets, oil. Collect silver and gold antiques, old silver trombones and trumpets and ancient coins as a value of, not only the intrinsic metal, but the added bonus of cultural value.
    If more of us added morality as a vector to smart and wise investing, the wealth will build itself. As well as nurturing the community around it, and be responsible (in the deepest sense of the word) for one's actions on this planet.

    2) With TWO margin hikes in one week not even taking out 45,
    the MA point to up and away. Even if there was a coordinated shorts and margin hikes globally, I think it would be a huge BTD moment...the longs are bigger in the futures options.
    Also, assessing the psychological aspect of economic participants: the global populations (silver being a much cheaper buy in than gold) are livid and reproachful coupled with economics as the tie that binds: we have only just seen the beginning of massive economic, social and political changes. If things keep steering the way they are presently headed, the end of a currency super-cycle will be an amazing thing to witness.

    3) Great reminder of the need for perspective and discipline.

    May 1, 2011. 01:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Is in Blow-off Phase - Top Could Be Near [View article]
    ...and I am pushed to properly and logically explain my thinking.
    It helps me to clarify my points sometimes by verbalizing them,
    thanks to you as well for the debate.

    May 1, 2011. 10:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Is in Blow-off Phase - Top Could Be Near [View article]
    Here's a headline just this morning that could be construed as bullish for PM's:

    "The latest projections from the Japanese Finance Ministry regarding the fiscal year which started on April 1 make for sobering reading. They say that Japan’s “public” (funded) debt will probably rise by 5.8 percent this year - to 997.7 TRILLION Yen ($US 12.2 TRILLION at current exchange rates). Should these projections be even slightly on the optimistic side - and government financial projections always are - then Japan could easily be looking at a public debt of 1,000 TRILLION Yen by March 31, 2012.

    There is another way of expressing 1,000 TRILLION.
    It is the same as ONE QUADRILLION."

    The collective economic human mind has breached yet another psychological barrier it would seem. Sovereign debt structures have just jumped by a magnitude.
    May 1, 2011. 09:59 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Is in Blow-off Phase - Top Could Be Near [View article]
    Hi PEhrlich:
    In RE to 1) Firstly, I totally agree with you that there are many vectors as to what is pushing on PM's. Some of which we just won't be able to gleen.
    But I'll ask you this:
    why are you trying to put Ag in specific hundred year trending cycle when the historical is in thousands?
    We are in a time unlike any before us where public debt structures, political authority and personal rights are being used as means of population control using technological systems that are very efficient in keeping people in the box and this is all happening with the backdrop of peak energy and the intrinsic driving motivation of all business for MORE profits.
    The rapid development of technology (see Moore's law for the curve), compounded with the exponential rate of consumption (especially of US dollars), that is almost legally mandated here in the US, has set the stage for cultural deleveraging: what we knew as the United States of America, has been and is steadily being changed, some might even say that it has already been corrupted.
    Has this level of corruption, coupled with a teetering globally connected economy, coupled with massive unemployment worldwide (and remember these people are not finding jobs like they had ever again: between outsourcing and the fact that their skills in manufacturing and farming are being replaced as fast as possible by technology), and dwindling resources of cheap non-renewable energy, come to a point where it is politically used to steer debate and policy into lies, obfuscations and personal profit driven agendas?

    Is there cause for concern that (inadvertently or with lobbied intent) our government, and the collective global governance does not value the health, rights or life of most of the population of earth?

    Is the lifestyle of 21st century finance (as now, over 40% of the US GDP) and consumer capitalism going to help us all or hurt us more, collectively as a species living on the closed system of earth?

    Seeing the world as an interconnected system, where the pricing is reflected by a myriad of vectors not limited to technical analysis, will provide a proper context for understanding the human psychology behind any price fluctuation.

    These thoughts don't even touch into the fundamental technicalities of Silvers continuing rise...which are stunning to say the least.

    RE 2) As I had posted before about the historical, cultural and psychological basis of gold and silver as historical and current monetary units: tin was and is a utilitarian metal.
    Black's Law Dictionary: Money
    " In usual and ordinary acceptation it means gold, silver, or paper money used as circulating medium of exchange, and does not embrace notes, bonds, evidence of debt, or other personal or real estate. Lane v. Railey, 280 Ky.319,133 S.W. 2d 74, 79, 81."

    In its strict technical sense "money" means coined metal, usually gold or silver, upon which the government stamp has been impressed to indicate its value. In its more popular sense, "money" means any currency, tokens, bank-notes, or other circulation medium in general use as the representative of value. Then under that several more sites are named.

    Silver has the six aspects of money in a classical sense. It is divisible, durable, convenient, consistent, has utility value, and cannot be created by fiat. Silver is used as a medium of exchange and as a store of value."

    RE Tin: I am WRONG:

    Also, I forgot that much coinage has a percentage of tin in the alloy. But, psychologically, could tin stand next to gold or silver by itself?
    If we look back throughout history at the totems and tokens of statehood, royalty, ruling castes it is obvious that silver is present but tin, aside from utilitarian uses, does not hold as much intrinsic value in the eyes of humankind.

    May 1, 2011. 09:25 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Is in Blow-off Phase - Top Could Be Near [View article]
    There is a difference: gold (and silver) is 'money', tin isn't.
    In fact, there is enough information about gold and silver throughout history to have a valuation ratio between the two metals that spans millennia.
    Tin, as far as I know, has never been used as money.
    Apr 30, 2011. 09:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Is in Blow-off Phase - Top Could Be Near [View article]
    The psychological argument I see against Buffet's sentiment is such:
    Gold has held interest, attention and value throughout of most of human history. Economic markets, in their current state, have not even surpassed a few hundred years of existence without multiple critical systemic breakdowns.
    4000+ years of societal acceptance, believe and trust in the innate value of Gold and Silver, especially in this time of systemic corruption and fraud (complex products for the sake only of complexity), PMs are uncorruptable as what they are: precious metal loved and valued for thousands of years...that's not to say that there isn't manipulation of other assets priced against them of course, and that is another critical factor in the exponential rise of there pricing. Because it is not that PM are really rising in price, it is that everything else is being utterly debased. PM's are the touchstone they have always been.
    Empires of Egypt thousands of years ago would take gold and mold it into the shape of deities and worn by Pharaohs. The Roman empire, emblazoned the image of Caesars in the coinage of precious metals. These coins, relics and objects that now populate our museums the world over help make up are our collective cultural identity the world over.
    One can not 'spin' away the inherent value of the gold sarcophagus of Tutankhamen. It, and subsequently the parts of said whole, is priceless for human identity and cultural understanding.
    In context of time frames of hundreds/Thousands of years, it is just a matter of pulling back to factor in super cycles as opposed to the more micro-focus view of even the last 100 years in context.
    Micro movements happen in macro systems and, if thousands of years of human history tell us anything, Gold and Silver will still have value long after all our bones have turned to dust.
    Can that be said of currency, bonds or stocks?
    Whats older: the oldest circulated paper currency or silver?
    Are ETF's and paper PM positions the same as holding physical?
    If not why and how might this affect pricing going forward?

    I have my own (obviously) conclusions, but I enjoy posting
    the thinking behind the decision in good debate form.
    Apr 30, 2011. 01:05 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Is in Blow-off Phase - Top Could Be Near [View article]
    they can raise their rates as high as they want, the currency genie is already out of the bottle...
    Apr 30, 2011. 10:17 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment