Silver Is in Blow-off Phase - Top Could Be Near [View article]
No mention of the PM fervor in Asian markets? They have a lot of wealth stored and there is a def trending (both on the street and at the central planning level) of large purchases of all PMs, especially through Russia, India and China. Also, trends like the Gold delivering ATM's in the middle east are just the tip of the iceberg in having a clear indication of global currency vs money sentiments of economic psychology. Not to mention that TWO margin hike dips were gobbled up in under a day each with the trough compression, on the spot price of Ag this week, showing a stabilizing price of 48 after the hikes and the now regularly featured short attcks. 50 is the psychological barrier for the parabolic moves many feel will happen. One or two more 'black swan' events to the cluster-flock currently squawking around the globe and I think our collective human species suspension-of-belief will be powerful enough in current global reality to, not only take out 50, but then send it surging on an upwards exhale decades in the making. The currency argument is baked into the silver cake on a macro level. To add to that: there is an argument against comparing this rise of PM's to the technicalities of other PM price rises is that the underlying geo-political/economic situations are much more tenuous and dire than ever before. International M2 charts show a serious concern for almost all currency valuations. One merely has to look at DXY vs the the St Louis Feds USD monetary supply charts to see we have a much larger correction coming down the pike on many fronts. There is very serious cause for concern from a number of vectors, the biggest which I see is the: only now, creeping menace of inflation on the US economy. By this summer, with food and gas prices skyrocketing, PM's will start to unfold their power and traditional use as an inflationary hedge. That is when triple digit Ag prices could happen I think.
We all must remember, when tipping points hit in unsustainable systems, the rippling domino effect can be stunning in its totality and virtually instantaneous in its momentum.
Silver Sell Off Hitting Historic Levels [View article]
They are not buying silver. They are buying options on someone else's silver in a vault.
There is a huge difference in these two assets as they seek true price discovery. Paper silver is just what is, just as a silver coin in your hand is just what it is.
Silver Is in Blow-off Phase - Top Could Be Near [View article]
The psychological argument I see against Buffet's sentiment is such: Gold has held interest, attention and value throughout of most of human history. Economic markets, in their current state, have not even surpassed a few hundred years of existence without multiple critical systemic breakdowns. 4000+ years of societal acceptance, believe and trust in the innate value of Gold and Silver, especially in this time of systemic corruption and fraud (complex products for the sake only of complexity), PMs are uncorruptable as what they are: precious metal loved and valued for thousands of years...that's not to say that there isn't manipulation of other assets priced against them of course, and that is another critical factor in the exponential rise of there pricing. Because it is not that PM are really rising in price, it is that everything else is being utterly debased. PM's are the touchstone they have always been. Empires of Egypt thousands of years ago would take gold and mold it into the shape of deities and worn by Pharaohs. The Roman empire, emblazoned the image of Caesars in the coinage of precious metals. These coins, relics and objects that now populate our museums the world over help make up are our collective cultural identity the world over. One can not 'spin' away the inherent value of the gold sarcophagus of Tutankhamen. It, and subsequently the parts of said whole, is priceless for human identity and cultural understanding. In context of time frames of hundreds/Thousands of years, it is just a matter of pulling back to factor in super cycles as opposed to the more micro-focus view of even the last 100 years in context. Micro movements happen in macro systems and, if thousands of years of human history tell us anything, Gold and Silver will still have value long after all our bones have turned to dust. Can that be said of currency, bonds or stocks? Whats older: the oldest circulated paper currency or silver? Are ETF's and paper PM positions the same as holding physical? If not why and how might this affect pricing going forward?
I have my own (obviously) conclusions, but I enjoy posting the thinking behind the decision in good debate form.
Bernanke refuses to do more to help the unemployed, Paul Krugman believes, because he's "bullied by the inflationistas: the people who keep seeing runaway inflation just around the corner and are undeterred by the fact that they keep on being wrong... because Ron Paul is now the chairman of the House subcommittee on monetary policy." (earlier) [View news story]
Krugman's off his meds fo sho Get that guy off the soapbox before he hurts and kills more people
Silver is plunging in early trading Sunday evening, -12.1% at $42.73. No particular news, but there is (make that was) a lot of air underneath the price. Ed Bradford at Full Carry notes the metal was trading 88% above its 200 day moving average. Gold is spared any damage thus far. [View news story]
Every opinion has its lens, focus and filters. Some are more subjective than others, but it is important to mention dirty lenses in critique.
BTD (or whats left after the Asian markets get a hold of it)
Silver Is in Blow-off Phase - Top Could Be Near [View article]
Hi PEhrlich: In RE to 1) Firstly, I totally agree with you that there are many vectors as to what is pushing on PM's. Some of which we just won't be able to gleen. But I'll ask you this: why are you trying to put Ag in specific hundred year trending cycle when the historical is in thousands? We are in a time unlike any before us where public debt structures, political authority and personal rights are being used as means of population control using technological systems that are very efficient in keeping people in the box and this is all happening with the backdrop of peak energy and the intrinsic driving motivation of all business for MORE profits. The rapid development of technology (see Moore's law for the curve), compounded with the exponential rate of consumption (especially of US dollars), that is almost legally mandated here in the US, has set the stage for cultural deleveraging: what we knew as the United States of America, has been and is steadily being changed, some might even say that it has already been corrupted. Has this level of corruption, coupled with a teetering globally connected economy, coupled with massive unemployment worldwide (and remember these people are not finding jobs like they had ever again: between outsourcing and the fact that their skills in manufacturing and farming are being replaced as fast as possible by technology), and dwindling resources of cheap non-renewable energy, come to a point where it is politically used to steer debate and policy into lies, obfuscations and personal profit driven agendas?
Is there cause for concern that (inadvertently or with lobbied intent) our government, and the collective global governance does not value the health, rights or life of most of the population of earth?
Is the lifestyle of 21st century finance (as now, over 40% of the US GDP) and consumer capitalism going to help us all or hurt us more, collectively as a species living on the closed system of earth?
Seeing the world as an interconnected system, where the pricing is reflected by a myriad of vectors not limited to technical analysis, will provide a proper context for understanding the human psychology behind any price fluctuation.
These thoughts don't even touch into the fundamental technicalities of Silvers continuing rise...which are stunning to say the least.
RE 2) As I had posted before about the historical, cultural and psychological basis of gold and silver as historical and current monetary units: tin was and is a utilitarian metal. Black's Law Dictionary: Money " In usual and ordinary acceptation it means gold, silver, or paper money used as circulating medium of exchange, and does not embrace notes, bonds, evidence of debt, or other personal or real estate. Lane v. Railey, 280 Ky.319,133 S.W. 2d 74, 79, 81."
In its strict technical sense "money" means coined metal, usually gold or silver, upon which the government stamp has been impressed to indicate its value. In its more popular sense, "money" means any currency, tokens, bank-notes, or other circulation medium in general use as the representative of value. Then under that several more sites are named.
Silver has the six aspects of money in a classical sense. It is divisible, durable, convenient, consistent, has utility value, and cannot be created by fiat. Silver is used as a medium of exchange and as a store of value."
Also, I forgot that much coinage has a percentage of tin in the alloy. But, psychologically, could tin stand next to gold or silver by itself? If we look back throughout history at the totems and tokens of statehood, royalty, ruling castes it is obvious that silver is present but tin, aside from utilitarian uses, does not hold as much intrinsic value in the eyes of humankind.
Silver Sell Off Hitting Historic Levels [View article]
I think this is close to the truth though I think that, because of the increasing speed of systemic volatility and the obvious move PMs will make in the long-term as ready to blowup sky high, low 30's will see the floor as commercial and institutional buyers will now have their buy-in dip. If these large retail funds move even 1%+ in PM holdings, the whole niche will explode...UT is the first, and just added another 500 million in physical gold.
low 30's early next week will be the created "buy-in" for commercial and institutional buyers. Weak hands are shook, paper vs physical arbitrage appears to be now a factor...
That 747 you speak of is actually doing a flyby at 300mph BUT it is fuel by paper currency printing and sovereign debt structures. Missing the big picture that is there allows one to paint any backdrop they want.
Silver Is in Blow-off Phase - Top Could Be Near [View article]
Here's a headline just this morning that could be construed as bullish for PM's:
"The latest projections from the Japanese Finance Ministry regarding the fiscal year which started on April 1 make for sobering reading. They say that Japan’s “public” (funded) debt will probably rise by 5.8 percent this year - to 997.7 TRILLION Yen ($US 12.2 TRILLION at current exchange rates). Should these projections be even slightly on the optimistic side - and government financial projections always are - then Japan could easily be looking at a public debt of 1,000 TRILLION Yen by March 31, 2012.
There is another way of expressing 1,000 TRILLION. It is the same as ONE QUADRILLION."
The collective economic human mind has breached yet another psychological barrier it would seem. Sovereign debt structures have just jumped by a magnitude.
Silver Is in Blow-off Phase - Top Could Be Near [View article]
There is a difference: gold (and silver) is 'money', tin isn't. In fact, there is enough information about gold and silver throughout history to have a valuation ratio between the two metals that spans millennia. Tin, as far as I know, has never been used as money.
Feb. Nonfarm Payrolls:+192K vs. consensus +185K, +63K prior (revised). Unemployment 8.9% vs 9.1% expected, 9% prior. Avg. hourly earnings +$0.01. to $22.87. [View news story]
From Econdoc: "Evidently that little scenario is being repeated over and over around the US - thanks to the Fed policies - over time all those people will be put back t work. "
'Soylent Green is PEOPLE!'
From Angel Martin: "and the trend for the market will be up..."
...until the easing stops. Do some real research on correlations between markets and QE policy. Its very illuminating.
RE: Official Gov Unemployment numbers? bwahahaha...ha... Funny and distressing at the same time.
Silver is plunging in early trading Sunday evening, -12.1% at $42.73. No particular news, but there is (make that was) a lot of air underneath the price. Ed Bradford at Full Carry notes the metal was trading 88% above its 200 day moving average. Gold is spared any damage thus far. [View news story]
I think it is easy to forget that the true influence of these monetary policies has a substantial delay before it hits everything systemically, 12-18 months typically if I remember correctly. With that said there is A LOT of very, very fresh currency sitting on the sidelines.
Silver just got zapped to 43 and gold went parabolic. It would seem that the shorts either take one or the other in sights. Big question now is how fast the dip will be bought.
Silver Is in Blow-off Phase - Top Could Be Near [View article]
They have a lot of wealth stored and there is a def trending (both on the street and at the central planning level) of large purchases of all PMs, especially through Russia, India and China.
Also, trends like the Gold delivering ATM's in the middle east are just the tip of the iceberg in having a clear indication of global currency vs money sentiments of economic psychology.
Not to mention that TWO margin hike dips were gobbled up in under a day each with the trough compression, on the spot price of Ag this week, showing a stabilizing price of 48 after the hikes and the now regularly featured short attcks.
50 is the psychological barrier for the parabolic moves many feel will happen. One or two more 'black swan' events to the cluster-flock currently squawking around the globe and I think our collective human species suspension-of-belief will be powerful enough in current global reality to, not only take out 50, but then send it surging on an upwards exhale decades in the making.
The currency argument is baked into the silver cake on a macro level.
To add to that: there is an argument against comparing this rise of PM's to the technicalities of other PM price rises is that the underlying geo-political/economic situations are much more tenuous and dire than ever before. International M2 charts show a serious concern for almost all currency valuations. One merely has to look at DXY vs the the St Louis Feds USD monetary supply charts to see we have a much larger correction coming down the pike on many fronts.
There is very serious cause for concern from a number of vectors,
the biggest which I see is the: only now, creeping menace of inflation on the US economy.
By this summer, with food and gas prices skyrocketing, PM's will start to unfold their
power and traditional use as an inflationary hedge. That is when triple digit Ag prices could happen I think.
We all must remember, when tipping points hit in unsustainable systems, the rippling domino effect can be stunning in its totality and virtually instantaneous in its momentum.
Silver Sell Off Hitting Historic Levels [View article]
They are buying options on someone else's silver in a vault.
There is a huge difference in these two assets as they seek true price discovery. Paper silver is just what is, just as a silver coin in your hand is just what it is.
Silver Is in Blow-off Phase - Top Could Be Near [View article]
Gold has held interest, attention and value throughout of most of human history. Economic markets, in their current state, have not even surpassed a few hundred years of existence without multiple critical systemic breakdowns.
4000+ years of societal acceptance, believe and trust in the innate value of Gold and Silver, especially in this time of systemic corruption and fraud (complex products for the sake only of complexity), PMs are uncorruptable as what they are: precious metal loved and valued for thousands of years...that's not to say that there isn't manipulation of other assets priced against them of course, and that is another critical factor in the exponential rise of there pricing. Because it is not that PM are really rising in price, it is that everything else is being utterly debased. PM's are the touchstone they have always been.
Empires of Egypt thousands of years ago would take gold and mold it into the shape of deities and worn by Pharaohs. The Roman empire, emblazoned the image of Caesars in the coinage of precious metals. These coins, relics and objects that now populate our museums the world over help make up are our collective cultural identity the world over.
One can not 'spin' away the inherent value of the gold sarcophagus of Tutankhamen. It, and subsequently the parts of said whole, is priceless for human identity and cultural understanding.
In context of time frames of hundreds/Thousands of years, it is just a matter of pulling back to factor in super cycles as opposed to the more micro-focus view of even the last 100 years in context.
Micro movements happen in macro systems and, if thousands of years of human history tell us anything, Gold and Silver will still have value long after all our bones have turned to dust.
Can that be said of currency, bonds or stocks?
Whats older: the oldest circulated paper currency or silver?
Are ETF's and paper PM positions the same as holding physical?
If not why and how might this affect pricing going forward?
I have my own (obviously) conclusions, but I enjoy posting
the thinking behind the decision in good debate form.
Silver Is in Blow-off Phase - Top Could Be Near [View article]
Bernanke refuses to do more to help the unemployed, Paul Krugman believes, because he's "bullied by the inflationistas: the people who keep seeing runaway inflation just around the corner and are undeterred by the fact that they keep on being wrong... because Ron Paul is now the chairman of the House subcommittee on monetary policy." (earlier) [View news story]
Get that guy off the soapbox before he hurts and kills more people
Silver is plunging in early trading Sunday evening, -12.1% at $42.73. No particular news, but there is (make that was) a lot of air underneath the price. Ed Bradford at Full Carry notes the metal was trading 88% above its 200 day moving average. Gold is spared any damage thus far. [View news story]
Some are more subjective than others, but it is important to mention dirty lenses in critique.
BTD (or whats left after the Asian markets get a hold of it)
Silver Is in Blow-off Phase - Top Could Be Near [View article]
In RE to 1) Firstly, I totally agree with you that there are many vectors as to what is pushing on PM's. Some of which we just won't be able to gleen.
But I'll ask you this:
why are you trying to put Ag in specific hundred year trending cycle when the historical is in thousands?
We are in a time unlike any before us where public debt structures, political authority and personal rights are being used as means of population control using technological systems that are very efficient in keeping people in the box and this is all happening with the backdrop of peak energy and the intrinsic driving motivation of all business for MORE profits.
The rapid development of technology (see Moore's law for the curve), compounded with the exponential rate of consumption (especially of US dollars), that is almost legally mandated here in the US, has set the stage for cultural deleveraging: what we knew as the United States of America, has been and is steadily being changed, some might even say that it has already been corrupted.
Has this level of corruption, coupled with a teetering globally connected economy, coupled with massive unemployment worldwide (and remember these people are not finding jobs like they had ever again: between outsourcing and the fact that their skills in manufacturing and farming are being replaced as fast as possible by technology), and dwindling resources of cheap non-renewable energy, come to a point where it is politically used to steer debate and policy into lies, obfuscations and personal profit driven agendas?
Is there cause for concern that (inadvertently or with lobbied intent) our government, and the collective global governance does not value the health, rights or life of most of the population of earth?
Is the lifestyle of 21st century finance (as now, over 40% of the US GDP) and consumer capitalism going to help us all or hurt us more, collectively as a species living on the closed system of earth?
Seeing the world as an interconnected system, where the pricing is reflected by a myriad of vectors not limited to technical analysis, will provide a proper context for understanding the human psychology behind any price fluctuation.
These thoughts don't even touch into the fundamental technicalities of Silvers continuing rise...which are stunning to say the least.
RE 2) As I had posted before about the historical, cultural and psychological basis of gold and silver as historical and current monetary units: tin was and is a utilitarian metal.
Black's Law Dictionary: Money
" In usual and ordinary acceptation it means gold, silver, or paper money used as circulating medium of exchange, and does not embrace notes, bonds, evidence of debt, or other personal or real estate. Lane v. Railey, 280 Ky.319,133 S.W. 2d 74, 79, 81."
In its strict technical sense "money" means coined metal, usually gold or silver, upon which the government stamp has been impressed to indicate its value. In its more popular sense, "money" means any currency, tokens, bank-notes, or other circulation medium in general use as the representative of value. Then under that several more sites are named.
Silver has the six aspects of money in a classical sense. It is divisible, durable, convenient, consistent, has utility value, and cannot be created by fiat. Silver is used as a medium of exchange and as a store of value."
RE Tin: I am WRONG:
www.britishmuseum.org/...
Also, I forgot that much coinage has a percentage of tin in the alloy. But, psychologically, could tin stand next to gold or silver by itself?
If we look back throughout history at the totems and tokens of statehood, royalty, ruling castes it is obvious that silver is present but tin, aside from utilitarian uses, does not hold as much intrinsic value in the eyes of humankind.
Cheers!
Silver Sell Off Hitting Historic Levels [View article]
the floor as commercial and institutional buyers will now have their buy-in dip. If these large retail funds move even 1%+ in PM holdings, the whole niche will explode...UT is the first, and just added another 500 million in physical gold.
Silver: Why I'm Still Short [View article]
That 747 you speak of is actually doing a flyby at 300mph
BUT it is fuel by paper currency printing and sovereign debt structures.
Missing the big picture that is there allows one to paint any backdrop they want.
Silver Is in Blow-off Phase - Top Could Be Near [View article]
"The latest projections from the Japanese Finance Ministry regarding the fiscal year which started on April 1 make for sobering reading. They say that Japan’s “public” (funded) debt will probably rise by 5.8 percent this year - to 997.7 TRILLION Yen ($US 12.2 TRILLION at current exchange rates). Should these projections be even slightly on the optimistic side - and government financial projections always are - then Japan could easily be looking at a public debt of 1,000 TRILLION Yen by March 31, 2012.
There is another way of expressing 1,000 TRILLION.
It is the same as ONE QUADRILLION."
The collective economic human mind has breached yet another psychological barrier it would seem. Sovereign debt structures have just jumped by a magnitude.
Silver Is in Blow-off Phase - Top Could Be Near [View article]
In fact, there is enough information about gold and silver throughout history to have a valuation ratio between the two metals that spans millennia.
Tin, as far as I know, has never been used as money.
Feb. Nonfarm Payrolls: +192K vs. consensus +185K, +63K prior (revised). Unemployment 8.9% vs 9.1% expected, 9% prior. Avg. hourly earnings +$0.01. to $22.87. [View news story]
'Soylent Green is PEOPLE!'
From Angel Martin: "and the trend for the market will be up..."
...until the easing stops.
Do some real research on correlations between markets and QE policy.
Its very illuminating.
RE: Official Gov Unemployment numbers? bwahahaha...ha...
Funny and distressing at the same time.
Silver is plunging in early trading Sunday evening, -12.1% at $42.73. No particular news, but there is (make that was) a lot of air underneath the price. Ed Bradford at Full Carry notes the metal was trading 88% above its 200 day moving average. Gold is spared any damage thus far. [View news story]
12-18 months typically if I remember correctly.
With that said there is A LOT of very, very fresh currency sitting on the sidelines.
Silver Fever Is About to Break [View article]
BTD
Silver Fever Is About to Break [View article]
It would seem that the shorts either take one or the other in sights.
Big question now is how fast the dip will be bought.